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• Fed officials assess non-farm payroll report: decision makers will not overreact to monthly data.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans emphasized that the Fed will not overreact to any monthly economic reports. He also added that policymakers will receive a lot of data before the next interest rate meeting.

Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population reached 0.114 million in July, the smallest increase since April 2024, far lower than the expected 0.175 million; The unemployment rate in July rose for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 4.3%, the highest level in nearly three years.

• Wall Street reviews non-farm payroll: It is not a question of whether to cut interest rates in September, but whether to cut 50 basis points or not.

Due to the latest announcement of the rising US unemployment rate, the economists from Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley have successively adjusted their forecasts of the Fed interest rate path, forecasting that the Fed will lower borrowing costs earlier, more substantially, and more frequently. After the data was released, the teams at Citigroup and Morgan Stanley predicted that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points each in September and November, and will cut interest rates by 25 basis points each time starting from the December meeting. According to their statements, this means that the Fed needs to cut interest rates by 125 basis points (50+50+25) this year.

• Goldman Sachs exposes the shift of "smart money": hedge funds sell North American stocks and buy Chinese stocks.

Goldman Sachs brokerage's latest data show that recently, 'smart money' has fled US stocks and flowed into equity markets in emerging markets such as China. According to data from its commercial brokerage business records as of last Friday, August 2nd, hedge funds sold global stocks overall for the third consecutive week. Hedge funds net bought Chinese stocks for the first time in three weeks and created the largest net purchase scale in two months; Hedge funds sold medical health sectors at the fastest rate since August last year, and non-essential consumer goods were the most net purchased sector.

• Voting with their feet on the economy? Hedge funds were net short on commodities for the first time since 2016.

Due to the far worse-than-expected and previous non-farm payroll data, market panic triggered concerns about economic recession. Hedge funds have turned to bearish bulk commodity futures, the first large-scale short-selling behavior since 2016. According to data, as of the week ending July 30th, fund managers held nearly 58,600 net short positions and bet on a basket of 20 raw material price declines. This is the first time in more than eight years that investors have held net bearish bets.

• Coinbase CEO: Regardless of the election outcome, the US government will be friendly to cryptos.

Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, predicted that the next US government will adopt a constructive attitude towards cryptocurrencies regardless of which party wins. Armstrong said on a post-earnings conference call that as an important voting group, cryptocurrency advocates are making their voices heard, and politicians from both parties have noticed this, and the momentum for comprehensive cryptocurrency-related legislation is growing stronger.

Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.

• Weak non-farm payroll exacerbates concerns, three major indexes plummeted, NASDAQ fell more than 2%.

Last Friday, after the weak US non-farm employment data was released, market concerns about economic recession further intensified, and the three major indices collectively plummeted, with Nasdaq leading the decline with a decrease of more than 2%.

By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.51% to 39,737.26 points; the S&P 500 Index fell 1.84% to 5,346.56 points; and the Nasdaq Index fell 2.43% to 16,776.16 points.

Large tech stocks collectively fell, with Intel down 26.06%, Amazon down 8.78%, Tesla down 4.24%, Google down 2.40%, Microsoft down 2.07%, NVIDIA down 1.78%, and Meta down 1.93%; Apple rose against the trend by 0.69%, becoming the only tech giant to record an increase.

Popular China concept stocks generally fell, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index falling 1.84%, Netease falling 1.24%, Xpeng Motor falling 0.92%, Li Auto falling 0.88%, Alibaba falling 0.68%, JD.com falling 0.32%, Pinduoduo falling 0.32%, Nio Inc. falling 0.25%, and Bilibili rising 1.77%.

• Berkshire Hathaway reduced its Apple holdings by nearly half in Q2, and its cash reserves reached a record $276.9 billion.

$Berkshire Hathaway-B (BRK.B.US)$According to the Q2 financial report, Berkshire's Q2 revenue was $93.653 billion, up from $92.503 billion in the same period last year and an expected $91.09 billion in the market; Q2 net income was $30.35 billion, expected $17.786 billion in the market; After massive reduction of Apple's shares, the cash reserve reached a record $276.9 billion.

As of June 30, 72% of the total fair value of Berkshire's equity investments is concentrated in five companies: Apple ($84.2 billion), Bank of America ($41.1 billion), American Express ($35.1 billion), Coca-Cola ($25.5 billion) and Chevron ($18.6 billion). As of publication, Apple's overnight trading fell more than 7%.

• Coinbase fell nearly 4%, and its Q2 revenue continued to grow, but its net profit fell 97% quarter-on-quarter.

$Coinbase (COIN.US)$According to the Q2 2024 financial report, Coinbase's Q2 revenue was $1.45 billion, down 11% from the previous quarter, almost in line with analysts' expectations of $1.37 billion; Q2 transactional revenue was $0.7809 billion, and analysts expected $0.7451 billion; Q2 net profit was $36 million, down 97% quarter-on-quarter, with an EPS of $0.14.

• Nvidia responds to AI chip shortage: Blackwell samples are widely tested, and production will increase in the second half of the year.

Regarding$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$In response to reports that the release of NVIDIA's AI chip was delayed, on August 4, NVIDIA responded to reporters: "As we said before, the demand for Hopper is very strong, and Blackwell's sample trials have begun widely, and production is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In addition, we have no comments on rumors." Earlier, media reports had said that a design flaw in NVIDIA's AI chip could lead to a delay of three months or longer, affecting customers such as Meta, Google and Microsoft. As of publication, NVIDIA's overnight trading fell more than 7%.

• Shipping is booming! For the third time since May, Maersk has raised its profit guidance, and the duration of the Red Sea turmoil has been much longer than expected.

Due to the ongoing interruption of the Red Sea supply chain and strong demand in the container market pushing up freight rates, the world's second largest container shipping company$A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S Unsponsored ADR (AMKBY.US)$Once again raised its performance expectations. This is the third time the company has raised profit guidance since May, demonstrating the strong momentum in the shipping market. The latest announcement from Maersk Group stated that it is expected that basic operating profit for the year will be between 3 billion and 5 billion US dollars, higher than the June forecast of 1 billion to 3 billion US dollars. In February of this year, the Group predicted a loss of up to $5 billion.

• Meta is reportedly in talks with Hollywood movie stars about an AI voice project and will offer millions of dollars to obtain authorization.

According to people familiar with the matter cited by the media,$Meta Platforms (META.US)$It hopes to use the voices of some Hollywood stars in its artificial intelligence (AI) project and has offered millions of dollars in licensing fees for this purpose. Negotiations are ongoing. Meta is accelerating negotiations to have enough time to develop AI tools for release at the September Connect conference.

If you want to play this game, you must believe in yourself and your judgment.

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

• Beishui increased its holdings of Xiaomi by nearly HKD 0.5 billion and sold more than HKD 0.5 billion of HSBC Holdings.

On August 2, Southbound funds net sold HKD 1.896 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$,$CCB (00939.HK)$,$TENCENT (00700.HK)$Net purchases were HKD 0.49 billion, 0.335 billion, and 0.306 billion, respectively;

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$Hang Seng H-Share Index ETF (02828.HK)$,$HSBC Holdings (HSBC.US)$They were net sold HKD 2.923 billion, 0.799 billion, and 0.502 billion, respectively.    

The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

- Key words: S&P Global Services PMI for July in the US, ISM non-manufacturing PMI for July in the US, speech by Fed official Gulbisby, Palantir earnings report

On Monday, economic data will be released such as the final value of S&P Global Services PMI for July in the US, ISM non-manufacturing PMI for July in the US, and the PPI for June in the Eurozone.

In terms of financial events, 2025 FOMC voting member and chairman of the Chicago Fed Gulbisby will be interviewed by CNBC.

Regarding financial reports,$Palantir (PLTR.US)$,$Lucid Group (LCID.US)$The financial report will be released after the US stock market closes.

Regarding IPOs,$BLACK SESAME (02533.HK)$the IPO subscription has ended.

Margin of safety: When building a bridge, you insist on a load of 0.03 million pounds, but only allow trucks weighing 0.01 million pounds to shuttle through. The same principle applies to the investment field.

- Buffett

Editor/ping