According to a report released by Yinzuo International, the increase of nonfarm employment in the United States in July was significantly lower than the market expectation, and the figures of the past two months continue to be revised downward. New employment is increasingly concentrated in veterinary services, hotel leisure, and government departments. The increase of employment in the service industry has fallen to a low level since the outbreak. The salary growth rate continued to fall to 3.6%, which is close to the appropriate salary growth rate implied by 2% inflation target at 3.5%, indicating that the core service inflation will continue to decline. However, Yinzuo International pointed out that the sharp rise in the unemployment rate triggering the Sam Law does not necessarily mean that a recession is coming, because the main reason for the rise in this round of unemployment is the increase of labor force supply due to immigration inflow, and the number of employed people is still growing steadily. The level of corporate layoffs has not yet increased significantly. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the actual interest rate will remain high, and the effect of policy tightening will further emerge. The economy and inflation will continue to slow down. The attention of the Federal Reserve will shift from anti-inflation to balancing the dual goals of stable prices and maximizing employment. The bank believes that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in September, and cut interest rates again in December, with a total decline of 50 basis points for the year, and further decline by 100 basis points next year. The GDP growth rate in the United States may fall from 2.5% last year to 2.2% this year and 1.8% next year.

Newly added employment in the United States is increasingly concentrated in veterinary services, hotel leisure, and government departments, and the increase of employment in the service industry falls to a low level since the outbreak. The salary growth rate continues to fall to 3.6%, which is close to the appropriate salary growth rate implied by 2% inflation target at 3.5%, indicating that the core service inflation will continue to decline.

However, Yinzuo International pointed out that the sharp rise in the unemployment rate triggering the Sam Law does not necessarily mean that a recession is coming, because the main reason for the rise in this round of unemployment is the increase of labor force supply due to immigration inflow, and the number of employed people is still growing steadily. The level of corporate layoffs has not yet increased significantly.

The bank believes that, looking ahead to the second half of the year, the actual interest rate will remain high, and the effect of policy tightening will further emerge. The economy and inflation will continue to slow down. The attention of the Federal Reserve will shift from anti-inflation to balancing the dual goals of stable prices and maximizing employment. The Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in September, and cut interest rates again in December, with a total decline of 50 basis points for the year, and further decline by 100 basis points next year. The GDP growth rate in the United States may fall from 2.5% last year to 2.2% this year and 1.8% next year.