According to the Zhixin Finance APP, the Hang Seng Index Company issued a document stating that the United States will hold a presidential election in November this year. Recently, the probability of former U.S. President Trump winning has surged and leads in opinion polls, and the performance of Hong Kong stocks during Trump's tenure from 2017 to 2021 is reviewed. The Hang Seng Index rose nearly 54% at that time, and the performance of different industries was different.

Trump is slightly ahead in polls.

The US presidential election will be held on November 5, 2024, which has already entered the final 100 days of the election phase, and the recent drastic changes in the situation have made the competition more intense. Since the incumbent President Biden announced his withdrawal, and then replaced by Vice President He Jinli as the Democratic candidate, the latest opinion polls show that the current situation is neck and neck, with Trump slightly ahead.

In early July, the Hang Seng Index Company analyzed the performance of Hong Kong stocks during the four-year cycle of the US election. With Trump leading in the polls, the company will take a closer look at the performance of Hong Kong stocks during his tenure.

Hong Kong stocks recorded a 54% increase during Trump's tenure.

Since Trump took office on January 20, 2017, Hong Kong stocks (represented by the Hang Seng Index) have performed quite well, with the Hang Seng Index recording a year-on-year increase of more than 43% in his first year of tenure. From 2018 to 2020, the Hang Seng Index recorded a decline of more than 12%.

Subsequently, due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Hong Kong stocks continued to fall, but rebounded strongly with the support of loose monetary policy. The market continued to rise after Biden's victory, and the Hang Seng Index recorded a nearly 22% increase from that time to Trump's departure. However, it is worth noting that the rise at that time was also benefited from the expectation of the end of the pandemic brought by the vaccine. Overall, the Hang Seng Index recorded a nearly 54% increase during Trump's tenure.

The information technology industry had the largest increase during Trump's tenure.

As for the performance of Hong Kong stock industries during Trump's tenure, the Hang Seng Composite Industry Index data shows that the information technology industry is the best performing industry during that period, with an increase of up to 224% (Figure 3), followed by the healthcare industry with 140% and essential consumer goods with 101%. Among the 12 industries, 9 recorded increases ranging from 4% to 224%, while the remaining 3 industries, including energy, comprehensive enterprises, and telecommunications, recorded a decline of 26% to 37%.

Editor/ping