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美联储官员古尔斯比:如果经济恶化,将采取措施修复

Fed official Guoersibi: If the economy deteriorates, measures will be taken to repair it.

Golden10 Data ·  Aug 5 21:42

To calm the market? Guerspia said that the Federal Reserve will respond to economic deterioration, but he also claimed that he did not see signs of a recession.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Guerspia said on Monday that the Federal Reserve will respond to signs of economic weakness and that current interest rates may be too strict.

When asked if the weakness in the job market and manufacturing would prompt the Federal Reserve to take action, Guerspia did not promise a specific course of action, but said that it is meaningless to maintain a "restrictive" policy stance if the economy is weakening.

"The Fed's job is very simple, that is, to maximize employment, stabilize prices, and maintain financial stability. That is what we have to do," he said in an interview with CNBC's "Squawk Box" program.

This interview coincided with a period of global market turmoil. On Monday, the United States suffered a three-hit in stocks, bonds and currencies. The three major US stock indexes fell sharply at the opening, with the Dow down 1,070 points, the S&P 500 down 4.2%, and the Nasdaq down 6%.

Wall Street's fears were sparked by the weak non-farm data released last Friday. At that time, data showed that only 114,000 non-farm jobs were added, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, triggering a signal known as the Sam rule indicating that the economy may be entering a recession.

However, Guerspia said he doesn't think the situation is like that.

"The performance of employment data is weaker than expected, but it doesn’t look like a recession,” he said, adding: “I do think that when we make decisions, we should look forward.

Guerspia emphasized that the margin of error for monthly employment data is 0.1 million, so don't make a hasty conclusion.

When asked about the market's call for emergency rate cuts, Guerspia said that options including rate hikes and cuts have always been on the table, and the Federal Reserve will take measures to repair the economy if it deteriorates.

Guerspia also acknowledged that the Federal Reserve's current policy is restrictive, a stance that should only be taken when the economy appears overheated. Since July 2023, the Federal Reserve has kept its benchmark interest rate between 5.25% and 5.5%, the highest level in about 23 years.

"Should we reduce the restrictiveness of our policy rates? I don't plan to constrain our options because we will still get more information. But if the economy is not overheating, we should not take substantive tightening or restrictive measures," he said.

Policymakers have been focusing on the "real" federal funds rate, which is the federal benchmark rate minus inflation. Unless the Federal Reserve chooses to cut interest rates, when inflation falls, real interest rates will rise, limiting economic growth.

The market expects the Federal Reserve to enter an actively loose monetary cycle, with a 100% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, and a high probability of another 50 basis point rate cut in November and December.

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The translation is provided by third-party software.


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