上半年，我国纺织服装行业克服全球外汇市场波动、国际航运不畅等影响，出口成绩好于预期，供应链加速转型升级，对海外市场变化适应能力不断增强。我国纺织服装累计出口1432.4亿美元，同比增长1.6%。其中，对美国出口增长5.1%，对东盟出口增长9.5%。From January to June, the trade volume of textiles and clothing was $153.57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, of which the export was $143.24 billion, an increase of 1.6%, and the import was $10.33 billion, an increase of 3.8%, with a cumulative trade surplus of $132.91 billion, an increase of 1.4%.
Futu Securities learned today that on August 1, the China National Textile and Apparel Council issued a statement stating that looking forward to the third quarter and the future, China's textile and garment exports are still facing uncertain factors such as the instability of external demand growth and the escalation of geopolitical risks, and the complex and severe external situation still brings great uncertainty and risks and challenges to China's textile industry foreign trade. However, with the implementation of a series of macro-control policies by the country, the foreign trade of China's textile industry is expected to continue to maintain a stable recovery trend in the second half of the year, and it is preliminarily estimated that exports in the third quarter will still maintain growth on a low base.
In the second quarter, with the recovery of the domestic economy and the continuous effectiveness of China's stable foreign trade policy, the replenishment cycles of key markets continued, and the export vitality of China's textile and clothing continued to be released. From April to June, the export of textile and clothing increased month by month, maintaining a steady and positive momentum overall. In June, the monthly export volume exceeded $27 billion, continuing to increase for the fourth month in a row.
In the first half of the year, China's textile and clothing industry overcame the impact of global foreign exchange market volatility and international shipping disruptions, and its export performance was better than expected. The supply chain accelerated its transformation and upgrading, and its adaptability to changes in overseas markets continued to increase. China's textile and clothing exports totaled $143.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. Among them, exports to the United States increased by 5.1%, and those to ASEAN increased by 9.5%.
From January to June 2024, the total value of goods trade import and export in the country was $298.098 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3%. Among them, exports were $170.862 billion, an increase of 3.7%, imports were $127.236 billion, an increase of 2%, and the cumulative trade surplus was $43.624 billion. In June, the total value of goods trade import and export in the country was $51.666 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, of which the export was $30.785 billion, an increase of 8.6%, the import was $20.881 billion, a decrease of 2.3%, and the trade surplus was $9.904 billion.
From January to June, the trade volume of textiles and clothing was $153.57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, of which the export was $143.24 billion, an increase of 1.6%, and the import was $10.33 billion, an increase of 3.8%, with a cumulative trade surplus of $132.91 billion, an increase of 1.4%. In June, the trade volume of textiles and clothing was $29.05 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2%, of which the export was $27.4 billion, an increase of 2.5%, and the import was $1.65 billion, a decrease of 6.5%, with a trade surplus of $25.75 billion, an increase of 3.2%.
From January to June 2024, the trade of textiles and clothing has the following characteristics:
1. In the first half of the year, textile and clothing exports increased by 1.7% year-on-year, and export volumes increased month by month in the second quarter.
From January to June, China's textile and clothing exports totaled $143.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, of which textile exports increased by 3.3% year-on-year and clothing exports remained stable. In the second quarter, the overall industry maintained a steady and positive momentum with increasing exports month by month. Among them, the export volume in May exceeded $26 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. The export volume in June was $27.4 billion, which continued to increase for the fourth consecutive month on a month-on-month basis, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%.
2. In the first half of the year, exports to the United States and ASEAN increased, while exports to the European Union and Japan decreased. From January to June, my cumulative exports to the United States of textiles and clothing increased by 5.1% year-on-year, while cumulative exports to ASEAN increased by 9.5% year-on-year. Exports to the European Union decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, and exports to Japan decreased by 7.6% year-on-year. The four major markets, the United States, ASEAN, the European Union, and Japan, account for 16%, 18.9%, 12.9%, and 5.2% of my exports, respectively, and the sum of the four accounts for 53%. The export volume to 152 countries that are jointly building the Belt and Road was $79.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, accounting for 55.3% of total exports.
From January to June, my cumulative textile and clothing exports to the United States increased by 5.1% year-on-year, and exports of knitted and woven clothing increased by 16.5%. According to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the United States Department of Commerce, the quarter-over-quarter annualized rate of real GDP in the United States in the second quarter of 2024 was 2.8%, higher than the market's expected 2% and a significant increase from the previous value of 1.4%. Year-on-year, real GDP in the United States in the second quarter grew by 3.0% to 3.12%, benefiting from strong support from the consumption and investment sectors, and the replenishment of enterprises had a significant support effect on GDP growth.
From January to June, I exported $22.87 billion of textiles and clothing to the United States, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, of which knitted and woven clothing, which are the main products, had an export value of $13.85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and export quantity increased by 16.5%. In June, exports to the United States were $4.92 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. Total exports of my main products, knitted and woven clothing, to the United States were $3.12 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, and export volume increased by 20.6%. Judging from the import data of the United States, in May, the United States imported $9.46 billion of textiles and clothing from all over the world, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, of which imports from China decreased by 4.1%, imports from Vietnam decreased by 6.4%, and imports from India increased by 10.4%, Imports from Bangladesh decreased by 0.2%, and the proportion of China, Vietnam, India, and Bangladesh was 24.3%, 12.2%, 10.1%, and 6.7%, respectively.
(1) From January to June, exports to the United States increased by 5.1%, and the export volume of knitted and woven clothing increased by 16.5%. According to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the United States Department of Commerce, the quarter-over-quarter annualized rate of real GDP in the United States in the second quarter of 2024 was 2.8%, higher than the market's expected 2% and a significant increase from the previous value of 1.4%. Year-on-year, real GDP in the United States in the second quarter grew by 3.0% to 3.12%, benefiting from strong support from the consumption and investment sectors, and the replenishment of enterprises had a significant support effect on GDP growth.
From January to June, my cumulative exports of textiles and clothing to the United States were $22.87 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, of which the main product, knitted and woven clothing, had an export volume of $13.85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and an increase of 16.5% in export quantity. In June, exports to the United States were $4.92 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. My main exports to the United States, knitted and woven clothing, totaled $3.12 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, and export volumes increased by 20.6%. Data on imports from the United States showed that in May, the United States imported $9.46 billion worth of textiles and clothing from around the world, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%. Imports from China decreased by 4.1%, imports from Vietnam decreased by 6.4%, imports from India increased by 10.4%, and imports from Bangladesh decreased by 0.2%. The proportions of China, Vietnam, India, and Bangladesh were 24.3%, 12.2%, 10.1%, and 6.7%, respectively.
(2) From January to June, exports to ASEAN increased by 9.5%, and exports of intermediate products increased by 11.6%.
In the second quarter, the ASEAN economy showed a steady recovery trend, and frontier economies such as Vietnam and Thailand performed well. From January to June, my exports of textiles and apparel to ASEAN were $27.12 billion, up 9.5% year on year, and my exports to Vietnam were $9.23 billion, up 11.4% year on year. By product, from January to June, my exports of yarn and fabrics to ASEAN amounted to $13.86 billion, up 11.6% year on year, and my exports of clothing amounted to $7.91 billion, up 5.4% year on year.
In June, my exports of textiles and apparel to ASEAN were $4.66 billion, up 10.4% year on year. By country, my exports to Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand, and Laos increased by 7%, 2.2%, 32.8%, 4.2%, 17.4%, 15.4%, 18.9%, and 2.3% respectively. My exports of yarn and fabrics to ASEAN were $2.29 billion, up 13.2%, and my exports of clothing were $1.48 billion, up 5.4% year on year.
(III) From January to June, exports to the EU decreased by 0.8%, but exports in June recovered year on year.
In the second quarter, the momentum of economic growth in the eurozone showed a trend of gradual weakening. The latest composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the eurozone shows that the PMI data for June fell from 52.2 in May to 50.9, below the expected 52.5. From January to June, my exports of textiles and apparel to the EU amounted to $18.54 billion, down 0.8% year on year; among them, the export of knitting and weaving clothing, one of the main products, amounted to $10.7 billion, down 4%, but the export volume increased by 5.2%. In June, my exports of textiles and apparel to the EU amounted to $4.55 billion, up 1.1% year on year, but exports to Germany declined by 0.8%. The export of knitting and weaving clothing amounted to $3.01 billion, down 2.8%, but the export volume increased by 9%.
From the EU import data, the EU imported $9.96 billion worth of textiles and apparel in May, up 0.2% year on year. The top three import sources were China, Bangladesh, and Turkey, with imports of $2.44 billion, $1.76 billion, and $1.28 billion, respectively, accounting for 24.4%, 17.7%, and 12.9%. Compared with the same period last year, imports from China and Turkey decreased by 9% and 4.9%, respectively, while imports from Bangladesh increased by 18.7%.
(IV) From January to June, my exports to Japan decreased by 7.6% year on year, and the decline narrowed in June.
Preliminary statistics released by the Ministry of Finance of Japan on the 18th showed that after two consecutive months of trade deficits, Japan achieved a trade surplus of about JPY 224 billion in June, and the macroeconomic situation rebounded in the second quarter. From January to June, my exports of textiles and apparel to Japan were $7.43 billion, down 7.6% year on year; among them, the export of knitting and weaving clothing amounted to $4.74 billion, down 7.9% year on year. In June, my exports of textiles and apparel to Japan amounted to $1.14 billion, down 0.2% year on year, but the decline narrowed by 3 percentage points from last month and stabilized and improved. The export of knitting and weaving clothing, one of the main products, amounted to $0.7 billion, up 0.1% year on year. From the import data of Japan, Japan imported $2.29 billion worth of textiles and apparel in May, unchanged from the same period last year. China, Vietnam, and Italy were the top three import sources, with imports of $1.22 billion, $0.34 billion, and $0.1 billion, respectively. Imports from China increased by 0.4% year on year, while those from Vietnam and Italy decreased by 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively, with a combined proportion of 53%, 15%, and 4%.
(V) From January to June, my exports to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative concept increased by 1.9% year on year.
From January to June, my exports to 152 countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative totaled $79.21 billion, up 1.9% year on year, accounting for 55.3% of the total exports. Among them, exports to the five Central Asian countries of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan amounted to $8.25 billion, up 12.6% year on year. Among them, Kazakhstan's export volume increased by 53.4% year-on-year, reaching $4.32 billion, making it my sixth largest single export country. My exports to Australia were $3.3 billion, down 10.3% year on year; my exports to Russia were $2.96 billion, down 13.2% year on year; my exports to India were $2.6 billion, down 13.3% year on year; and my exports to the UAE were $2.26 billion, down 1.9% year on year. In June, my exports to the four traditional markets of the United States, ASEAN, the EU, and Japan totaled $15.27 billion, accounting for 55.7%. Non-traditional market exports accounted for 44.3%. My exports to 152 countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative were $13.96 billion, down 0.4% year on year, accounting for 50.9%.
III. The quantity of exports of the four major categories of goods increased, and the export prices declined.
From January to June, the cumulative export value of textiles was $69.38 billion, up 3.3% year on year, and the export value of clothing was $73.86 billion, unchanged year on year. Among the four major categories of goods, the export value of yarn decreased by 1.7%, and the export value of fabrics increased by 3.8%. The export value of household textiles and knitting and weaving clothing increased by 3.7% and 0.3%, respectively. In terms of export quantities, the export quantities of yarn, fabrics, household textiles, and knitting and weaving clothing increased by 2.3%, 10.3%, 19.6%, and 12.5%, respectively.
In terms of export prices, the prices of all four major categories of goods have declined, among which the price of household textiles declined the most, by 13.3%, and the prices of yarn, fabrics, and knitting and weaving clothing decreased by 3.9%, 5.8%, and 10.9%, respectively. In June, the export value of textiles and apparel maintained year-on-year growth, and the export values of yarn, fabrics, and household textiles increased by 4.6%, 5.6%, and 10.7% year on year, respectively, while the export value of knitting and weaving clothing decreased by 1.2%. The export quantities of yarn, fabrics, household textiles, and knitting and weaving clothing increased by 7%, 10.7%, 27.4%, and 14.4%, respectively. Due to a slower-than-expected economic recovery in major countries, the unit prices of the four major categories of goods continued to decline, falling by 2.2%, 4.6%, 13.2%, and 13.7%, respectively.
IV. Exports from major provinces and cities continued to grow in the first half of the year.
From January to June, the export of major provinces and cities maintained growth, with Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong and Xinjiang increasing by 3.7%, 5.4%, 1% and 28.5% respectively. Guangdong, Fujian and Shanghai increased slightly by 0.1%, 0.4% and 0.1% year on year. 16 of the 31 provinces (cities and districts, excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) achieved export growth, among which Guangxi (28%), Shaanxi (40%), Heilongjiang (31%), Tibet (106%) and Guizhou (47%) increased significantly. In June, the top seven key regions increased by 5.8%, 5%, 19.4%, 0.5% and 5.4%, respectively. Shandong and Xinjiang saw a year-on-year decline of 14.3% and 4% in exports.
In the first half of the year, the import of textile and clothing grew by 3.8%, and the import volume and price of yarn and fabric fell together in June.
From January to June, the cumulative import of textiles and garments was $10.33 billion, up 3.8% year on year. Among them, textile imports were $5.48 billion, up 2.6%, and clothing imports were $4.85 billion, up 5.2%. Among the major categories of goods, the cumulative import value of yarn increased by 7.9%, and the import volume increased by 13.7%, but the import value and volume growth rate fell, and the unit price fell by 5.1% year on year. The import value of fabrics decreased by 1.7% year on year, and the import volume decreased by 0.5%, and the unit price decreased by 1.2%. The import value of knitted and woven clothing increased by 6.2%, and the import volume decreased by 2%, but the unit price increased by 8.4%.
In June, China imported $1.66 billion worth of textiles and clothing, down 6.5% year on year. Textile imports were $0.89 billion, down 11.7%. Yarn imports decreased by 17.9% in value, 16% in volume, and 2.3% in unit price. The import value of fabrics fell by 8.5%, and the import volume fell by 7.1%, and the unit price fell by 1.5%. Clothing imports were $0.77 billion, up 0.2%. The import value of knitted and woven clothing decreased by 2%, the import volume decreased by 8.6%, and the unit price increased by 7.3%.
In Xinjiang, cotton is growing well, but there are not enough new orders for textile.
From January to June 2024, China imported about 1.794 million tons of cotton, up 2.1 times year on year. In the first ten months of 2023/24, a total of 2.887 million tons were imported, an increase of 1.5 times year on year. In June, according to information released by the China Cotton Association, the textile market continued to be weak in the off-season, with weak demand, no improvement in sales volume, insufficient confidence of enterprises in the market, and raw material procurement focusing on replenishing warehouses, with a slight downward adjustment of operation rate. The import volume of cotton in China decreased month on month, and American cotton remained the largest importer. According to customs data, China imported 0.155 million tons of cotton, a month-on-month decrease of 40.3% and a year-on-year increase of 86.9%. Among them, American cotton accounted for 50%, ranking first, and Brazil accounted for 40%, ranking second.
In June, the spot price of cotton in China fluctuated and declined, with insufficient demand, lack of support for cotton prices, and a new low of 15,772 yuan/ton on the 24th. After the international cotton price fell, it rose again. At the beginning of the month, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain interest rates, and coupled with the appreciation of the U.S. dollar index in the external market and the increase in global production in the USDA monthly report, the international cotton price fluctuated and fell. In the middle and late of the month, due to the decline of the U.S. dollar index and the good data of American cotton signing and shipping, the international cotton price rebounded slightly. The USDA report at the end of the month showed that the increase in actual planting area of American cotton exceeded expectations, and the international cotton price fell slightly, with a smaller decline than domestic cotton price, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices narrowed. The monthly average price of Chinese cotton price index (CCIndex3128B) was 16,029 yuan/ton, down 413 yuan month on month and 1,251 yuan year on year. The monthly average price of Cotlook A index was 83.2 cents/pound, down 3.3 cents month on month and 10.1% year on year, with a tariff reduction rate of 1%, the price was 14,544 yuan/ton, lower than the domestic cotton price of 1,485 yuan, and the price difference narrowed by 158 yuan from the previous period.
