Focus on CHK and US stocks

US stocks closed | Non-farm payrolls triggered recession panic, all three major indexes fell, Nasdaq fell 2.43%, Intel plummeted over 26%.

来源：华尔街见闻
作者：房家瑶、杜玉

美国7月非农新增就业远逊预期和前值，失业率近三年最高，美国衰退担忧令市场显著加大今年降息押注至超过100个基点。

道指盘中最深跌约990点，与单日跌幅近两年最深的标普大盘均全周跌2%，纳指和纳指100从历史高位回调超10%，全周均跌超3%，芯片股指收跌超5%且全周跌近10%。“恐慌指数”VIX创去年3月来最高。英特尔暴跌26%，亚马逊一度跌近13%，苹果逆市涨。

10年期美债收益率周五狂泄19个基点至七个月最低，美元指数跌超1%至四个月最低，日元最高涨2%升破147，人民币半年新高。需求担忧令油价跌超3%且全周跌约5%，布油一度至半年盘中新低，避险黄金冲高回落但全周涨超2%。比特币周跌9%。

美国7月非农就业报告表现疲软，美国经济硬着陆风险上升，引发大规模避险情绪。美国7月非农就业人数从前值的17.9万大幅降至11.4万，且显著低于预期的17.5万，失业率升至4.3%为三年最高水平，并且触发了准确率高达100%的衰退指标——萨姆规则。

数据公布后，美股期货跌幅扩大，美债收益率跳水，美国2年期国债收益率一度下跌26个基点至2023年5月12日以来最低水平，所有期限美债收益率至少下滑12个基点。欧元区债券和英国国债收益率追随美债走低。美元指数跳水1%，日元涨2%升破147，离岸人民币涨超1000点创1月份以来新高，现货黄金日内走高涨近1.3%。

市场现在预计，美联储将在年内剩余的三次会议上会有相当于四次、每次25个基点的降息行动，总计消化的幅度约为108个基点，暗示预计其中一次将是50个基点。此番评估令美债的涨势延续到第七天。市场开始认为，美联储降息行动太迟了。

美国降息呼吁此起彼伏，美国参议院民主党成员伊丽莎白·沃伦表示，美联储主席鲍威尔不降息犯了一个“严重错误”，鲍威尔需要现在降息，而不是再等六周。华尔街大行们也纷纷调整降息预期。花旗集团预计美联储9月和11月将分别降息50个基点，并在12月的会议上降息25个基点。高盛预计美联储今年将降息75个基点，降息三次，此前预计降息50个基点。摩根大通预计美联储9月和11月将分别降息50个基点。

但部分经济学家持不同观点，他们认为，如果美联储降息50基点，将引起恐慌，市场对大幅降息的预期过于超前，美国就业数据还没有严峻到需要美联储采取紧急行动的水平。

两位美联储今年票委发言，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比警告不要对单月数据反应过度，9月会议前还能掌握更多数据。里士满联储主席巴尔金承认，一旦美国经济快速走软，通常触发大幅降息。

经济疲软促使市场大举押注更大幅度（和更早）的降息，目前预计2024年将降息116个基点，2025年将再降息100个基点

衰退恐慌加剧，纳指跌2.43%进入回调区间，英特尔暴跌26%，恐慌指数VIX盘中涨超59%

8月2日周五，美国衰退警报引发市场恐慌抛盘，美股指大幅低开且盘中大挫。

美股早盘公布爆冷非农数据后，主要股指均刷新日低，科技股居多的纳指尾盘最深跌近3.6%；标普500指数大盘最低跌近2.7%；与经济周期密切相关的道指最低跌近2.5%或跌989点；罗素小盘股指最低跌近4.4%。

截至收盘：

标普500指数收跌100.12点，跌幅1.84%，报5346.56点，逼近6月4日收盘位5291.34点，本周累计下跌2.06%，此前两周先后跌1.97%和0.83%。道指收跌610.71点，跌幅1.51%，报39737.26点，本周累跌2.10%，结束此前连涨四周的趋势。纳指收跌417.98点，跌幅2.43%，报16776.16点，本周累跌3.35%，延续此前两周先后跌3.65%和2.08%的表现。

纳指100跌2.38%；衡量纳指100科技业成份股表现的纳斯达克科技市值加权指数（NDXTMC）跌2.60%；罗素2000指数收跌3.52%；恐慌指数VIX收涨26.04%，报23.43，北京时间23:27涨至29.66，逼近30整数位心理关口和2023年3月13日顶部30.81。

费城半导体指数收跌5.18%，费城证交所KBW银行指数收跌4.32%，创2023年5月份以来最大单日跌幅。道琼斯KBW地区银行指数收跌3.34%。

VIX指数周五盘中最高涨至29.66，为2022年10月以来的最高水平，本周VVIX指数突破了100的关键恐慌水平，周五最高涨至162.68，为2022年3月以来的最高水平

标普500指数的11个板块中，可选消费板块在非农日收跌4.61%，金融、能源、工业板块至多跌2.42%，信息技术/科技板块跌1.99%，电信板块跌1.92%，原材料板块跌1.89%，而房地产板块涨0.09%，公用事业板块涨0.14%，日用消费品板块则涨0.86%。

本周，可选消费板块累计下跌4.28%，科技板块跌4.03%，能源板块跌3.74%，金融板块跌3.02%，工业板块跌2.79%，原材料板块跌1.39%，保健板块涨0.65%，日用消费品板块涨1.16%，电信板块涨1.26%，房地产板块涨3.10%，公用事业板块涨4.29%。

投研策略上：

美银策略师Michael Hartnett表示，由于美国出现更严重衰退的可能性增加，投资者应当在美联储首次降息时卖出股票。
高盛集团截至8月2日的机构经纪数据显示，对冲基金连续第三周减持全球股票，其中，对北美股票的卖盘超过了对其他地区的买盘。亚洲新兴市场为净买入最多的地区。中国股票三周来首次出现净买入，净买入规模为两个月来最大。

“科技七姐妹”除苹果外全线下跌，亚马逊、特斯拉、谷歌A等连跌四周。苹果收涨0.69%，本周累涨0.87%，此前两周先后跌2.7%和2.83%，公司连续六个季度营收和盈利均超预期，大中华区唯一下跌；英伟达英伟达收跌1.78%，本周累跌5.12%，此前两周先后跌8.75%和4.13%，公司因竞争对手投诉面临美国司法部反垄断调查；特斯拉收跌4.24%，本周累跌5.52%，此前三周先后跌1.31%、3.64%、8.11%。

亚马逊收跌8.78%，本周累计下跌8%，此前三周先后跌2.75%、5.84%、0.34%，Q3指引逊色，AI投入压力下云需求亮红灯，TD Cowen将亚马逊目标价从245美元下调至230美元；“元宇宙”Meta收跌1.93%，本周累涨4.82%，此前三周先后跌7.6%、4.43%、2.33%；微软收跌2.07%，本周累跌3.95%，此前三周先后跌3%、3.62%、2.71%；谷歌A收跌2.4%，本周累跌0.2%，此前三周先后跌2.9%、4%、6%。

据报道，对冲基金Elliott在致投资者的信中表示，大型科技股，尤其是英伟达是泡沫。大型科技公司是否会继续大量购买英伟达的图形处理器GPU令人怀疑，人工智能“被过度吹捧了，许多应用还没有准备好迎来黄金时期”。

芯片股几乎全线溃败。费城半导体指数跌5.18%且全周累跌9.7% ；行业ETF SOXX跌5.32%；英伟达两倍做多ETF跌4.14%。

台积电美股跌5.26%，Arm控股跌6.63%，高通跌2.86%，博通跌2.18%，AMD跌0.03%，科磊跌7.93%，安森美半导体跌5.49%，美光科技跌8.68%，盘中跌9.8%创最近四年来最差盘中表现。应用材料跌7.38%，阿斯麦ADR跌8.41%。

值得一提的是，英特尔业绩令市场失望，收跌超26%创下至少自1982年以来的最大跌幅，在费城半导体的30只成分股中表现最差。汇丰将英特尔评级下调至减持，目标价19.80美元，Raymond James和Benchmark将英特尔评级从买进下调至持有，标普将英特尔纳入信用负面观察清单。

AI概念股集体下跌。英伟达持股的AI机器人配送公司Serve Robotics跌15.24%，戴尔科技跌超5.6%，C3.ai跌约5.4%，英伟达持股的AI语音公司SoundHound AI跌0.86%，BigBear.ai跌4.29%，Snowflake跌3.57%，超微电脑跌7.08%，CrowdStrike跌2.82%，Palantir跌5.14%，甲骨文跌3.08%，而BullFrog AI涨5.54%。

中概股多数下跌。纳斯达克金龙中国指数收跌1.84%且全周累跌5.9%。ETF中，中概互联网指数ETF（KWEB）收跌1.16%、中国科技指数ETF（CQQQ）收跌0.8%。

热门中概股里，“教培概念股”好未来跌6.72%，新东方跌2.93%，“造车新势力”中，蔚来跌0.25%，小鹏跌0.92%，理想汽车跌0.88%，极氪跌0.52%；京东跌0.32%，拼多多跌0.32%，腾讯控股（ADR）跌0.82%，百度跌2.23%，阿里巴巴跌0.68%，网易跌1.24%，而B站则涨1.77%。

受经济衰退影响最大的股票也出现下跌，美国银行股普遍收跌。摩根大通跌4.24%，富国银行跌6.36%，花旗集团跌7.14%。摩根士丹利收跌5.81%。

值得注意的是，摩根士丹利2024年首次被分析师降级至看空。富国银行分析师Mike Mayo下调摩根士丹利评级至低配（之前为平配），称某些业务承压造成其估值（在行业内）偏高。该分析师认为，大摩的财富管理部门面临诸多逆风。

其他因财报而变动较大个股中：

雪佛龙跌2.7%，Q2净利润同比下降26%未达预期。RBC将雪佛龙的目标股价从190美元下调至180美元。
埃克森美孚石油公司高开低走，尾盘接近收复1.3%的跌幅，Q2利润超预期，预计今年回购超190亿美元的股票。今年5月初收购先锋自然资源后，公司石油和天然气产量创下历史新高。埃克森美孚首席执行官表示，看到“非常强劲”的石油需求。全球石油供应保持原油价格健康。
“散户抱团股”AMC院线收跌3.52%，公司二季度营收符合预期，调整后每股亏损0.43美元也好于预期，美股盘后一度涨3.21%。
Coinbase收跌3.86%，公司Q2营收同比增长105%，环比下降11%，Q2净利润3600万美元，环比下降97%，去年同期净亏损9700万美元。Jefferies将Coinbase目标价从215美元上调至245美元，并维持“持有”评级。美银证券将Coinbase的价格目标从263美元下调至246美元。
社交媒体股Snap收跌26.93%，公司二季度营收及三季度业绩展望均不及市场预期。汇丰将Snap公司评级下调至持有，目标价11美元。TD Cowen将Snap目标价从14美元下调至11美元。
阿根廷电商Mercadolibre（MELI）收涨10.59%，报1776.14美元，收盘市值突破900亿美元，市值超越巴西石油公司Petrobras，成为拉美地区最具价值的公司。
数字货币概念股/区块链概念股普跌。Bit Digital收跌12.87%，网红券商Robinhood、Bitdeer、Bitfarms至多跌11.66%，Riot Platforms跌超8%，“比特币持仓大户”微策投资MSTR跌超4.2%，以太币ETF QETH跌3.89%，数字货币交易所Coinbase跌3.86%，两倍做空比特币ETF则收涨2.47%，优点互动IDEX涨26.95%。
金银矿业股普遍收跌。Avino Silver跌8.82%，科尔黛伦矿业跌8.33%，赫克拉矿业跌7.32%，泛美白银跌超5%，哈莫尼黄金跌约3.9%，金田公司跌约3.2%，金矿股ETF GDX跌超2.1%。

美国非农就业不佳引爆衰退恐慌，投资者对美联储、欧洲央行和英国央行的年内降息押注均显著升温，欧股连续两日大跌，科技板块周五盘中重挫超6%，泛欧股指和德意国家股指均跌超2%，意大利银行指数本周跌超8.6%：

泛欧Stoxx 600指数收跌2.73%，报497.85点，5月15日涨至524.71点创收盘历史最高位以来，累计回调将近5.12%，最近两个交易日累跌3.92%，近日已经失守50日均线和100日均线，本周累计下跌2.92%。
欧元区STOXX 50指数收跌2.67%，报4638.70点，跌穿200日均线（该技术指标暂报4742.48点），逼近2月1日收盘位4638.60点和1月17日收盘位4403.08点，本周累跌4.60%。
本周板块方面，STOXX 600银行指数累计下跌7.78%，科技指数跌6.27%，房地产指数涨2.70%。
德国DAX 30指数收跌2.33%，较5月15日所创收盘历史最高位18869.36点回调超过6.40%，本周累计下跌4.11%。法国CAC 40指数收跌1.61%，5月15日以8239.99点创收盘历史最高位以来，累计回调超11.99%，本周累跌3.54%。
意大利富时MIB指数收跌2.55%，本周累跌5.30%。英国富时100指数收跌1.31%，本周累跌1.34%。荷兰AEX指数收跌3.11%，本周累跌3.06%、西班牙IBEX 35指数收跌1.67%，本周累跌4.42%。

波动较大个股中：

欧洲科技板块重挫，ASM国际收跌12.63%，阿斯麦控股跌11.18%，较收盘历史高位回调超25%，BE半导体实业公司跌9.34%。

“非农日”两年期美债收益率狂跌超26个基点，美债已经七连涨，成“美国硬着陆”避险首选

尾盘时，对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率跌26.64个基点，报3.8798%，非农数据公布后跌26个基点，从4.1%跳水至3.8408%，为2023年5月12日以来最低水平，本周累跌50.35个基点。

美国10年期基准国债收益率下跌18.56个基点，报3.7904%，北京时间20:30发布美国非农就业报告时从3.93%一线跳水至3.8%下方，03:51（临近美股收盘）刷新日低至3.7847%，逼近2023年12月27日底部3.7815%，全天处于下跌状态，本周累计下跌40.35个基点。

分析称，本周美债收益率全线大幅下降，仅周五两年期国债收益率下跌近30个基点，本周更是大幅下跌50个基点，周五是自2023年12月（鲍威尔转变立场）以来两年期收益率的最大跌幅，也是自2023年3月（SVB崩盘）以来的最大周跌幅。

美债收益率曲线已反转，两年期和30年期美债收益率利差目前处于2022年7月以来的最陡峭水平

欧元区债券和英国国债追随美债走高。欧元区基准的10年期德债收益率下跌7.0个基点，报2.174%，本周累计下跌23.4个基点。两年期德债收益率跌10.2个基点，报2.352%，本周累跌27.0个基点。

法国10年期国债收益率跌2.6个基点，本周累跌14.8个基点。意大利10年期国债收益率跌1.4个基点，本周累跌13.3个基点。西班牙10年期国债收益率跌3.0个基点，本周累跌17.2个基点。希腊10年期国债收益率跌0.6个基点，本周累跌13.4个基点。两年期英债收益率跌11.8个基点，本周累跌31.5个基点。英国10年期国债收益率下跌5.4个基点，本周累计下跌27.2个基点。

美国经济硬着陆风险上升，投资者看衰油需前景，美油下跌逾3%至两个月低点

WTI 9月原油期货收跌2.79美元，跌幅接近3.66%，报73.52美元/桶。本周累计下跌4.72%。布伦特10月原油期货收跌2.71美元，跌幅接近3.41%，报76.81美元/桶。本周累计下跌5.32%，布油一度创半年盘中最低。

美油和布油在欧股早盘最高涨近1.3%和1.2%，分别升破77美元和80美元整数位，后两者均大幅下行转跌，在北京时间凌晨2:00左右刷新日低，美油和布油分别跌近4.4%和3.9%，击穿73美元和下逼76美元。

由于经济衰退恐慌，油需疲软顾虑加剧盖过了中东地缘政治风险溢价，原油价格跌至两个月低点

分析称，尽管中东紧张局势加剧，但美油本周仍跌超4.7%，因为主要经济体经济增长疲软可能会抑制石油需求，盖过了中东紧张局势引发的供应担忧。全球最大石油进口国，以及多数亚洲和欧美国家制造业数据均减弱，加大了全球经济放缓的风险，石油消费承压。亚洲7月份原油进口量跌至两年来最低水平。同时周四举行的OPEC+会议维持石油产量政策不变，并计划从10月开始逐步取消减产措施。

美国9月天然气期货收跌0.05%，报1.9670美元/百万英热单位。本周累计下跌1.94%。投资者关注供应风险，带动欧洲天然气期货本周累涨超14%创4月份以来最大单周涨幅。欧洲基准的TTF荷兰天然气期货涨0.27%，报37.000欧元/兆瓦时，本周累涨14.02%。ICE英国天然气期货涨0.81%，报90.900便士/千卡，本周累计上涨13.23%。

“非农日”美元跌超1%，离岸人民币盘中涨超千点至半年新高，比特币下挫，日元本周涨超4.7%逼近146

衡量兑六种主要货币的一篮子美元指数DXY跌1.15%，报103.221点，逼近3月14日底部102.736点，本周累计下跌1.05%，期间交投区间为104.799-103.125点，美国非农就业报告发布后打破本周稍早的窄幅波动状态。

彭博美元指数跌0.69%，报1249.24点，本周累跌0.62%，期间交投区间为1263.55-1247.50点。

非美货币多数上涨。欧元兑美元涨1.11%，报1.0911，本周累涨0.50%；英镑兑美元涨0.52%，报1.2805，本周累跌0.48%；美元兑瑞郎跌1.81%，报0.8577，本周累跌2.93%，周二至周五平滑下跌，非农就业报告发布后跌势加剧。

离岸人民币（CNH）兑美元尾盘涨873点，报7.1638元，盘中最高涨超1000点触及7.1437元，日内涨幅约1.4%，创1月份以来新高。

亚洲货币中，美元兑日元跌1.89%，报146.53日元，本周累跌4.75%，期间交投区间为155.22-146.42日元，周一持稳、周二开始整体呈现出平滑的下行趋势。欧元兑日元跌0.81%，报159.89日元，本周累跌4.21%；英镑兑日元跌1.47%，报187.646日元，本周累跌5.09%。

中东地缘政治冲突升级，以色列资产重挫，以色列谢克尔连续第五天下跌，创2023年10月以来最长跌势。

主流加密货币多数下跌。市值最大的龙头比特币尾盘跌幅扩大至超5%并失守6.2万美元，美国非农就业报告后曾升至逼近66000美元，本周累计下跌8.48%，周初曾升破7万美元。

第二大的以太坊也尾盘跌幅扩大，跌超6%并跌穿3000美元，美国非农就业报告后曾升至3200美元，本周也累跌8%且周初曾升破3400美元。

据coinglass数据，过去24小时内，加密货币市场爆仓总人数近9万人，爆仓金额达2.55亿美元。

美元走软提振黄金冲高涨逾1%，后因获利回吐转跌，但在中东紧张局势及降息预期支撑下，本周仍涨超2.3%

非农不佳，降息预期升温压低美元和美债收益率，黄金盘中冲高，但尾盘回落转跌。COMEX 12月黄金期货尾盘涨0.21%至2486.10美元/盎司，本周累涨2.11%，COMEX 9月白银期货尾盘涨0.07%，本周累涨2.23%。现货白银收涨0.13%至28.5597美元，本周累涨2.12%。

现货黄金和现货白银在美股开盘前一度上涨，北京时间晚8:30美国非农就业数据公布后，现货黄金刷新日高时涨近1.3%上逼2480美元，接近7月17日创下的2483.60美元历史最高，现货白银最高涨近2.5%升破29美元整数位。然而，美股早盘金银价格双双跳水，现货黄金最低跌超1.4%下逼2410美元，较日高回落超66美元，具有工业金属属性的现货白银最深跌逾2%击穿28美元整数位。

伦敦工业基本金属多数收跌。经济风向标“铜博士”收涨3美元，报9056美元/吨，本周累计下跌超过0.60%。伦铝跌超1.39%，报2264美元/吨。伦锌跌超1.99%，报2653美元/吨。伦铅跌1.89%，报2023美元/吨，本周累跌超2.17%。伦镍收跌9美元，报16273美元/吨，本周累涨超3.03%。伦锡收涨294美元，涨超0.98%，报30188美元/吨，本周累涨超2.08%。

编辑/Jeffy

Source: Wall Street See
Authors: Fang Jiayao, Du Yu. S&P 500 index rose on the fifth day of the six days, Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 continued to reach new highs for six consecutive days, Dow Jones stopped falling for four consecutive days and pulled away from nearly two weeks low, Russell small-cap stock index stopped falling for two consecutive days and pulled away from a six-week low.

In July, the non-farm payrolls added in the USA fell far short of expectations and the previous value, with the unemployment rate reaching its highest level in three years. Concerns about a recession in the USA have significantly increased the betting on interest rate cuts this year to more than 100 basis points.

During the day, the Dow Jones plunged by about 990 points. Both the S&P 500 Index, which had its deepest daily decline in nearly two years, and the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 fell more than 10% from their historic highs, each falling more than 3% for the week. Chip stocks fell more than 5%, and were down nearly 10% for the week. The 'panic index' VIX hit its highest level since March of last year. Intel plummeted 26%, while Amazon fell nearly 13%. Apple rose against the trend.

On Friday, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield fell a whopping 19 basis points to a seven-month low, and the US dollar index fell more than 1% to a four-month low. The yen rose a maximum of 2%, breaking through 147, and the renminbi reached a new high for the year. Demand concerns have caused oil prices to fall more than 3%, down about 5% for the week. Brent crude oil fell to an intraday low not seen in six months. Gold went up and then fell back, but was up more than 2% for the week. Bitcoin fell 9 % for the week.

The US's non-farm payrolls report for July was weak, and the risk of a hard landing for the US economy has increased, triggering a massive wave of risk aversion. The number of non-farm payroll jobs in the US in July fell sharply from the previous month's 1.79 million to 1.14 million, significantly lower than the expected 1.75 million. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent, the highest level in three years, and triggered the Sam rule, which has an accuracy rate of 100% as a recession indicator.

After the data was released, US stock futures widened their losses, US bond yields plunged, and the US two-year Treasury note yield fell as much as 26 basis points to the lowest level since May 12, 2023. All maturity US bond yields fell by at least 12 basis points. Eurozone and UK government bond yields followed suit in falling. The US dollar index fell by 1%, while the yen rose 2% to break through 147. The offshore renminbi rose more than 1000 points, reaching a new high since January, while spot gold rose nearly 1.3% for the day.

The market now expects the Fed to cut interest rates by a total of 100 basis points across the remaining three meetings of the year at a rate of 25 basis points per meeting, suggesting that one of those meetings may involve a 50 basis point cut. This assessment extended the rise in US bond prices to a seventh day. The market is beginning to believe that the Fed's rate cuts are too late.

The call for interest rate cuts in the US has been growing. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren said Fed Chairman Powell made a “serious mistake” by not cutting interest rates: Powell needs to cut them now, not wait another six weeks. Wall Street's major banks have also adjusted their expectations for interest rate cuts. Citigroup expects the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points in September and November, and by 25 basis points at its December meeting. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut rates three times this year, or a total of 75 basis points, up from its previous expectation of a 50 basis point cut. JPMorgan expects the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points in September and November.

However, some economists have a different view. They believe that reducing interest rates by 50 basis points could cause panic, and that market expectations for significant interest rate cuts are too far ahead. American employment data is not yet severe enough to require emergency action by the Fed.

Two Fed board members warned that people should not overreact to monthly data, and that more data will be available before the September meeting. Richmond Fed President Barkin admitted that a significant interest rate cut is usually triggered when the US economy slows down rapidly.

The weak economy has prompted a massive bet on even bigger (and earlier) interest rate cuts. It is currently expected that there will be a total of 116 basis points in rate cuts by 2024, and a further 100 basis points in 2025.

Recession fears have intensified, and the Nasdaq has fallen 2.43% into the correction zone. Intel plunged 26%, and the VIX panic index rose more than 59%.

On Friday, August 2, a US recession warning triggered market panic selling, and major US indexes opened sharply lower and fell heavily during the day.

In early trading, following the release of a surprisingly weak non-farm payroll report, major stock indexes hit daily lows, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq falling almost 3.6% at the end of the day. The S&P 500 Index fell by nearly 2.7% to its lowest level, while the Dow Jones, which is closely related to the economic cycle, fell to a low of nearly 2.5%, or 989 points. The Russell small-cap index fell by nearly 4.4% to a new low.

As of the close:

The S&P 500 Index closed down 100.12 points, or 1.84%, at 5,346.56, close to the June 4 close of 5,291.34, down 2.06% for the week, after falling 1.97% and 0.83% respectively the previous two weeks. The Dow Jones closed down 610.71 points, or 1.51%, at 39,737.26, down 2.10% for the week, ending the previous four weeks of consecutive gains. The Nasdaq closed down 417.98 points, or 2.43%, at 16,776.16, down 3.35% for the week, continuing the previous two weeks of 3.65% and 2.08% falls respectively.

Nasdaq 100 fell 2.38%. The Nasdaq Tech Market-Cap-Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 technology components, fell 2.60%. The Russell 2000 index closed down 3.52%, and the VIX index rose by 26.04% to 23.43, rising to 29.66 as of 23:27 Beijing time, approaching the psychological barrier of 30 and the top of March 13, 2023.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 5.18%, and the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange fell 4.32%, marking the largest single-day decline since May 2023. The Dow Jones KBW Regional Bank Index fell 3.34%.

The VIX index rose to its highest level since October 2022 at 29.66 on Friday, and the VVIX index crossed the key panic level of 100 this week, rising to 162.68 on Friday, the highest level since March 2022.

Of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 index, the consumer discretionary sector fell 4.61% on non-farm payrolls day, while the financial, energy, and industrial sectors fell by up to 2.42%, the information technology/tech sector fell 1.99%, the telecommunications sector fell 1.92%, and the basic materials sector fell 1.89%. However, the real estate sector rose 0.09%, the utility sector rose 0.14%, and the consumer goods sector rose 0.86%.

This week, the consumer discretionary sector fell 4.28%, the technology sector fell 4.03%, the energy sector fell 3.74%, the financial sector fell 3.02%, the industrial sector fell 2.79%, the basic materials sector fell 1.39%, the healthcare sector rose 0.65%, the consumer goods sector rose 1.16%, the telecommunications sector rose 1.26%, the real estate sector rose 3.10%, and the utility sector rose 4.29%.

Regarding investment research strategies:

Michael Hartnett, a strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said investors should sell stocks when the Fed cuts rates because there is a greater risk of a more severe recession in the US.
According to data from Goldman Sachs as of August 2, hedge funds continued to reduce their global stock holdings for the third consecutive week, with more selling of North American stocks than buying of other regions. Asia's emerging markets were the most significant net buyers. China stocks saw a net purchase for the first time in three weeks, with the largest net purchase in two months.

All of the 'Magnificent Seven' tech giants except Apple have fallen, with Amazon, Tesla, and Google A falling for four consecutive weeks. Apple closed up 0.69%, up 0.87% this week, after falling 2.7% and 2.83% in the previous two weeks, recording the first decline in six consecutive quarters of revenue and profit exceeding expectations and the only company in Greater China to fall; NVIDIA fell 1.78%, down 5.12% this week, after falling 8.75% and 4.13% in the previous two weeks, facing a US Department of Justice antitrust investigation amidst complaints from competitors; Tesla fell 4.24%, down 5.52% this week, after falling 1.31%, 3.64%, and 8.11% in the previous three weeks.

Amazon fell 8.78%, down 8% this week, after falling 2.75%, 5.84%, and 0.34% in the previous three weeks. The Q3 guidance was inferior, and cloud demand flashed red under the pressure of AI investment, with Cowen lowering its target price for Amazon from $245 to $230. 'Metaverse' Meta fell 1.93%, up 4.82% this week after falling 7.6%, 4.43%, and 2.33% in the previous three weeks; Microsoft fell 2.07%, down 3.95% this week, after falling 3%, 3.62%, and 2.71% in the previous three weeks; Google A fell 2.4%, down 0.2% this week, after falling 2.9%, 4%, and 6% in the previous three weeks.

Hedge fund Elliott reportedly told investors that large tech stocks, especially NVIDIA, are a bubble. It is doubtful whether large technology companies will continue to buy NVIDIA's graphics processing units GPU in large quantities, and artificial intelligence 'has been overhyped, and many applications are not ready for the golden age.'

The stock market value of the Magnificent Seven tech giants has fallen by about $2.3 trillion from its all-time high.

Chip stocks almost entirely collapsed. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 5.18% and fell 9.7% throughout the week; the SOXX industry ETF fell 5.32%; and the twice-long ETF of NVIDIA fell 4.14%.

TSMC fell 5.26% in US stocks, ARM Holdings fell 6.63%, Qualcomm fell 2.86%, Broadcom fell 2.18%, AMD fell 0.03%, KLA Corp fell 7.93%, ON Semiconductor fell 5.49%, Micron Technology fell 8.68%, plummeted 9.8% during the day to achieve the worst intraday performance in recent four years. Applied Materials fell 7.38%, ASML Holding ADR fell 8.41%.

It is noteworthy that Intel disappointed the market with its performance, and it fell more than 26%, the largest decline since at least 1982, the worst performance among the 30 component stocks of the Philadelphia Semiconductor. HSBC downgraded Intel's rating to reduce, with a target price of $19.80. Raymond James and Benchmark downgraded Intel's rating from buy to hold. Standard & Poor's put Intel on credit negative watchlist.

AI concept stocks fell collectively. Serve Robotics, an AI robot distribution company held by NVIDIA, fell 15.24%, Dell Technologies fell more than 5.6%, C3.ai fell about 5.4%, AI voice company SoundHound AI fell 0.86%, BigBear.ai fell 4.29%, Snowflake fell 3.57%, Supermicro Computer fell 7.08%, CrowdStrike fell 2.82%, Palantir fell 5.14%, Oracle fell 3.08%, while BullFrog AI rose 5.54%.

Most China concept stocks fell. Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 1.84% and accumulated a 5.9% decline for the whole week. Among ETFs, KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) fell 1.16% and the KraneShares China Technology ETF (CQQQ) fell 0.8%.

In the hot Chinese concept stocks, "education concept stocks" Tal Education fell 6.72%, New Oriental fell 2.93%. Among the "new carmakers," NIO fell 0.25%, Xpeng fell 0.92%, Li Auto fell 0.88%, and Jidu Auto fell 0.52%; JD.com fell 0.32%, Pinduoduo fell 0.32%, Tencent Holdings (ADR) fell 0.82%, Baidu fell 2.23%, Alibaba fell 0.68%, NetEase fell 1.24%, and Bilibili rose 1.77%.

The stocks most affected by the economic recession also fell, and Bank of America stocks generally fell. JPMorgan Chase fell 4.24%, Wells Fargo & Co. fell 6.36%, and Citigroup fell 7.14%. Morgan Stanley fell 5.81%.

It is worth noting that Morgan Stanley was downgraded to bearish by analysts for the first time in 2024. Analyst Mike Mayo of Wells Fargo & Co downgraded Morgan Stanley's rating to underweight (previously flat), saying that some business pressures result in its valuation (within the industry) being too high. The analyst believes that Morgan Stanley's wealth management department is facing many headwinds.

Other individual stocks with significant changes due to earnings reports are:

Chevron fell 2.7%, and Q2 net profit fell 26% year-on-year, which did not meet expectations. RBC lowered its target stock price of Chevron from $190 to $180.
ExxonMobil opened high and fell, and the closing approached to recover the 1.3% decline. Q2 profit exceeded expectations, and it is expected to buy back more than $19 billion of stocks this year. After the acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources in early May this year, the company's oil and gas production reached a record high. ExxonMobil's CEO said that he saw "very strong" oil demand. The global oil supply is maintaining a healthy crude oil price.
"Retail investors' stocks" AMC Entertainment fell 3.52%, and the company's second-quarter revenue met expectations, with an adjusted loss of $0.43 per share, which was better than expected. It rose 3.21% in post-market trading.
Coinbase fell 3.86%. The company's Q2 revenue increased by 105% year-on-year, a decrease of 11% month-on-month. Q2 net profit was $36 million, a decrease of 97% month-on-month. The net loss of $97 million in the same period last year. Jefferies raised the target price of Coinbase from $215 to $245 and maintained a "hold" rating. Bank of America Securities lowered the price target of Coinbase from $263 to $246.
Social media stock Snap fell 26.93%, and the company's second-quarter revenue and third-quarter performance outlook were below market expectations. HSBC downgraded Snap's rating to hold, with a target price of $11. TD Cowen lowered Snap's target price from $14 to $11.
Argentine e-commerce company Mercadolibre (MELI) rose 10.59%, reporting $1776.14, the closing market value exceeded $90 billion, surpassing Petroleo Brasileiro of Brazil and becoming the most valuable company in Latin America.
Shares related to digital currencies/blockchain fell in general. Bit Digital fell 12.87%, Robinhood, Bitdeer, and Bitfarms brokerage companies fell up to 11.66%, Riot Platforms fell over 8%, MSTR, known as the holder of a large amount of Bitcoin, fell over 4.2%, QETH, an ETF that tracks Ether, fell by 3.89%, Coinbase, a digital currency exchange, fell 3.86%, and the Bitcoin double short ETF rose 2.47%. Ideanomics, represented by IDEX, increased by 26.95%.
Gold and silver mining stocks fell in general. Avino Silver fell 8.82%, Coeur Mining fell 8.33%, Hecla Mining fell 7.32%, Pan American Silver fell over 5%, Harmony Gold Mining fell approximately 3.9%, Gold Fields fell approximately 3.2%, and the gold mining stock ETF GDX fell over 2.1%.

Poor US non-farm employment data sparked a recession panic. Investors' bets on rate cuts by the Fed, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England this year have all significantly increased. European stocks have fallen for two consecutive days and the technology sector fell more than 6% on Friday. The pan-European stock index and the German-Italian national stock index both fell over 2%, and the Italian banking index has fallen more than 8.6% this week.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell 2.73% to 497.85 points. It rose to 524.71 points on May 15th, the highest closing price in history, but has since fallen nearly 5.12%. It has fallen 3.92% in the past two trading days alone and recently fell below the 50-day moving average and the 100-day moving average. It has fallen 2.92% this week.
The Eurozone's STOXX 50 index fell 2.67% to 4,638.7 points, below its 200-day moving average (which is currently at 4,742.48 points), approaching its closing level of 4,638.6 points on February 1 and 4,403.08 points on January 17. It has fallen 4.60% this week.
In terms of sectors this week, the STOXX 600 banking index fell 7.78% and the technology index fell 6.27%, while the real estate index rose 2.70%.
The German DAX 30 index fell 2.33%, falling more than 6.40% from the historical high of 18,869.36 points on May 15th, and has fallen 4.11% this week. The French CAC 40 index fell 1.61%, with a cumulative drop of more than 11.99% since it reached a closing high of 8,239.99 points on May 15th. It has fallen 3.54% this week.
The FTSE MIB index in Italy fell 2.55%, falling 5.30% this week, while the UK FTSE 100 index fell 1.31%, falling 1.34% this week. The Netherlands AEX index fell 3.11%, falling 3.06% this week, and the Spanish IBEX 35 index fell 1.67%, falling 4.42% this week.

Among stocks with significant volatility:

The European technology sector fell sharply, with ASM International falling 12.63%, ASML Holding falling 11.18%, and BE Semiconductor Industries falling 9.34%, tumbling more than 25% from their historical highs.

On 'non-farm payroll day', the two-year US Treasury yield plummeted more than 26 basis points. US bonds have risen for seven consecutive days and are the preferred hedge for the 'hard landing' in the US economy.

At the close, the two-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, fell 26.64 basis points to 3.8798%, and fell 26 basis points after the non-farm payroll data was released, down from 4.1% to 3.8408%, the lowest level since May 12, 2023. It has fallen 50.35 basis points this week.

The yield on the 10-year benchmark US Treasury bond fell 18.56 basis points to 3.7904%, falling below the 3.93% level when the US non-farm payroll report was released at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday, and hit a low of 3.7847% at 03:51 (near the close of US stocks), approaching the bottom of 3.7815% on December 27, 2023. It has been falling all day and has fallen 40.35 basis points this week.

Analysis shows that US bond yields have fallen sharply across the board this week, with two-year Treasury yields falling nearly 30 basis points on Friday alone. This week, they fell sharply by 50 basis points. Friday was the biggest drop in two-year yields since December 2023 (when Powell changed his stance) and the biggest weekly decline since March 2023 (when SVB crashed).

The US bond yield curve has reversed and the yield spread between the two-year and 30-year Treasury bonds is currently at its steepest level since July 2022.

Eurozone bonds and UK bonds follow US bonds higher. The yield on the benchmark 10-year German bond fell by 7.0 basis points to 2.174%, falling a total of 23.4 basis points this week. The two-year German bond yield fell 10.2 basis points to 2.352%, falling a total of 27.0 basis points this week.

France's 10-year Treasury yield fell by 2.6 basis points, cumulatively falling by 14.8 basis points this week. Italy's 10-year Treasury yield fell by 1.4 basis points, cumulatively falling by 13.3 basis points this week. Spain's 10-year Treasury yield fell by 3.0 basis points, cumulatively falling by 17.2 basis points this week. Greece's 10-year Treasury yield fell by 0.6 basis points, cumulatively falling by 13.4 basis points this week. The 2-year British bond yield fell by 11.8 basis points, cumulatively falling by 31.5 basis points this week. The 10-year British Treasury yield fell by 5.4 basis points, cumulatively falling by 27.2 basis points this week.

Rising risk of a hard landing in the US economy and investor pessimism about the outlook for oil demand has led to a drop of over 3% in US oil prices to a two-month low.

WTI September crude oil futures closed down $2.79, or nearly 3.66%, at $73.52 a barrel, with a cumulative decline of 4.72% this week. Brent October crude futures closed down $2.71, or nearly 3.41%, at $76.81 a barrel, with a cumulative decline of 5.32% this week. Brent crude hit the lowest intraday level in half a year at one point.

US and Brent crude oil saw a rise of nearly 1.3% and 1.2% at the highest point in early European stock trading, respectively breaking through the $77 and $80 integer marks, but both fell sharply later, hitting a daily low at around 2:00 am Beijing time. US crude and Brent crude fell by nearly 4.4% and 3.9%, respectively, breaking through $73 and nearly touching $76.

Due to recession panic and concerns about weakened oil demand, the crude oil prices fell to a two-month low, outweighing geopolitical risk premiums in the Middle East.

Although tension has increased in the Middle East, US oil still fell more than 4.7% this week, due to the possibility that weak economic growth in major economies may curb oil demand, outweighing supply concerns caused by the tension in the Middle East. The world's largest oil importing country, as well as the weakening of manufacturing data in most Asian and European countries, has increased the risk of a global economic slowdown, putting pressure on oil consumption. In July, Asia's crude oil imports fell to their lowest level in two years. Meanwhile, the OPEC + meeting held on Thursday maintained the oil production policy and plans to gradually lift production cuts from October.

US natural gas futures for September closed down 0.05% at $1.9670 per million British thermal units, with a cumulative decline of 1.94% this week. Investors are concerned about supply risks, driving up European natural gas futures by over 14% this week, marking the largest weekly gain since April. The European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures rose 0.27% to 37.000 euros per megawatt hour, with a cumulative gain of 14.02% this week. ICE UK natural gas futures rose 0.81% to 90.900 pence per thousand cubic feet, with a cumulative increase of 13.23% this week.

The US dollar fell more than 1% on 'non-farm day,' while offshore yuan rose more than 1,000 points to a six-month high and bitcoin fell. The yen rose more than 4.7% this week to nearly 146.

The basket of currencies that measure against the US dollar, the DXY, fell by 1.15% to 103.221 points, approaching the March 14 bottom of 102.736 points. It fell by 1.05% cumulatively this week, with a trading range of 104.799-103.125 points during the period. The release of the US non-farm employment report broke its narrow range of fluctuations earlier this week.

The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell 0.69% to 1249.24 points this week, with a cumulative decline of 0.62%. The trading range during the period was 1263.55-1247.50 points.

The US dollar fell modestly this week to a low not seen since July.

Most non-US currencies rose. The euro rose 1.11% against the US dollar to 1.0911, up 0.50% cumulatively this week. The British pound rose 0.52% against the US dollar to 1.2805, down 0.48% cumulatively this week. The dollar against the Swiss franc fell 1.81% to 0.8577, down 2.93% cumulatively this week, with a smooth decline from Tuesday to Friday followed by a sharp drop after the non-farm employment report was released.

Offshore yuan (CNH) rose 873 points at the end of the day to 7.1638 yuan against the US dollar, hitting a new high since January with a maximum intraday gain of over 1,000 points, up about 1.4% during the day.

Among Asian currencies, the dollar against the yen fell by 1.89% to 146.53 yen, down 4.75% cumulatively this week, with a trading range of 155.22-146.42 yen during the period. It remained stable on Monday and then showed a smooth downward trend since Tuesday. The euro against the yen fell 0.81% to 159.89 yen, down 4.21% cumulatively this week, while the pound against the yen fell 1.47% to 187.646 yen, down 5.09% cumulatively this week.

The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has caused Israeli assets to slump, with the Israeli shekel falling for the fifth consecutive day, marking the longest decline since October 2023.

The yen against the US dollar exchange rate surged to the highest closing price since January (arbitrage lifted).

Most mainstream cryptocurrencies fell. Bitcoin, the largest market cap leader, fell by more than 5% and lost the $62,000 mark, down 8.48% cumulatively this week, hitting the $70,000 mark earlier in the week.

The second largest ethereum also extended losses at the end of the day, falling more than 6% and dropping below $3,000. After the US non-farm payroll report, it had risen to $3,200 and also fell 8% this week, with an initial rise above $3,400.

According to coinglass data, the number of people who were liquidated in the cryptocurrency market in the past 24 hours was nearly 0.09 million, with a total amount of liquidation of $0.255 billion.

Bitcoin has maintained a slump this week, falling from $0.07 million to $0.062 million.

The weakness of the US dollar pushed gold up more than 1%, but it turned down due to profit taking. However, supported by the tension in the Middle East and the expectations of interest rate cuts, it still rose more than 2.3% this week.

The non-farm payroll report was not good, and the expectation of interest rate cut pressure lowered the US dollar and the yield of US treasury bonds. Gold rose during the day, but fell back in the end. The COMEX December gold futures rose 0.21% to $2486.10 per ounce at the end of the day, up 2.11% this week. The COMEX September silver futures rose 0.07% at the end of the day, up 2.23% this week. Spot silver closed up 0.13% at $28.5597, up 2.12% this week.

Spot gold and spot silver rose before the US stock market opened, and after the US non-farm payroll data was released at 8:30 pm Beijing time, spot gold reached a daily high, rising nearly 1.3% to approach $2480, close to the historical high of $2483.60 set on July 17, and spot silver rose nearly 2.5% to break through the $29 integer mark. However, gold and silver prices tumbled sharply early in the US stock market, with spot gold falling more than 1.4% to below $2410, a drop of more than $66 from the daily high. Spot silver, which has industrial metal properties, fell the deepest by more than 2%, breaking through the $28 integer mark.

Gold prices once again tested historical highs on Friday but then fell sharply, but closed higher this week.

Most London industrial basic metals fell. The economic indicator 'Copper Doctor' rose $3 to report $9056/tonne, down more than 0.60% this week. London aluminium fell more than 1.39% to $2264 per tonne. London zinc fell more than 1.99% to $2653 per tonne. London lead fell 1.89% to $2023 per tonne, down more than 2.17% this week. London nickel fell 9 dollars to $16,273 per tonne, up more than 3.03% this week. London tin rose 294 dollars and rose more than 0.98%, reporting $30,188/tonne, up more than 2.08% this week.

Editor/Jeffy

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