Hot news
Before Thursday's market opening, equity index futures rose in unison.
Growth tech stocks rose more than fell before the market, with Meta up nearly 8% and Nvidia up nearly 3%.
US media pays attention to Pelosi couple buying more Nvidia stocks last week, while reducing their Microsoft shares.
According to some US media like Business Insider, US former Speaker of the House of Representatives Pelosi submitted a financial disclosure statement to the House of Representatives department. His husband, Paul, bought more $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$stocks last week, while reducing his $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$stocks. According to the disclosure, Paul bought 0.01 million shares of Nvidia stock on July 26 with a transaction value between $1 million and $5 million; he also sold 5,000 shares of Microsoft stock with a transaction value between $1 million and $5 million.
A night of recovery of $320 billion! Deutsche Bank speaks: whether Nvidia will experience a "Cisco-style" crash in 2000 depends on its performance.
On Wednesday, the trading volume of some short-term options contracts surged. Some market participants believed that Keith Gill, known as Roaring Kitty, the leading retail investor, may have sold some of the company's recently disclosed options positions.$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The stock price surged nearly 13% and its market cap increased by $329 billion. The Nvidia stock price has continued to fluctuate and experienced four of the eight largest market cap crashes in July alone. Deutsche Bank stated on Wednesday that the future trend of Nvidia depends mainly on the profitability of this AI chip manufacturer after its explosive rise in the past few months and its subsequent fall.
As of the time of publication, Nvidia rose nearly 3% before the market.
iPhone sales decline improves, Apple's Q3 revenue may recover and continue to grow.
According to the Star Daily, $Apple (AAPL.US)$is likely to report a recovery in revenue for its Q3 (i.e., Q2 of this year) on Thursday. The company won back some Chinese customers by significantly reducing the price of the iPhone and sold more high-profit iPads with updated designs. According to the data, iPhone sales account for nearly half of Apple's total revenue, and the expected decline in Q2 is expected to improve significantly compared to before.
Meta soared nearly 8% before the market, Q2 profit surged by over 70%, and ad revenue exceeded expectations.
$Meta Platforms (META.US)$Q2 revenue was $39.071 billion, up 22% YoY, and the YoY growth rate of revenue exceeded 20% for the fourth consecutive quarter. EPS was $5.16 per share, up 73% YoY, better than the expected $4.74 per share. The ad revenue for the period was $38.33 billion, up 21.7% YoY, higher than the market expectation of $37.57 billion. Meta claimed that AI technology contributed greatly to the improvement of ad revenue. Meta expects Q3 revenue to be between $38.5 billion and $41 billion, and its capital expenditures to be between $37 billion and $40 billion for the year, up from the previous estimate of $35 billion to $40 billion.
Arm fell more than 9% before the market, falling short of expectations for Q1 licensing revenue, and announced it would no longer report the shipment of chips based on the Arm architecture.
$Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$Revenue for Q1 of fiscal 2025 was $0.939 billion, up 39% YoY, and adjusted EPS was $0.4 per share, up 67% YoY, better than the expected $0.34 per share. Licensing revenue for the period was $0.467 billion, up 17% YoY, slowing down from the expected growth rate of $0.492 billion. At the same time, Arm announced that it will no longer report the shipment volume of chips based on the Arm architecture starting this quarter.
Quarterly profit reaches record high.$Toyota Motor (7203.JP)$Dropping more than 6% before the market opens, due to the certification scandal apology before.
$Toyota Motor (TM.US)$By continuing to reduce costs, the company achieved an additional operating profit of JPY 55 billion (approximately USD 0.367 billion). However, due to the government's discovery of irregularities in certification approval documents, production of some Japanese car models of Toyota had to be suspended. Toyota has publicly apologized for this and stated that it is making active efforts to resume production.
Volkswagen's Q2 profit margin declined.
As of 2023, the company's overall sales volume was 18,000 kiloliters, which is a significant growth of +28.10% compared to the previous year. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products with an amount between 100-300 billion yuan is 401/1288/60 million yuan, respectively. $VOLKSWAGEN A G (VWAGY.US)$The group's operating margin declined due to restructuring costs and a drop in sales volume in the Chinese market, from 7% in the same period last year to 6.6% in the three months ended June, Volkswagen said on Thursday. The operating margin of the so-called core group of Volkswagen, SEAT and Škoda fell to 5%, and the company is working to reduce the cost of these brands.$Eastman Kodak (KODK.US)$Pre-market slightly rose, with 20498 vehicles delivered in July, a decrease of 3.4% compared to the previous month.
Carvana rose more than 10% in pre-market trading, with second-quarter revenue exceeding expectations and unexpectedly turning losses into profits.
US online used car retailer$Carvana (CVNA.US)$In the second quarter, revenue was $3.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15%, exceeding market expectations of $3.26 billion. Net income was US$48 million, with earnings per share of US$0.14, compared with a loss of US$105 million, or a loss per share of US$0.55, in the same period last year. The company sold more than 0.1 million used cars during the period, a year-on-year increase of 33%, with a market share of only 1%. The company expects retail sales to increase on a month-on-month basis in the third quarter.
Li Auto Inc. rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading, with 0.051 million new cars delivered in July, a new high.
$Li Auto (LI.US)$51000 new cars were delivered in July, a historic high for monthly deliveries, up 49.4% year-on-year. A total of 239,981 cars were delivered from January to July 2024. As of July 31, 2024, Li Auto has delivered a total of 873,345 cars, ranking first in the total delivery volume of Chinese new energy vehicle brands.
Xpeng fell slightly in pre-market trading, with 11,145 vehicles delivered in July, a year-on-year increase of 1%.
In July 2024,$XPeng (XPEV.US)$A total of 63,173 new cars were delivered by Xpeng from January to July 2024, an increase of 20% year-on-year.
$NIO Inc. USD OV (NIO.SG)$Republican presidential candidate Trump said on Wednesday that he opposed everyone owning electric cars, despite the support of Tesla's CEO Musk. On the National Association of Black Journalists annual conference in Chicago, Trump intensified his criticism of the so-called electric vehicle mandate, claiming that the US government has issued regulations requiring drivers to buy electric cars. He also claimed that there is more oil under American soil than in any other country, more than Saudi Arabia and Russia, and hoped to use these resources to lower prices and costs.
$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$In July, 20,498 cars were delivered, a 3.4% decrease from the previous month. From January to July, 107,924 cars were delivered, a year-on-year increase of 43.9%. As of July 31, 2024, the cumulative delivery volume reached 557,518 vehicles.
Following Taobao and Douyin e-commerce, PDD Holdings has also set GMV as its primary goal.
It is understood that $PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$In the second quarter of this year, the business focus was adjusted from pursuing commercialization and improving profits to putting GMV back as the first target. Faced with fierce competition, PDD needs to consolidate the foundation of its domestic business and maintain its advantages.
TAL Education's pre-market performance rose by nearly 4% as Q1 results exceeded expectations.
$TAL Education (TAL.US)$Net revenue for the first quarter was $414.2 million, surpassing the market estimate of $395.9 million. The earnings per share for the first quarter were 6 cents, also higher than expected.
Pre-earnings transaction volume surged, and Apple and Amazon call options rose.
Pre-earnings period option trading volume soared, and Apple and Amazon's post-market trading opened on Thursday!$Apple (AAPL.US)$Up 1.5% overnight, and the call options ratio rose to 60%. The trading volume rose slightly to 0.525 million shares, and the options chain was anxious between bulls and bears. The call option with a strike price of $230 and an expiration date of tomorrow had the highest trading volume, reaching 0.023 million shares, with an open interest of 0.034 million shares.
$Amazon (AMZN.US)$Up nearly 3% overnight, and the call options ratio surged to 72%. The trading volume rose slightly to 0.354 million shares, and the bulls dominated the options chain. The call option with a strike price of $200 tomorrow had the highest trading volume, reaching 0.02 million shares, with an open interest of 0.028 million shares.
Global macro
The US economy is not as strong as it seems! "New Bond King" Gundlach: The Fed should have started an interest rate cut cycle in July.
As expected by the market, the Federal Reserve remained unchanged on Wednesday, and Chairman Powell subsequently signaled a rate cut in September. In the view of Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital and the 'new bond king', the Fed should cut rates as soon as possible. Gundlach said that the Fed should have launched a rate cut cycle on Wednesday; in addition, he believes that data such as rising unemployment rates and slowing economic growth indicate that the economic situation is not optimistic. The upcoming election will not be affected by the rate cut, and the Fed should not delay its decision to cut rates due to political factors.
JPMorgan: Still expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and December each time.
Raisah Rasid, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said that the possibility of a recent interest rate cut has increased, causing the stock market to rebound and bond yields to fall. The bank still expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and December each time, and to cut interest rates four times next year. Overall, I believe that the Fed will evaluate the overall economic data performance and act patiently. Investors should also be cautious and pay attention to the risks of slowing economic growth and geopolitics, and maintain a balance in global and US stock allocation.
Hedge fund giant: The valuation of the 'seven sisters' in the US stock market is not unreasonable.
The well-known hedge fund Man Group in the United Kingdom said that the stock prices of the 'Big Seven' in the U.S. stock market are not 'outrageously high'. Only by producing relatively reasonable returns can the rationality of their valuations be proved. After experiencing last week's sell-off, the valuations of the seven giants in the U.S. tech stock market have returned to a level that can prove the rationality of their valuations. In terms of growth, the market has the highest expectations for Microsoft, which needs to achieve a 17% growth in free cash flow every year to achieve an annual return rate of 10%. Meta's expectations are lowest, and its free cash flow only needs to achieve an 8.5% growth to achieve the same 10% annual return rate.
Trump: Although Musk supports me, I am against everyone owning electric cars.
On Wednesday, USA Republican presidential candidate Trump stated that although...$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Low stock price gasoline
The expectation of a rate cut by the Fed in September drove the rise of U.S. bonds at the end of the month, and the yield of U.S. bonds touched a more than four-month low.
On Wednesday, after Fed Chairman Powell said there may be a rate cut in September, U.S. Treasury bonds rose. This rise has continued for three consecutive months, marking the longest continuous rise in U.S. bonds in three years. The yield of U.S. bonds has dropped by about 10 basis points or more, as some risk-averse buying was triggered by the tension in the Middle East, and this trend accelerated later in the day. The yield of two-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell to the lowest level since February this year, and traders expect that there will be at least two rate cuts starting from the next meeting this year.
Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.
Reminder for US Macro Events
(All in Peking Time)
20:30 Beijing time: Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending July 27th (in ten thousand people).
21:45 Beijing time: SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final Value for July in the U.S.
22:00 Beijing time: June construction spending month-on-month in the U.S. (%), U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for July.
22:30 Beijing time: EIA Crude Oil Inventory Change for the week ending July 26th (in ten thousand barrels) in the U.S.
To be determined: OPEC+ will hold a ministerial working group meeting to review production policies.
Editor/Emily