公司核心业务稳步增长，养殖板块扭亏为盈。公司核心业务为饲料、种苗和动保，合计营收占比在80%以上。2024 年上半年，公司饲料业务销售收入413.41 亿元，受饲料价格下降导致营收同比-3.19%；饲料销量约1179 万吨（含内部养殖耗用量 98 万吨），同比增长约8.5%。其中，水产饲料外销量同比增长约10%，禽饲料外销量同比增长约14%，猪饲料同比下滑7%，对比全国中小养殖户市场下降情况，公司猪饲料市场份额提升。2024 年上半年，公司养殖板块实现收入84.23 亿元，占比16.11%，同比增长11.96%；公司养殖板块出栏肥猪约270 万头，在猪价上行带动下养殖板块业绩同比扭亏为盈。在养殖成本方面，公司团队管理能力和专业能力提升，综合养殖成本取得进步。未来，公司将坚持轻资产、低风险的生猪养殖模式，维持稳健运作模式。Key points of investment:
The company's performance was in line with forecasts, and net profit reached an inflection point. According to the company's announcement, total revenue of 52.296 billion yuan was achieved in the first half of 2024, a slight decrease of 0.84% year on year, mainly due to falling prices of agricultural products from bulk feed raw materials driving down the unit price of feed products; net profit to mother was 2.125 billion yuan, an increase of 93.15% year on year, mainly due to increased market share and profit level of the main feed industry, which combined with the farming sector turned losses into profits; net profit after deducting net profit of 2.033 billion yuan, up 87.98% year on year; net operating cash flow It was 1.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of -65.72%, mainly due to a decrease in cash received from falling feed prices in the first half of the year, combined with an increase in payment for raw materials.
Competition in the industry has intensified, and the company's market share has further increased. In the first half of 2024, with the decline in raw material prices for upstream agricultural products in the industry, profits at breeding terminals improved, but the recovery in consumer demand fell short of expectations, terminal catering was poor, and overall consumer demand was weak, leading to weak growth in feed demand. According to statistics from the Feed Industry Association, feed production declined to a high level in the first half of the year due to factors such as optimal adjustment of pig production capacity and livestock product consumption not yet returning to expected levels. The country's total industrial feed output was 145.39 million tons, down 4.1% year on year. However, in the first half of the year, the company's feed sales increased by about 8.5% year-on-year. The company's feed business ushered in contrarian growth during the overall downturn of the industry, and its market share was further increased.
The company's core business grew steadily, and the aquaculture sector turned losses into profits. The company's core business is feed, seedlings and animal insurance, accounting for more than 80% of total revenue. In the first half of 2024, the company's feed business sales revenue was 41.341 billion yuan, a year-on-year revenue of -3.19% due to falling feed prices; feed sales were about 11.79 million tons (including 0.98 million tons of internal farming consumption), an increase of about 8.5% over the previous year. Among them, the export sales volume of aquatic feed increased by about 10% year on year, the export sales of poultry feed increased by about 14% year on year, and pig feed fell 7% year on year. Compared with the decline in the national market for small and medium-sized farmers, the company's pig feed market share increased. In the first half of 2024, the company's breeding sector achieved revenue of 8.423 billion yuan, accounting for 16.11%, an increase of 11.96% over the previous year; the company's breeding sector listed about 2.7 million fat pigs, and the performance of the breeding sector turned a year-on-year loss into a profit driven by rising pig prices. In terms of farming costs, the company's team management ability and professional ability have improved, and comprehensive farming costs have improved. In the future, the company will adhere to an asset-light, low-risk pig breeding model and maintain a steady operating model.
The company's profit level has increased significantly. In terms of profit level, in the first half of 2024, the gross margin of the company's feed sector was 9.76%, +0.92 pcts; the gross profit margin of the farming sector was 16.89%, +9.9pcts year on year; and the gross profit margin of animal insurance products was 57.79%, +6.43 pcts year on year.
On a quarterly basis, 2024Q1's gross profit margin was 10.75%, +2.36 pcts year on year, net profit margin 3.88% +, 2. PCTS compared to 02; 2024Q2 company's gross profit margin was 11.46%, +2.23 pcts year on year, net profit margin 4.56%, +2.04pcts year over year. 2024H1's management expenses and sales expenses were +14.86% and +10.81% year-on-year respectively, mainly due to the expansion of business scale in the first half of the year, the increase in personnel, the increase in the level of remuneration incentives, and the increase in business promotion expenses.
Maintain the company's “gain” investment rating. Taking into account the company's pig sector's performance turning losses into profit and continuing increase in market share, it is estimated that in 2024-2026, net profit to mother will be 4.52/5.206/5.729 billion yuan, corresponding EPS of 2.72/3.13/3.44 yuan, respectively, and corresponding PE 15.49/13.45/12.22, respectively. According to the comparable company's price-earnings ratio in 2025, the company is within a reasonable valuation range. Considering the growth of the company's future performance, the company maintains an investment rating of increasing its holdings.
Risk warning: There is a risk that the price of feed raw materials will fluctuate greatly, pig prices will fluctuate greatly, and that the breeding and animal insurance business will not advance as expected.
