首次覆盖，给 予“增持”评级。预计公司FY2024-2026 营业收入分别为71.11/101.26/132.47 亿元，归母净利润分别为10.03/14.52/19.09亿元。公司定位高端，享有较为明显的品牌溢价与用户口碑，且单店销售增长与门店拓展均具备强劲增速，成长空间可期，给予 2024财年16.2x PE，目标价103.37 港元，首次覆盖，给予“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company upholds high-end brand positioning and builds core competitive barriers through product+channel+brand combination; domestic single-store efficiency is steadily improving, opening stores doubles the room for growth; and the overseas layout targets international luxury brands, and the space is vast.
Key points of investment:
Covered for the first time, a “gain” rating was given. The company's FY2024-2026 revenue is estimated to be 7.111/10.126/13.247 billion yuan, and net profit to mother is 1.003/1.452/1.909 billion yuan, respectively. The company is positioned at the high-end, enjoys obvious brand premiums and user reviews, and has strong growth rates in single-store sales growth and store expansion. The room for growth can be expected. It was given 16.2x PE in FY2024, with a target price of HK$103.37. It covered for the first time, and gave it an “gain” rating.
The ancient French gold market continues to expand, and brands have broad prospects for overseas markets. The company upholds the high-end brand position and continues to lead the industry trend with categories such as ancient gold and pure gold inlay. Ancient French gold is the category with the highest growth potential and fastest growth rate in the Chinese gold and jewelry market. It corresponds to the 100 billion domestic market, and the increased added value of the process drives the continuous expansion of the market; the gold consumer markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe are all worth 10 billion US dollars, and there is great potential for gold and jewelry brands to go overseas.
Product+channel+brand combination to build core competitive barriers. ① Product-based: The company adheres to ancient handmade goldsmithing processes, creates a hierarchical product matrix for ancient handmade gold products, and innovates and develops new product trends; ② Channel construction barriers: offline stores expand steadily around high-end commercial centers, invest heavily in assets to build competitive barriers, build brand mentality, gradually establish brand mentality, and gradually establish brand mentality. The level of store efficiency clearly leads the industry. The online platform radiates the whole country; ③ Strong brand influence: Adhere to handmade craftsmanship, from high-end jewelry to everyday wear and maintain the supply of gold products Scarcity given; product strategy targets luxury goods, unification of all direct management Pricing takes over consumers' minds by strengthening brand imprint, increasing the proportion of pure gold inlay, weakening the correlation between gold prices, and building differentiated brand positioning and strong brand tone.
Look at domestic store expansion in the medium term, and look at brands going overseas in the long term. The company's domestic business growth is driven by: ① The efficiency of domestic single stores is improving, and there is still room for growth compared to mature stores and overseas luxury jewelry, and the average single store revenue is expected to reach 0.3-0.4 billion yuan/year in the mature stage; ② the steady expansion of domestic stores, targeting about 60-100 international luxury brands in the Chinese market, and the domestic store layout still has room to double; ③ brand potential can increase the penetration rate of high-net-worth individuals. In 2023, the penetration rate of domestic high-net-worth people is only 6%, and there is still plenty of room for penetration improvement. We have been following the internationalization process of brands for a long time, and have a broad scope for international luxury brands such as Tiffany and Cartier as the global channel layout.
Risk warning: Fluctuations in gold prices and the impact of the external economic environment, increased risk of market competition, etc.
