Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's odds of winning the November presidential election have dropped significantly from 72% when Vice President Kamala Harris announced her candidacy, quickly plummeting to 54% on Friday, August 2. Foreign media believe that his attendance at a group discussion of the National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ) in the United States played a role, as he questioned Harris' lineage, sparking intense market controversy. Product structure, 10-30 billion yuan products operating income of 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.
Polymarket's wagering on the US election has reached $0.467 billion, up from last week's $0.364 billion, reflecting growing interest in the Trump vs. Harris campaign.
The platform allows users to bet on a variety of outcomes, including the US presidential election. Recently, due to Harris's potential nomination as the Democratic presidential candidate and Trump's potential assassination, the platform has received a lot of attention. As a result of a large influx of bets, Polymarket platform has added MoonPay to handle the increased amount of betting and open the door to cryptos.
As a result of a large influx of bets, Polymarket platform has added MoonPay to handle the increased amount of betting and open the door to cryptos according to Bloomberg.
Despite Harris's recent gains, large bettors on Polymarket remain overwhelmingly bullish on Trump, who maintains a significant lead with a 54% chance of winning.
However, Trump's lead has dropped significantly from 72% on July 16 to 54%. At the same time, Harris' chance of winning was only 37% on July 31, but has since risen to 45%, the highest chance since she entered the race. #US_Election#
(Source: Polymarket)
Recent polls, in addition to the crypto prediction markets, have provided support for Harris' campaign. These polls indicate that she is leading Trump in critical swing states.
A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll shows Harris leading Trump in Michigan by 53%-42%.
Other surveys show that she is leading or tied with Trump in states such as Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada.
These survey data may cause a surge in Harris' betting odds on platforms such as Polymarket, whose interactive maps and trend market analyses reflect a vibrant and competitive election season.
However, while polls may be a factor, the timing seems to coincide more with Trump's performance in front of a group of black journalists, when he questioned Harris' lineage and claimed he was invited under a "false pretext" after being challenged on his comments regarding the black community.
Anthony Scaramucci, Founder of SkyBridge Capital and former Trump press secretary, believes that Trump's performance will lead to a drop in his poll numbers.
"It's not over yet, Trump may drop out of the race. Look at the sharp drop in his polls, and you can see what's going to happen," he commented.
Scott Johnsson, General Partner at Van Buren Capital, commented on the drop in Bitcoin's price to $63,700: "The irony of Trump's speech is that the entire crypto industry is totally linked to this crypto event."