在整体营收低基数下，24 年公司有望重回业绩高增。1）药品集采系统性风险降低：23 年公司在江苏集采中丢标对业绩造成一定波动，24 年广东集采中标且降价幅度有限；2）后续减值风险低：23 年对应急产品存货及对收购博思美形成的商誉已计提减值，对利润的负面影响已经消除；博鳌生物甘精胰岛素产品中标全国集采，后续无商誉减值风险；3）人员优化并加强精益化管理：23 年以乐普诊断为主的人员架构调整后公司迈入精益化阶段。Key points of investment:
The painful period has passed, multiple negative factors have been cleared, and performance is expected to return to high growth.
The company is the only domestic company covering the full life cycle management of cardiovascular diseases. Its main business involves devices, pharmaceuticals, medical services and health management. After three years of structural adjustment, it has gradually overcome the difficulties of collecting pharmaceuticals and stents, and factors such as disturbances in the epidemic base have gradually receded.
With a low overall revenue base, the company is expected to return to high performance growth in '24. 1) Systemic risk reduction in drug collection: the company lost the bid in Jiangsu collection in '23, and the price reduction was limited; 2) Low risk of subsequent impairment: in '23, the risk of subsequent impairment was low: in '23, the negative impact on profits was eliminated; the negative impact on profits was eliminated; Boao Biogaracin insulin products won the bid for national collection; 3) Personnel optimization and strengthening lean management: personnel structure adjustments centered on Lepu Diagnosis in '23 After that, the company entered the lean phase.
Various innovative products, such as biodegradable PFO blockers and shock wave balloons, were launched, continuing to contribute to the growth momentum of the device sector.
Innovative products continue to contribute to the growth momentum of the device sector. 1) Major innovative coronary products continued to be launched: Shockwave Balloons were launched in January '24, creating the company's unique “diagnostic evaluation-pathway-calcification treatment-interventional treatment” coronary innovative product portfolio. 2) Iterative upgrading of structural core products: In September '23, memosorb was approved as the world's first degradable PFO occluder. It has commercialized everything from single/double nitride, single oxide film, to biodegradable and absorbable products. Xintai has maintained a gross margin of 88% + in recent years. 3) A rich matrix of research and production lines: Coronary and peripheral updates continue to be promoted, and production lines with valves, electrophysiology, etc. are completed. It is expected that 4-5 major products will be approved every year in the future.
In addition, various products such as staplers and ultrasound knives in the surgical anesthesia business have won the bid in centralized procurement by various inter-provincial alliances, and it is expected that the market coverage and share will be rapidly increased through collection.
Price reductions for core generic products have narrowed, and innovative drugs are being stored in multiple pipelines.
In the collection of drugs such as amoxicillin by the Guangdong Union in '24, the price reduction of the company's core products clopidogrel bisulfate and atorvastatin was less than 12%. We expect the prices of the above products to be close to the bottom, and the company has basically achieved a smooth transition of drugs in the collection cycle; combined with the advantage of self-supply of core APIs, the company's gross margin of the pharmaceutical sector has stabilized 65% + in recent years. Relying on the successive launch of more generic cardiovascular disease products and the expansion of indications, the pharmaceutical business is expected to resume growth.
The holding company is Biotech and has entered the field of innovative drugs for metabolic diseases. The company's self-developed GLP-1/gcGR/GIP-fc fusion protein MWN101 project is progressing smoothly. Phase II clinical trials for type 2 diabetes and obesity have been carried out, and it is expected that phase III clinical trials can be started in 25Q1.
Profit forecasting and investment advice
We expect the company's 2023-2026 revenue CAGR to be 12.6%, net profit CAGR to mother of 28.6%, and the current stock price corresponds to 12/10/9 times PE. Using the comparable company valuation method, it was calculated that the average PE for 24 years was 33 times. Considering the accelerated release of the company's innovative devices, and the impact of drug sector collection has weakened, and new formulations are being launched one after another, it is expected that the pharmaceutical business will grow steadily, be covered for the first time, and give a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Pharmaceutical device collection risks, product development risks falling short of expectations, and market competition exacerbate risks.
