Since Biden dropped out, Harris has been preparing to fight against Trump, and the two are currently evenly matched, with Harris's support rate catching up in the polls. In addition, Powell's release of a major dove signal and a significant increase in the probability of the first rate cut in September have all hit the so-called 'Trump trade'. Some traders bet that the US dollar exchange rate will rise if Trump wins, based on the view that the US dollar will benefit from pre-election bid trades, followed by potential post-election tariff plans. However, since Biden withdrew, it has been stagnant.

The original 'Trump deal' was named after his victory in the 2016 presidential election, during which the US stock market, Treasury yields, and the US dollar all soared at the same time. Now, the scope of this strategy is very wide, covering not only long US dollars and short US bonds, but also energy, medical care stocks, and so on.

Before Biden withdrew from the race, Trump seemed to have the election in his pocket and the related trades were booming. But now, these trades seem to have lost momentum: the US dollar is stagnant, US Treasury bonds are rising, and Bitcoin is falling.

The latest poll by Bloomberg/Morning Consult on battleground states released on Tuesday showed that the support rates of Harris and Trump were 48% and 47%, respectively, in the seven swing states that may decide the November election, they are statistically tied.

Specifically, Harris leads Trump in four of the seven states, and except for one state, all other states are within the margin of error of the poll. However, it is worth noting that in Michigan, Harris leads Trump by 11 percentage points, which is an amazing turnaround considering his declining support in the state before Biden withdrew.

Neeraj Seth, Chief Investment Officer of BlackRock and Head of Fundamental Fixed Income for APAC, said on Thursday: 'We have seen some 'Trump trades' being closed out. From now until November 5th, we will come and go.'

Some strategists commented that 'underestimating the volatility of the political situation has taught investors a lesson. Particularly as the Federal Reserve has put rate cuts on the agenda for the next meeting, the more likely result is that trades related to US politics will remain dormant until the end of September.'

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Some traders bet that the US dollar exchange rate will rise until Trump wins, based on the view that the US dollar will benefit from pre-election bid trades, followed by potential post-election tariff plans. However, since Biden dropped out, the exchange rate has been stagnant.$USD (USDindex.FX)$It has been stagnant since Biden dropped out.

But when Trump proposed last month that a strong US dollar is a 'huge burden' for US companies and chose Ohio Senator JD Vance, who is skeptical of a strong US dollar, as his deputy, the bet became more complicated.

In the Bloomberg MLIV Pulse survey conducted from July 22 to 26, about two-thirds of respondents said they expected Trump's second term to eventually weaken the US dollar's status as the world's reserve currency. However, 26% of people still believe that if Trump wins, the US dollar will be the best choice to avoid volatility.

Bonds

Recently, investors' attention to the world's largest bond market has focused more on monetary policy than politics. After Powell turned dovish on Wednesday, Treasuries rebounded and rose for the third consecutive month in July, the longest continuous rise in three years.

This is in contrast to the strategy of the 'Trump deal,' which assumes that Trump's return to the White House will push for tax cuts and increased debt, casting a shadow over longer-term Treasuries.

Seth of BlackRock believes that the policy path of the Federal Reserve is 'more important' than trying to guess the direction of the elections over the 12 to 18 month time frame.

'We are heading towards an easing cycle, that's clear,' he said.

Stocks

Given Trump's tough stance on immigration,GEO Group Inc. and CoreCivic Inc. are expected to benefit if Republicans win. However, the stocks of these companies have fallen since Biden withdrew.

While 60% of stocks rose this year,$Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI.US)$And.$Sturm Ruger (RGR.US)$And other firearm stocks have performed well so far.

Due to optimistic sentiment about relaxed regulation, bank stocks are considered to benefit from the Trump administration. In the market's rotational trading, bank stocks essentially held their July gains.

At the same time, the parent company of Truth Social has fallen more than 20% since July 21st. The stock has recently experienced violent fluctuations in various election-related headlines.$Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$But since Biden withdrew, cryptocurrency stocks have also fallen.

Cryptos

In recent days, more and more people have doubted whether Trump has a chance to implement his 'pro-crypto' agenda, weakening Bitcoin's momentum.

After Trump promised to make the United States the 'capital of crypto and superpower of Bitcoin on Earth,' the rise of crypto has become a representative of Trump's chances of returning to the White House.

Since Biden withdrew from the election, crypto stocks have also fallen.$Coinbase (COIN.US)$N/A.$Marathon Digital (MARA.US)$And$Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$one by one.

Arca Trading Director Kyle Doane said that some recent weakness in Bitcoin may be due to Harris 'slightly rising in polls'.

Editor/ping