Sina Mei News Beijing time 12 news, the CEO of two-line Capital (DoubleLine Capital), known as the "new debt king" Geoffrey-Ganglak (Jeffrey Gundlach) said that he now believes that the U. S. economy into recession next year is unlikely, the situation has changed a lot when he predicted in June that the rate of recession in the United States in the coming year was as high as 65%.

The move comes after Gunrac's two-tier capital last month cut its forecast for the chances of a US recession in 2020 from 75 per cent to 40 per cent.

"We have never experienced a recession without negative leading indicators," Gunrac said on Wednesday. The leading indicator is currently at a low level. Our forecast is that the situation will improve, which makes it unlikely that we will have a recession in the next six to 12 months. "

Gunrake points out that consumer perceptions of the current situation must deteriorate sharply and there must be a surge in weekly jobless claims before there will be a recession. Although consumer confidence has weakened in recent months, it is still at a relatively high level. Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims fell to a seven-month low in the week to November 30.

Earlier this year, as global manufacturing activity slowed and business sentiment was affected by global trade conflicts, investors became increasingly concerned about the possibility of a recession. But manufacturing activity has stabilized since then, while recent optimism about the easing of trade conflicts pushed the stock market to record highs in October and November.