TrendForce predicts that the VR/MR device shipments have the opportunity to reach 37.3 million units in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2023 to 2030 of 23%.
According to the TrendForce report, VR/MR has made good development foundations in entertainment and gaming, and the addition of Apple Vision Pro in 2024 will open up new opportunities for VR/MR applications. Although prices are currently high and service content is limited, these issues will be improved over time. As a result, TrendForce predicts that VR/MR device shipments have the opportunity to reach 37.3 million units in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2023 to 2030 of 23%.
According to the latest Near-Eye Display report by TrendForce, the overall shipments of near-eye displays will increase year by year in the coming years after inventory digestion. It is expected that OLEDoS will dominate the high-end VR/MR market, and its technological ratio will increase to 23% in 2030. LCD will continue to dominate the mainstream market, and its technological ratio for near-eye display devices will be 63%.
TrendForce defines VR/MR devices as near-eye display devices that achieve immersive experiences through single display components, and emphasizes that those that combine transparent penetration and virtual and real application scenarios are considered AR devices.
Manufacturer layout promotes OLEDoS penetration in VR/MR market.
According to TrendForce, the cooperation between Sony and Apple on Vision Pro has established OLEDoS' dominant position in the high-end VR/MR market. The two giants have shown that VR/MR devices will actively pursue high resolution and also increase industry attention to OLEDoS. OLEDoS uses CMOS technology and achieves higher luminous efficiency through top-emitting OLED components, pushing the basic specifications of OLEDoS product resolution to above 3,000 PPI. TrendForce points out that due to the complexity and low yield of CMOS manufacturing technology, the production cost of OLEDoS display screens is high, which limits its penetration growth.
TrendForce stated that in addition to international manufacturers actively deploying OLEDoS, Chinese manufacturers such as Visionox and BOE are also continuously following up, which will drive the expansion of this technology in the VR/MR device market in the future and help CMOS reduce costs and improve yield subsequently. OLEDoS still has potential in the high-end market. TrendForce predicts that its technological ratio will increase from 7% in 2024 to 23% in 2030.
Investment in development resources and display specification iteration consolidate the competitiveness of LCD.
In the mainstream market of near-eye display devices, LCD technology has always occupied a dominant position due to Meta's consideration of cost-effectiveness. However, these devices continue to pursue higher resolution and image quality, while LCD products have only a display specification of 1,200 PPI, which has been challenged by other technologies. TrendForce predicts that the shipment scale of LCD near-eye display products in 2024 will be 6.8 million units, a decrease of about 5.6% compared to 2023.
TrendForce pointed out that there is still room for optimization of the complex components of LCD. For example, improving liquid crystal materials to reduce dizziness and upgrading backplane technology to improve resolution to 1,500 PPI. BOE invests a lot of development resources in the use of LCD in near-eye display devices and continuously updates and iterates the display specifications of LCD in VR/MR devices, which will maintain the strong competitiveness of this technology in the mid-to-low-end market. TrendForce predicts that LCD technology will account for 63% in 2030.
During the production process of OLED, the luminescent material after evaporation coating cannot completely cover the display screen, which can easily deepen the “screen door effect” caused by VR/MR devices. TrendForce pointed out that the competitiveness of OLED technology in the high-end market is inferior to that of OLEDoS, and its cost-effectiveness cannot match with LCD products. In addition, the penetration rate of OLED in the VR/MR market is long-term restricted by its dependence on specific manufacturers. TrendForce predicts that the technological ratio of OLED in the VR/MR market will remain between 13% and 15% from 2024 to 2030.
During the OLED production process, the light-emitting material cannot completely cover the display screen after vapor deposition, which easily deepens the "screen door effect" when using VR/MR devices. TrendForce LEDinside stated that the competitiveness of OLED technology in the high-end market is inferior to that of OLEDoS, and the cost performance is unable to match LCD products. In addition, OLED is more dependent on specific manufacturers in the VR/MR market, and its penetration rate is restricted in the long term. TrendForce LEDinside estimates that the OLED technology share in the VR/MR market will remain at 13% to 15% between 2024 and 2030.