投资建议：南 京银行新管理层到位后，积极推动变革、提质增效，在优化资负结构和夯实客群基础方面都取得有效进展。根据上半年经营情况，预测2024-2026 年净利润增速为14.0%、10.2%、10.7%，对应EPS 为1.93(-0.02)、2.14(-0.16)、2.38(新增)元/股，BVPS 为15.06(+0.25)、16.58(+0.10)、18.29(新增)元/股。公司现价对应2024年股息率为5.95%，兼具成长性和稳健红利稀缺性，上调目标价至11.85 元，对应2024 年0.79 倍PB，维持增持评级。Introduction to this report:
The Bank of Nanjing's 2024 mid-year report revenue and profit growth rate exceeded expectations, and asset quality was in line with expectations. Based on the company's growth and the scarcity of steady dividends, the target price was raised to 11.85 yuan to maintain an increase in holdings rating.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: After the new management of the Bank of Nanjing was put in place, it actively promoted changes, improved quality and efficiency, and made effective progress in optimizing the financial structure and consolidating the customer base. Based on the business situation in the first half of the year, the net profit growth rate for 2024-2026 is predicted to be 14.0%, 10.2%, and 10.7%, corresponding to EPS of 1.93 (-0.02), 2.14 (-0.16), 2.38 (new) yuan/share, and BVPS of 15.06 (+0.25), 16.58 (+0.10), and 18.29 (new) yuan/share. The company's current price corresponds to a dividend rate of 5.95% in 2024, which combines growth and the scarcity of steady dividends. The target price was raised to 11.85 yuan, corresponding to 0.79 times PB in 2024, maintaining an increase in holdings rating.
The 24Q2 scale growth rate remained at a high level of 11.7%. The deposit and loan business gradually slowed down, and financial investments and interbank deposits were increased on both sides. On the asset side, Bank of Nanjing loans increased 13.5% year on year in 24Q2, down 1.2 pct from Q1; financial investment increased 13.1% year over year, and the growth rate increased 3.4 pct compared to Q1. In the first half of the year, corporate financing contributed 96% of the increase in loans, of which about 60% were invested in the broader infrastructure industry; retail mortgages and credit cards were increasing in small amounts, and consumer loans from the parent bank decreased by nearly 8.8 billion yuan, but Bank of Southern France and Pakistan consumer loans increased by about 12.5 billion yuan. On the debt side, deposit growth was pressured by both internal and external influences due to the active optimization structure and the slowdown in M2 growth. The balance of interbank deposits at the end of the period increased by 95% to 270 billion compared to the beginning of the year.
Interest spreads in 24Q2 are still in a downward channel, and net other non-interest rate increases year-on-year significantly boosted revenue. Affected by both pricing and structure, 24Q2 interest spreads narrowed further, but the year-on-year decline slowed, reducing the decline in net interest income. Net revenue from handling fees decreased slightly by 1.8% year on year, and net other non-interest income benefited from increased scale and the bull market in bonds, which increased 45.7% year over year, contributing 43% of revenue. Under strong revenue, despite strengthening bad disposal and impairment accrual efforts in 24Q2, credit losses increased 56% year-on-year, and net profit to mother achieved double-digit growth.
The overall quality of assets is stable, improving to the public sector but putting pressure on retail sales. At the end of 24Q2, the Bank of Nanjing's non-performing rate was the same as Q1 at 0.83%, and the attention rate increased by 3 bps to 1.07%, in line with expectations. At the end of the period, the non-performing ratio for public and retail sales was -12 bps and +14 bps to 0.58% and 1.64%, respectively. Retail credit risk was still exposed, driving a phased rebound in the bad generation rate. However, banks have taken the initiative to step up bad disposal efforts. The scale of 24H1 bad write-offs and transfers is close to the whole of 2023. Subsequently, as economic expectations and confidence pick up, banks are fully able to withstand risks.
Risk Warning: Retail credit risk exposure exceeds expectations; demand for credit continues to weaken.
