Q2 煤电利润下滑或受发电量减少+煤耗提升影响，度电盈利下滑明显。2024Q2公司燃煤发电业务实现实现利润总额 11.6 亿元，度电利润总额0.015 元/Kwh，较2024Q1 下降0.016 元/Kwh。我们认为度电盈利环比降幅较大的原因或有以下几点：（1）受来水偏丰，降水影响用电需求，机组检修等因素影响，24Q2 上网电量较24Q1 减少141.3 亿度，燃煤机组的度电固定成本或将有所提升；（2）因为Q1 为供暖季，供电煤耗相对较低，Q2 煤耗或将有所提升。Key points of investment
Incident: The company released its 2024 semi-annual report. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 118.8 billion yuan, -5.7% year over year; net profit to mother of 7.45 billion yuan, +18.2% year over year.
24Q2 performance fell short of expectations, and total profits from wind power and coal power declined month-on-month. 2024Q2 achieved operating income of 53.44 billion yuan, -12.1% YoY; realized net profit to mother of 2.86 billion yuan, or -29.6% YoY, lower than our previous expectations. Among them, the company achieved a total profit of 1.16 billion yuan in 2024Q2, a decrease of 59.1% over the previous month; the wind power sector achieved a total profit of 1.62 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.1% over the previous month.
Q2 The decline in coal and electricity profits may be affected by a decrease in power generation and an increase in coal consumption, and electricity profits have declined significantly. 2024Q2's coal-fired power generation business achieved a total profit of 1.16 billion yuan and a total electricity profit of 0.015 yuan/kwh, down 0.016 yuan/kwh from 2024Q1. We believe that the reason for the significant month-on-month decline in electricity profits may be as follows: (1) Due to factors such as abundant incoming water, precipitation affecting electricity demand, and unit maintenance, the fixed electricity consumption cost of coal-fired units may increase by 14.13 billion degrees compared to 24Q1; (2) because Q1 is the heating season, coal consumption for electricity supply is relatively low, and Q2 coal consumption may increase.
Total wind power profit in Q2 fell 23% year over year, or was affected by poor wind. The 2024Q2 company installed 185.4 MW of grid-connected wind power and 1252.9 MW of grid-connected photovoltaics. At the same time, the company shut down 32 fans at the Wenchang wind farm in 24Q2 (47.5 MW in total). In terms of feed-in power, the company's 24Q2 wind power feed-in capacity was only +1.8% year-on-year, while 24H1 wind power feed-in capacity was +12.5% year-on-year. We expect 24Q2's incoming wind conditions to be poor, affecting wind power output, leading to a decline in electricity consumption profit. The 24Q2 wind power sector's electricity profit was 0.183 yuan/kwh, down 0.058 yuan/kwh. The total profit of the wind power sector was 1.62 billion yuan, down 23.0% year on year and 33.1% month on month.
Investment suggestions and valuation: Referring to the company's semi-annual report, we adjusted the company's profit forecast. The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is 257.08 billion yuan, 263.54 billion yuan, and 268.66 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 1.1%, 2.5%, and 1.9%, respectively. Net profit to mother is 11.833 billion yuan, 12.773 billion yuan, and 13.509 billion yuan, respectively. The growth rates are 40.1%, 7.9%, 5.8%, maintaining the “Overweight” rating.
Risk warning: risk of fluctuations in coal prices, risk of electricity price reduction, new wind power and photovoltaic installations falling short of expectations, etc.
