Some radical analyses believe that the Fed has a reason to take action before the September meeting, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut within a week is 60%.
As global economic uncertainty intensifies, the market is starting to price in the possibility of the Fed unexpectedly cutting interest rates by 25 basis points within a week.
On Monday, global stock markets collectively collapsed, and the panic in the market led investors to bet heavily on central banks around the world cutting interest rates.
Some radical analyses believe that the Fed has a reason to take action before the September meeting, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut within a week is 60%.
Goldman Sachs previously predicted that the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, November and December. In addition, Goldman Sachs said that if its forecast is wrong and the August employment report is as weak as July, then there is a high probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September. Citigroup also said that it could cut rates by 50 basis points in September and November.
JPMorgan economists have also changed their views on the Fed's forecast and expect interest rates to be cut by 50 basis points at the September and November policy meetings. They also believe that there is a "strong reason" for the Fed to take action before the scheduled policy announcement on September 18. Emergency rate cuts during meetings are extremely rare and are only used when officials believe there is a serious risk that they cannot wait until the next decision. The last time the Fed cut rates in an emergency was at the beginning of the epidemic. According to the original plan, the next interest rate decision will be announced on September 18.
Bets on interest rate cuts by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are also on the rise. Some investors previously believed that the probability of the Bank of England cutting interest rates in September was over 50%. For the European Central Bank, traders expect two interest rate cuts by October, and the expectation of a significant interest rate cut in September is not far away.
In the product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan was 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.
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