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A preview in one image | Super micro computer, the most popular "AI darling", is about to release its financial performance! AI product revenue is expected to remain strong. What other key points should we pay attention to in this financial report?

Futu News · Aug 2 19:56

$超微电脑 (SMCI.US)$将于美东时间8月6日（下周二）盘后发布财报，机构预计其2024财年第四财季将实现营收52.93亿美元，同比增加142.27%；预期每股收益7.83美元，同比增加128.31%。

今年以来，超微电脑受其在人工智能服务器市场的强劲地位的推动，已累计涨超140%，远远跑赢英伟达等AI概念股，成为最火AI“宠儿”。不过，自上一财季放榜后，由于第三财季不及预期，当日股价即下跌14%，近4个月内累计跌超20%。

此外，近期美股受Mag 7财报及一系列重大经济数据披露影响波动加剧，超微电脑此次“大考”能否在当前严峻的市场中立足呢？

产品收入仍将强劲，OEM设备与大型数据中心市场表现亮眼

此前，超微电脑发布的第四财季及全年业绩指引均超出市场预期，预计FY24Q4营收将达到51亿至55亿美元，同时调整后每股收益设定在7.62至8.42美元的区间内。

据彭博一致预期，预计超微电脑在FY24Q4的财务表现中，产品收入将继续展现出强劲的增长势头。

具体而言，分产品类型来看，其核心服务器与存储系统产品的预计收入将达到50.76亿美元，环比增长37%，占总营收的96%；子系统和附件产品预计收入2.21亿美元，环比增长46%，占总营收的4%。

从市场分布来看，超微电脑在OEM设备与大型数据中心市场的表现尤为突出，预计收入将达到29.3亿美元，环比激增63.6%，显示出公司在这一关键领域的强劲竞争力。此外，企业级与渠道市场也贡献了22.5亿美元的收入，环比增长接近20%，反映出公司业务的广泛覆盖与稳健增长。

值得注意的是，尽管5G、电信和边缘/物联网市场的收入规模相对较小，仅为4600万美元，但也预示着公司在新兴技术领域的积极布局与探索。

超微电脑财报关注焦点还有哪些？

展望本次超微电脑财报，市场将重点关注DLC项目、OEM系统毛利率、与马斯克xAI合作事项、AI新产品发布、以及营运资本的需求。

1、关于DLC项目，彭博BI分析师指出，公司创新的DLC液态冷却Building Blocks及机柜级整体解决方案已具备大批量生产能力。4至6月间，公司全力向三家顶尖客户交付超过1000个搭载NVIDIA HGX AI超级计算机的机柜，当前月产能已突破2000机柜，并预计DLC机架将在2-4周内完成周转。每个DLC机柜功率峰值可达100千瓦至120千瓦，展现强劲性能。

然而，巴克莱分析师提出，部分DLC项目或因供应链挑战而遭遇延期，可能归因于液冷组件（如冷板、歧管等）供应短缺，或是供应商为确保无泄漏而加强质检流程，延长了生产周期，进而影响到项目的原定时间表。

2、此外，在NVIDIA Blackwell周期的背景下，随着市场因数百个OEM系统选择的增加而竞争日趋白热化，对于超微电脑毛利率能否恢复至并超越14%（长期目标设定在14%-17%之间）的信心评估显得尤为重要。同时，面对Dell以低利润率抢占AI服务器市场的策略，毛利率持续成为超微电脑的一大挑战。

据Wells Fargo分析师预计，本次财季的实际毛利率有望达到14%的中段水平，且长期而言，随着DLC机架业务的拓展，其高毛利率特性（得益于SMCI自主研发的液冷系统关键部件所带来的溢价能力）将助力整体毛利率向14%-17%的目标迈进。

由于超微电脑在DLC机架领域展现出对Dell的显著领先优势，预计至少提前两个季度进入市场实质性出货阶段，而Dell的相应计划可能延至2024年底或2025年。

3、另一方面，还需注意超微电脑与马斯克的AI初创公司xAI的合作，将为其打造超级计算机所需的服务器机架，投资者可在电话会上关注。目前，xAI正致力于开发驱动AI聊天机器人Grok更新的超级计算机，预计于2025年秋前投运。

据马斯克透露，该机组将由超微电脑和Dell各承担一半。

4、超微电脑还将在在9月至12月期间推出多款创新产品，强化NVIDIA与Intel支持，采用高效液冷与ENRC技术，推出高功率密度新机架及基于未来GPU（NVIDIA H200/B100/B200/GH200/GB200与Intel Gaudi2/Gaudi3及AMD MI300X/MI300A）的AI推理优化系统。

5、同时，还需关注超微电脑的营运资本密集度与库存扩张带来的资金需求，特别是库存扩张至41.25亿美元（第三财季环比增长67%），及购买承诺增加至29亿美元（第三财季末环比增长10亿美元）。

此前，公司CFO表示将希望筹集更多的资金需求以此满足潜在的需求市场。

历次财报日股价如何表现？

根据Market Chameleon，回测过去12个季度业绩日，超微电脑在业绩发布当天上涨概率较高，约为75%，股价平均变动为±12.8%，最大跌幅为-23.4%，最大涨幅为+31.2%。超微电脑在今年两次季绩日表现分别为-14%和+3.5%。

当前，超微电脑的隐含变动为±13.4%，表明期权市场押注其绩后单日涨跌幅达13.4%；对比来看，超微电脑前4季度的绩后平均股价变动为±10.8%，显示该股当前期权价值期权被高估。

波动率偏度来看，当前市场对该股倾向略微看跌。

编辑/ping

$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$The earnings report will be released after market close on August 6th Eastern Time. Institutions predict that its Q4 FY24 will achieve revenue of $5.293 billion, an increase of 142.27% YoY, and expected EPS of $7.83, an increase of 128.31% YoY.

Since the beginning of this year, Super Micro Computer has risen more than 140% due to its strong position in the AI server market, far outperforming AI-concept stocks such as Nvidia and becoming the most popular AI darling. However, since the announcement of the previous quarter's financial results, the stock price dropped by 14% in a day due to lower-than-expected Q3 results, and has fallen more than 20% in the past four months.

In addition, the recent volatility in the US stock market due to the disclosure of Mag 7's financial report and a series of major economic data has intensified. Can Super Micro Computer stand firm in the current challenging market?

Product revenue will remain strong, and performance in the OEM equipment and large data center markets is remarkable.

Previously, Super Micro Computer's Q4 and full-year performance guidance exceeded market expectations. It is expected that Q4 FY24 revenue will reach a range of $5.1 billion to $5.5 billion, and adjusted EPS will be set within the range of $7.62 to $8.42.

According to Bloomberg's unanimous expectations, Super Micro Computer's product revenue will continue to show strong growth momentum in FY24 Q4 financial performance.

Specifically, in terms of product type, the expected revenue of its core server and storage system products will reach $5.076 billion, a MoM growth of 37%, accounting for 96% of total revenue; the expected revenue of subsystem and accessory products will be $0.221 billion, a MoM growth of 46%, accounting for 4% of total revenue.

In terms of market distribution, Super Micro Computer's performance in the OEM equipment and large data center markets is particularly outstanding. It is expected that revenue will reach $2.93 billion, a MoM increase of 63.6%, demonstrating the company's strong competitiveness in this key area. In addition, enterprise-level and channel markets also contributed $2.25 billion in revenue, a MoM increase of nearly 20%, reflecting the wide coverage and robust growth of the company's business.

It is worth noting that although the revenue scale of the 5G, telecommunications, and edge/IoT markets is relatively small, only $46 million, it also indicates the company's active layout and exploration in the emerging technology field.

What are the other focuses of Super Micro Computer's earnings report?

Looking at this Super Micro Computer earnings report, the market will focus on the DLC project, OEM system gross margin, cooperation with Musk's xAI, the release of new AI products, and operating capital needs.

1. Regarding the DLC project, Bloomberg BI analysts pointed out that the company's innovative DLC liquid cooling Building Blocks and cabinet-level overall solutions have mass production capabilities. From April to June, the company delivered more than 1,000 cabinets with NVIDIA HGX AI supercomputers to three top customers. The current monthly production capacity has exceeded 2,000 cabinets, and the DLC racks are expected to complete turnover within 2 to 4 weeks. Each DLC cabinet has a peak power of 100 kW to 120 kW, showing strong performance.

However, Barclays analysts pointed out that some DLC projects may encounter delays due to supply chain challenges, which may be attributed to short supply of liquid cooling components (such as cold plates, manifolds, etc.) or suppliers strengthening quality inspection processes to ensure no leakage, thereby extending the production cycle and affecting the original project schedule.

2. In addition, against the backdrop of the NVIDIA Blackwell cycle, as the market competition heats up due to the increase in hundreds of OEM system choices, it is particularly important to evaluate with confidence whether Super Micro Computer's gross profit margin can recover to and surpass 14% (the long-term target is set between 14% and 17%). At the same time, facing Dell's strategy of seizing the AI server market at low profit margins, gross margin continues to be a major challenge for Super Micro Computer.

According to Wells Fargo analysts, the actual gross profit margin for this quarter is expected to reach a middle-of-the-road level of 14%, and in the long run, the high gross profit margin characteristics (due to the premium ability brought by the key components of SMCI's self-developed liquid cooling system) of the DLC cabinet business will help the overall gross profit margin move toward the target of 14%-17%.

Since Super Micro Computer has shown a significant leading advantage over Dell in the DLC cabinet field, it is expected to enter the substantial shipping phase of the market at least two quarters ahead of schedule, while Dell's corresponding plan may be delayed until the end of 2024 or 2025.

3. On the other hand, it is also necessary to pay attention to Super Micro Computer's cooperation with Musk's AI startup xAI, which will create server cabinets required for its supercomputer for driving AI chatbot Grok updates. Currently, xAI is committed to developing supercomputers, which are expected to be put into operation before the fall of 2025.

According to Musk, the unit will be split evenly between Super Micro Computer and Dell.

In addition, Super Micro Computer will launch multiple innovative products from September to December, strengthening support from NVIDIA and Intel, using efficient liquid cooling and ENRC technology, and introducing high power density new chassis and AI inference optimized systems based on future GPUs (NVIDIA H200/B100/B200/GH200/GB200 and Intel Gaudi2/Gaudi3 and AMD MI300X/MI300A).

At the same time, attention needs to be paid to Super Micro Computer's capital intensity and funds needed for inventory expansion, especially as inventory expansion increases to $4.125 billion (an increase of 67% from the previous quarter) and purchase commitments increase to $2.9 billion (an increase of $1 billion from the end of the previous quarter).

Previously, the company's CFO stated that they would hope to raise additional funds to meet potential market demand.

How has the stock price performed on past earnings days?

According to Market Chameleon, in the past 12 quarters, in days where backtesting was conducted, Super Micro Computer had a higher probability of rising on the day of its performance announcement, around 75%, with an average stock price change of ±12.8%, a maximum decline of -23.4%, and a maximum increase of +31.2%. Super Micro Computer's performance on the two quarterly announcement days this year were -14% and +3.5%, respectively.

Currently, Super Micro Computer's implied change is ±13.4%, indicating that the options market is betting that its single-day rise or fall after performance will reach 13.4%; in comparison, Meta's average stock price change after the previous four quarters was ±10.8%, indicating that this stock's current option value is overestimated.

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Editor/ping

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