（1）从产品来看，据弗若斯特沙利文，基础口腔护理产品占比由16年的87.7%降低至20 年的67.0%，智能化趋势下新兴品类如漱口水/液、电动产品呈现更高增速。（2）从功效看，据尼尔森，21 年牙龈护理、美白功效牙膏占比达28.0%、25.9%，但抗敏、儿童功效等细分赛道也在快速崛起。（3）从渠道来看，据尼尔森，线下渠道仍为口腔护理销售的基本盘，但 23 年牙膏、牙刷线上渠道占比较19 年分别提升10.62pct、7.34pct，口腔护理线上市场表现出强劲发展潜力。Core views:
The leading racetrack for anti-sensitive toothpaste segments. The company focuses on the anti-allergic toothpaste circuit. According to Wind, the company's revenue in 2019-2023 rose from 0.944 billion yuan to 1.376 billion yuan, and net profit to mother increased from 0.063 billion yuan to 0.141 billion yuan. The four major product matrices are complete.
Demand is escalating, and oral care is welcoming new opportunities. According to the company's prospectus, China's oral cleaning and care products market in '21 was 52.173 billion yuan, +4.56% over the same period last year. The industry is expected to face changes in the future:
(1) In terms of products, according to Frost & Sullivan, the share of basic oral care products dropped from 87.7% in 2016 to 67.0% in 2020. Emerging categories such as mouthwash/liquid and electric products showed higher growth rates under the intelligent trend. (2) In terms of efficacy, according to Nielsen, toothpaste with gum care and whitening effects accounted for 28.0% and 25.9% in '21, but segments such as anti-allergy and child benefits are also rapidly rising. (3) Looking at channels, according to Nielsen, offline channels are still the basic market for oral care sales, but the share of online channels for toothpaste and toothbrushes increased by 10.62 pct and 7.34 pct respectively in '23 compared to '19, and the online oral care market showed strong potential for development.
Domestic brands are deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and channel development is steady and progressive. In addition to basic anti-allergy platforms, the company develops medical research, specialized research and pre-care platforms to further segment anti-sensitive toothpaste functions, optimize the product matrix layout, fill gaps in the price band, and help the company achieve price increases. On the premise of stabilizing the basic offline market, the company continues to sink into the low-tier market to continue to seek growth. In addition, online channels are actively seeking change. The company has increased its spending on the two major e-commerce platforms JD and Aosha, while building e-commerce operation teams with interests such as Douyin, etc., and the gross margin and market share of e-commerce channels have been steadily increasing in recent years, and it is expected that the future will continue to drive the company's revenue growth.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. Dengkang is the leading anti-allergic toothpaste. According to Nielsen, the offline market share of “cold acid” reached 64.1% in '23, an increase of 9.86pct over '17. The company is expected to maintain its offline channel advantage while developing a second growth curve for online e-commerce to drive performance growth. The company's net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be 0.165/0.199/0.233 billion yuan. Referring to comparable company valuations, the company is given 30 x PE for 24 years, corresponding to a reasonable value of 28.68 yuan/share, and a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. Downside risks in the industry, risk of increased market competition, risk of raw material price fluctuations, and risk of online expansion falling short of expectations.