FUTU Morning Post

Futu Morning News | Economic data leads to recession speculation! Bond market pricing expects three interest rate cuts this year; US stocks experienced another "nightmare", Intel fell more than 20% after the market closed.

热点要闻

引衰退猜想！美国失业救济申请创新高，制造业PMI萎缩加剧

8月1日周四，美国劳工部公布的最新数据显示，当周首次申请失业救济人数飙升至24.9万人，远超预期的23.6万人，达到12个月以来最高点。同日，ISM发布的制造业报告显示，7月ISM制造业指数显著不及预期，萎缩程度为八个月来最深，新订单与产出均呈现下滑趋势，导致就业人口出现四年来最大降幅，进一步加剧了经济衰退的担忧。

“新美联储通讯社”：降不降息，美联储都难免被卷入美国总统大选

美联储7月会议依然按兵不动，主席鲍威尔也一再“放鸽”，9月降息的大门正在打开。Nick Timiraos表示，美联储的行动可以改变经济结果，因此也可以间接产生重要的政治后果，美国总统大选带来的冲突还是可能会让美联储陷入两难境地；毕竟，在选举前降息可能会激怒共和党人和前总统特朗普，但如果不进行必要的降息则可能会破坏经济，并让民主党人不满。

美联储政策成财报电话会议焦点，CEO们对经济前景忧心忡忡

根据媒体对美股标普500指数欧洲斯托克600指数成分股公司财报电话会议记录的分析，“联邦储备”一词被提及的次数（如果按照现在频率）有望达到约380次，这将是2001年有追踪记录以来的最高水平。资管公司Premier Miton Investors首席投资官表示，美国企业可能注意到了消费放缓的早期迹象，他们想给美联储一个提示：如果我们不尽快降息，主要风险将从通胀转向经济放缓。

债市预期爆棚！交易员定价充分消化美联储今年三次降息

美联储主席鲍威尔将9月降息的可能性直接摆上台面后，意外疲软的美国经济数据强化了债市对美联储的降息预期爆棚。美东时间8月1日周四，互换合约的定价显示，交易员已经完全消化了今年美联储会合计降息75个基点的宽松预期。这意味着，他们预计，美联储会在今年剩余的三次货币政策会议上每次都决定降息25个基点。

再创新高！黄金期货短暂突破2500大关，降息预期和地缘动荡推波助澜

周四，纽约商品交易所黄金期货主连价格一度突破2500美元大关，最高报2506.6美元，再刷历史新高，现回落至2490美元附近。分析认为，从许多指标来看，美国劳动力市场已恢复到疫情前的水平。一些经济学家担忧，美联储行动太慢可能给美国经济造成风险。地缘因素方面，据消息人士透露，伊朗及其地区代表在德黑兰举行会议，讨论对以色列的报复策略。

美股复盘

衰退担忧引发抛售，三大指数大幅下跌，纳指跌超2%

美东时间周四，美股市场高开低走，投资者对经济的担忧引发了抛售，三大指数均大幅下跌，纳指跌超2%。

截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌1.21%，报40,347.97点；标普500指数跌1.37%，报5,446.68点；纳斯达克指数跌2.30%，报17,194.15点。

大型科技股普跌，特斯拉跌6.55%，苹果跌1.68%，亚马逊跌1.56%，谷歌跌0.45%，微软跌0.30%，Meta逆市涨4.82%。

芯片股集体大跌，费城半导体指数跌超7%，英特尔跌5.50%，阿斯麦跌5.66%，英伟达跌6.67%，美光科技跌7.57%，AMD跌8.26%，高通跌9.37%。

热门中概股普遍下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌3.35%，蔚来汽车跌8.56%，小鹏汽车跌5.33%，京东跌4.36%，理想汽车跌1.87%，阿里巴巴跌1.10%，网易跌1.10%，拼多多跌0.83%。

苹果盘后转涨，第三财季营收高于预期，大中华区销售额成唯一下跌

$苹果 (AAPL.US)$第三财季营收857.8亿美元，分析师预期844.6亿美元，连续六个季度营收和盈利均超预期，创下6月份季度的总营收和EPS史上最高，服务收入连续六季创新高，与iPad收入一同跳涨并推动总营收增超预期，iPhone收入虽同比下跌但总额好于预期，但中国市场令人失望，大中华区销售额下降6.5%，至147亿美元，低于市场预期的153亿美元。

截至发稿，苹果盘后涨0.77%。

盘后跌超8%，AI投入压力下云需求亮红灯，亚马逊Q3指引低于预期

$亚马逊 (AMZN.US)$第二财季销售净额1,479.8亿美元，经营利润146.7亿美元；预计第三财季销售净额1,540亿美元至1,585亿美元，分析师预期1584.3亿美元；预计第三财季经营利润115亿美元至150亿美元；分析师预期156.6亿美元。亚马逊三季度销售净额和利润指引均低于预期，体现对人工智能领域大举投入时的盈利压力，以及云业务需求不振的红灯。

截至发稿，亚马逊盘后跌超8%。

盘后一度跌超20%，英特尔Q2营收意外下滑，将裁员超15%，Q4开始暂停派息

$英特尔 (INTC.US)$第二财季营收128.3亿美元，分析师预期129.5亿美元；第二财季调整后每股收益0.020美元，分析师预期0.10美元；预计第三季度营收125亿美元至135亿美元，分析师预期143.8亿美元；预计第三财季调整后每股亏损0.030美元，分析师预期每股盈利0.30美元；实施裁员超过15%的计划；从2024年第四财季开始暂停派息。

截至发稿，英特尔跌超18%。

盘后跌超17%，Snap第三财季调整后息税前利润不及预期

$Snap Inc (SNAP.US)$第二财营收12.4亿美元，分析师预期12.5亿美元；第二财季调整后息税前利润为5500万美元美元，分析师预期4110亿美元；第二财季日活用户数4.32亿，分析师预期4.3117亿；预计第三财季营收13.4亿美元至13.8亿美元，分析师预期13.6亿美元；预计第三财季调整后息税前利润7000万美元至1亿美元，分析师预期1.105亿美元。

截至发稿，Snap盘后跌超17%。

让搜索更聪明！谷歌引入三大Chrome AI搜索功能

8月1日周四，谷歌公司宣布，为Chrome浏览器新增三个AI功能，包括谷歌Lens、标签页对比购物助手以及自然语言集成搜索历史。这些功能是由Gemini技术支持的，适用于Chrome的桌面版。这些新功能旨在提升用户的浏览体验，使其更智能、更便捷。

跌超20%，欧美销售低迷叠加竞争加剧，Moderna下调全年销售预测

美国生物技术企业$Moderna (MRNA.US)$2024年第二季度总营收2.41亿美元，上年同期为3.44亿美元，净亏损13亿美元，上年同期净亏损14亿美元。公司因欧洲市场的销售下滑、美国呼吸系统疫苗市场的激烈竞争，而大幅削减了全年销售预期，预计2024年的产品收入将在30亿美元到35亿美元之间，较之前预计的40亿美元有所下降。Moderna收跌超20%。

礼来“减肥药”可能大幅降低心力衰竭风险，CEO预计减肥药很快将摆脱供应短缺问题

媒体报道，$礼来 (LLY.US)$的重磅药物Zepbound在一项试验中改善了肥胖相关心力衰竭患者的长期健康状况，凸显了这种减肥药在心血管方面的益处。此外，礼来CEO透露，该公司的畅销减肥药即将结束在美国的短缺状态，这将对数十亿美元的复方制剂市场产生严重冲击。受此消息影响，礼来收涨超3%。

美股成交额TOP20

港市前瞻

北水大幅加仓港股ETF，卖出汇丰控股近3亿港元

8月1日（周四），南下资金净买入港股83.77亿港元。

$盈富基金 (02800.HK)$、$恒生中国企业 (02828.HK)$、$南方恒生科技 (03033.HK)$分别获净买入20.05亿港元、8.32亿港元、7.92亿港元；

$汇丰控股 (00005.HK)$、$中国神华 (01088.HK)$、$兖矿能源 (01171.HK)$分别遭净卖出2.82亿港元、2.06亿港元、4,048万港元。

今日关注

关键词：美国7月失业率、美国7月季调后非农就业人口、美国6月工厂订单月率

周五，经济数据方面，美国将公布7月失业率、美国7月季调后非农就业人口、美国6月工厂订单月率。

财报方面，$雪佛龙 (CVX.US)$将于今日公布财报；$埃克森美孚 (XOM.US)$将于美股盘前发布业绩；$AMC院线 (AMC.US)$将于美股盘后发布业绩。

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牛牛晨读：

要在别人贪婪的时候恐惧，而在别人恐惧的时候贪婪。
——巴菲特

编辑/ping

Hot news

Recession speculation intensifies! US jobless claims reach a new high, and the contraction of manufacturing PMI also worsens.

On Thursday, August 1st, the latest data released by the US Department of Labor showed that the number of initial jobless claims for the week soared to 2.49 million, far exceeding the expected 2.36 million, hitting the highest level in 12 months. On the same day, the manufacturing report published by ISM showed that the July ISM manufacturing index was significantly lower than expected, with the degree of contraction being the deepest in eight months. Both new orders and output showed a downward trend, resulting in the largest job loss in four years and further exacerbating concerns about the economic recession.

"New American Fed Communication Agency": Regardless of whether the interest rate is lowered or not, the Fed will inevitably be involved in the US presidential election.

The Federal Reserve remained unchanged at its July meeting, and Chairman Powell repeatedly expressed his dovish stance. The door to a rate cut in September is opening. Nick Timiraos said that the Fed's actions can change economic outcomes and therefore have important political consequences. The conflict brought by the US presidential election may still leave the Fed in a dilemma. After all, cutting interest rates before the election may anger Republicans and former President Trump, but if necessary interest rate cuts are not made, it may hurt the economy and upset Democrats.

Fed policy becomes the focus of earnings conference calls, CEOs are worried about the economic outlook.

According to an analysis of conference call records of companies in the S&P 500 Index and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index by media, the term "Federal Reserve" is expected to be mentioned about 380 times (if the current frequency is used), which will be the highest level tracked since 2001. The chief investment officer of Premier Miton Investors, a fund management firm, said that US companies may notice early signs of a slowdown in consumption, and they want to give the Fed a warning: if we do not cut interest rates soon, the main risk will shift from inflation to economic slowdown.

The bond market's expectations are soaring! Traders have fully priced in the three rate cuts by the Fed this year.

After Federal Reserve Chairman Powell put the possibility of a rate cut in September on the table, unexpectedly weak US economic data strengthened the market's expectation of a rate cut, which has been priced into the swap contract. This means that they expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining three monetary policy meetings this year.

New high again! Gold futures briefly broke through the 2,500 mark with the boost of interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical volatility.

On Thursday, the main price of NYMEX gold futures broke through the $2,500 mark and hit a historical high of $2,506.6 before falling back to around $2,490. Analysis shows that from many indicators, the US labor market has recovered to the level before the epidemic. Some economists worry that the Fed's actions are too slow and may pose a risk to the US economy. On the geopolitical front, according to sources, Iran and representatives from the region held a meeting in Tehran to discuss retaliation strategies against Israel.

Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.

Recession worries triggered selling, and all three major indices fell sharply, with the Nasdaq dropping more than 2%.

On Thursday, the US stock market opened high and fell low, with investors' concerns about the economy triggering selling and all three major indices falling sharply, with the Nasdaq falling more than 2%.

As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.21% to 40,347.97 points; the S&P 500 Index fell 1.37% to 5,446.68 points; and the Nasdaq Index fell 2.30% to 17,194.15 points.

Large technology stocks generally fell, with Tesla down 6.55%, Apple down 1.68%, Amazon down 1.56%, Google down 0.45%, Microsoft down 0.30%, and Meta up 4.82% against the trend.

Chip stocks fell collectively, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling more than 7%, Intel down 5.50%, ASML Holding down 5.66%, Nvidia down 6.67%, Micron Technology down 7.57%, AMD down 8.26%, and Qualcomm down 9.37%.

Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 3.35%, NIO Inc. down 8.56%, XPeng down 5.33%, JD.com down 4.36%, Li Auto Inc. down 1.87%, Alibaba down 1.10%, Netease down 1.10%, and PDD Holdings down 0.83%.

After hours, Apple turned up, with third-quarter revenue higher than expected, and sales in Greater China being the only one to decline.

$Apple (AAPL.US)$In Q3, revenue was $85.78 billion, analysts expected it to be $84.46 billion, sales and profits have exceeded expectations for six consecutive quarters, setting a record for total revenue and EPS in June quarter, revenue from services and iPad reached new highs for six consecutive quarters, driving total revenue growth beyond expectations. Although iPhone revenue declined year-on-year, the total amount was better than expected. However, the China market was disappointing, with sales in Greater China falling 6.5% to $14.7 billion, below market expectations of $15.3 billion.

As of press time, Apple rose 0.77% after hours.

After hours, it fell by more than 8%. Cloud demand is showing a red light under the pressure of investment in AI, and Amazon's Q3 guidance is below expectations.

$Amazon (AMZN.US)$Sales net revenue for Q2 was $147.98 billion, operating profit was $14.67 billion. Sales net revenue for Q3 is expected to be between $154 billion and $158.5 billion, with analysts predicting $158.43 billion. Operating profit is expected to be between $11.5 billion and $15 billion, with analysts predicting $15.66 billion. Amazon's Q3 sales net revenue and profit guidance are both below expectations, reflecting downward pressure on profits from heavy investments in the field of artificial intelligence, as well as a red light for demand in cloud business.

As of press time, Amazon's stock has fallen by more than 8% after hours.

After hours, it fell more than 20%. Intel's Q2 revenue unexpectedly declined and it plans to cut more than 15% of its workforce. It will also suspend dividend payments starting from Q4 2021.

$Intel (INTC.US)$Q2 revenue was $12.83 billion, while analysts had expected $12.95 billion. Adjusted EPS for Q2 was $0.020, while analysts had expected $0.10. Q3 revenue is expected to be between $12.5 billion and $13.5 billion, with analysts predicting $14.38 billion. Adjusted EPS for Q3 is expected to be a loss of $0.030 per share, while analysts predict earnings of $0.30 per share. The company plans to implement a plan to cut over 15% of its workforce, and stop paying dividends starting from Q4 2024.

As of press time, Intel's stock has fallen more than 18% after hours.

After hours, Snap's Q3 adjusted EBITDA was below expectations by an unknown amount.

$Snap Inc (SNAP.US)$Q2 sales revenue was $1.24 billion, while analysts had expected $1.25 billion. Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $55 million, while analysts had expected $411 billion. Q2 daily active users were 0.432 billion, while analysts had expected 0.43117 billion. Q3 sales revenue is expected to be between $1.34 billion and $1.38 billion, with analysts predicting $1.36 billion. Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 is expected to be between $70 million and $100 million, while analysts predict $110.5 million.

As of press time, Snap's stock has fallen more than 17% after hours.

Make searching smarter! Google introduces three new Chrome AI search features. On Thursday, August 1, Google announced three new AI features for its Chrome browser. These features are powered by Gemini technology and are for the desktop version of Chrome. The new features are designed to enhance the browsing experience, making it smarter and more convenient for users. The three new features are: Google Lens, tab compare shopping assistant, and natural language-integrated search history.

On Thursday, August 1, Google announced three new AI features for its Chrome browser. These features are powered by Gemini technology and are for the desktop version of Chrome. The new features are designed to enhance the browsing experience, making it smarter and more convenient for users. The three new features are: Google Lens, tab compare shopping assistant, and natural language-integrated search history.

After hours, it fell more than 20%. Moderna's European and American sales were sluggish, combined with increased competition, resulting in a significant reduction in its full-year sales forecast. The company now expects product revenue to be between $3 billion and $3.5 billion in 2024, down from the previous estimate of $4 billion. Moderna's stock has fallen by more than 20%.

An American biotechnology company$Moderna (MRNA.US)$Total revenue for Q2 2024 was $241 million, compared with $344 million for the same period last year. Net loss for Q2 2024 was $1.3 billion, compared with a net loss of $1.4 billion for the same period last year. The company significantly reduced its full-year sales forecast due to falling sales in the European market and intense competition in the U.S. respiratory vaccine market. It is expected that product revenue in 2024 will be between $3 billion and $3.5 billion, down from the previous estimate of $4 billion. Moderna's stock has fallen more than 20%.

Lilly's 'weight loss drug' could significantly reduce the risk of heart failure. The CEO expects that the weight loss drug will soon overcome supply shortages.

According to media reports,$Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$Lilly's blockbuster drug Zepbound improved the long-term health status of obese patients with heart failure in a trial, highlighting the cardiovascular benefits of this weight loss drug. In addition, Lilly's CEO revealed that the company's popular weight loss drug will soon come out of short supply in the United States, which will have a serious impact on the multi-billion dollar compound preparation market. Affected by this news, Lilly's stock has risen by more than 3%.

If you want to play this game, you must believe in yourself and your judgment.

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

The Northbound funds significantly increased their holdings of Hong Kong ETFs and sold nearly 0.3 billion Hong Kong dollars of HSBC Holdings.

On Thursday, August 1st, Southbound funds net bought 8.377 billion Hong Kong dollars of Hong Kong stocks.

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$Hang Seng H-Share Index ETF (02828.HK)$,$CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index ETF (03033.HK)$They respectively received net purchases of 2.005 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.832 billion Hong Kong dollars, and 0.792 billion Hong Kong dollars;

$HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$,$CHINA SHENHUA (01088.HK)$,$YANKUANG ENERGY (01171.HK)$They respectively suffered net sales of 0.282 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.206 billion Hong Kong dollars, and 40.48 million Hong Kong dollars.

The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

Keywords: USA July unemployment rate, USA July seasonally adjusted non-farm employment, USA June factory order rate.

On Friday, economic data will be released for USA July unemployment rate, USA July seasonally adjusted non-farm employment, USA June factory order rate.

Regarding financial reports,$Chevron (CVX.US)$Financial report will be released today;$Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$Financial results will be released in pre-market trading;$AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$Financial results will be released in post-market trading.

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Futubull Morning News:

Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.
- Buffett

Editor/ping

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