Capex 显著下降+国补应收账款下发，公司现金流有望大幅改善，公司拟制定新阶段分红规划回馈股东。2023 年公司经营现金流净额9.78 亿元（若剔除《企业会计准则解释第14号》影响，公司经营现金流净额为13.14 亿元），Capex 为7.22 亿元（若剔除会计准则14 号解释影响，Capex 为10.8 亿元），自由现金流为2.56 亿元，未来伴随Capex 降低+应收款解决，公司现金流有望进一步明显好转。其中Capex 自2024 年有望伴随项目全面投产而显著降低，应收账款方面，2023 公司应收账款大幅提升至19.73 亿元，其中垃圾处理占比45%，国补40%，基础电费15%，未来有望伴随国补加速下发而改善。伴随现金流改善，公司分红有望提升，2024 年7 月公司发布《2024 年度“提质增效重回报”行动方案》，明确拟制定新阶段分红规划。我们预计公司分红率有望在2023 年33%基础之上进一步提升。假设公司24 年净利润6.97 亿元，分红率提升至50%，则公司A 股股息有望达4.3%，港股股息有望达10.1%。Key points of investment:
The company is a waste incineration listing platform under the Beijing State-owned Assets Administration Commission. Its performance mainly contributes to stable operating profits. The company has been deeply involved in waste incineration for more than 20 years and is the first listed A+H waste incineration company in China. The Beijing State-owned Assets Administration Commission is the actual controller of the company, holding 44.41% of the shares, and provides strong support to the company. Operating revenue is the company's core source of profit. In 2023, the company's operating revenue accounted for 77%, while gross profit accounted for 91%.
0.04 million tons of waste incineration are fully put into operation, and the company's operating profit is expected to increase steadily. The company's waste incineration production capacity reached 0.0402 million tons/day, 858 MW of installed capacity, an average scale of 1,087 tons/day, and was mainly distributed in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Bohai Rim. The project quality is excellent. In the first half of 2024, the company's capacity utilization rate reached 95%, and tons of waste-to-energy generation reached 296 kilowatts. Considering the rapid increase in the company's production capacity by 0.0074 million tons/day in the past 2 years, this part of the production capacity performance has not been fully released. Under a multi-pronged approach of increasing future capacity utilization, heating+green certificate+loan replacement (the company's interest-bearing debt of about 12 billion, corresponding financial expenses of 0.473 billion, capital cost about 4%), the company's profit is expected to increase steadily.
Capex has declined marked+the issuance of national supplement accounts receivable, and the company's cash flow is expected to improve significantly. The company plans to develop a new stage dividend plan to give back to shareholders. In 2023, the company's net operating cash flow was $0.978 billion (if the impact of “Interpretation of Accounting Standards for Enterprises No. 14” is excluded, the company's net operating cash flow is 1.314 billion yuan), Capex is 0.722 billion yuan (if the impact of the interpretation of Accounting Standard 14 is excluded, Capex is 1.08 billion yuan), and free cash flow is 0.256 billion yuan. In the future, along with Capex's reduction and receivables settlement, the company's cash flow is expected to improve significantly . Among them, Capex is expected to decrease significantly with the full commissioning of the project in 2024. In terms of accounts receivable, the company's accounts receivable in 2023 will rise sharply to 1.973 billion yuan, of which garbage disposal accounts for 45%, the state subsidy is 40%, and the basic electricity bill is 15%. It is expected that the future will improve with the accelerated issuance of national subsidies. Along with the improvement in cash flow, the company's dividends are expected to increase. In July 2024, the company issued the “2024 “Improving Quality, Efficiency and Reward” Action Plan, which clearly proposes to formulate a new stage dividend plan. We expect the company's dividend rate to increase further from 33% in 2023. Assuming the company's net profit for 24 years is 0.697 billion yuan, and the dividend rate increases to 50%, the company's A share dividend is expected to reach 4.3%, and the Hong Kong stock dividend is expected to reach 10.1%.
Investment analysis opinion: We expect the company's net profit to be 0.697/0.762/0.831 billion yuan in 2024-26, equivalent to EPS of 0.50/0.55/0.60, and the corresponding PE of 12/11/10. Referring to the average PE of comparable companies, and considering the steady increase in the company's profit, the free cash flow has improved dramatically, and dividends are expected to increase. The company was given 15 x PE in 2024. The corresponding target price was 7.5 yuan, with room for increase of 30%. For the first time, coverage was given, and a “buy” rating was given.
Risk warning: Continued increase in accounts receivable and recovery risk; risk of national compensation maturity; risk of the company's capacity utilization rate falling short of expectations; risk of EPS dilution due to debt-for-equity swaps.
