It's been a good week for Materialise NV (NASDAQ:MTLS) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 4.3% to US$6.13. Revenues were €69m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at €0.07, an impressive 75% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

After the latest results, the three analysts covering Materialise are now predicting revenues of €269.8m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a credible 4.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 35% to €0.25. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €269.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.19 in 2024. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the considerable lift to earnings per share expectations following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$10.38, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Materialise analyst has a price target of US$12.01 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$9.51. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Materialise is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 9.5% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 8.1% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 12% per year. So it's pretty clear that Materialise is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Materialise's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$10.38, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Materialise analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Materialise you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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