It's been a pretty great week for Evolus, Inc. (NASDAQ:EOLS) shareholders, with its shares surging 13% to US$13.86 in the week since its latest quarterly results. The results were mixed overall, with revenues slightly ahead of analyst estimates at US$67m. Statutory losses by contrast were 8.0% larger than predictions at US$0.18 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
After the latest results, the seven analysts covering Evolus are now predicting revenues of US$267.1m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a decent 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are supposed to decline, shrinking 18% from last year to US$0.69. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$263.2m and losses of US$0.69 per share in 2024.
As a result there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$22.43, implying that the business is trading roughly in line with expectations despite ongoing losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Evolus, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$27.00 and the most bearish at US$16.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Evolus' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 27% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 40% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Evolus' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$22.43, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Evolus. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Evolus analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Evolus .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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