Global electric vehicle (EV) sales rose by 24% in the first half of 2024, reaching 6.7 million units and accounting for 21% of total car sales, according to Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank).
Fully electric car sales grew by 10.3% year-on-year (YoY) to 4.2 million units, while plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) saw a significant increase of 58.7% YoY, totalling 2.5 million units. Despite this, the growth of fully electric cars has slowed compared to previous years, attributed to a saturation of the market, the end of EV subsidies in Europe, and ongoing issues such as charging infrastructure and range anxiety.
The ASEAN region has experienced a notable rise in EV sales, with Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore leading the charge. Malaysia saw a remarkable 142% increase in EV registrations, reaching 10,663 units in 1H24. Indonesia reported a 104% surge, with 11,943 units sold, while Singapore's EV sales jumped by 218% YoY to 6,019 units.
Conversely, Thailand's EV market showed mixed results, with a strong start in January 2024 but slower growth in subsequent months. In Vietnam, VinFast reported a 26% increase in global EV sales to 21,747 units, despite a slowdown in the US market.
In response to increasing EV demand, several ASEAN countries are implementing supportive measures. Malaysia plans to cut fuel subsidies, potentially boosting EV adoption. The Philippines has expanded its tax incentives to include 2/3-wheelers and hybrids, while Indonesia has extended tariff cuts for local EV manufacturing until the end of 2025.
Meanwhile, China is poised to dominate the ASEAN market, with a projected production capacity of 750,000 cars annually in Thailand over the next two years. Japanese original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) such as Honda and Suzuki are closing their operations in Thailand, contrasting with the growing presence of Chinese carmakers.
Despite a global battery cell glut, which could reduce EV prices, the outlook remains positive for ASEAN automakers, especially those partnering with Chinese manufacturers. The region's strong automotive production base and increasing regulatory support for EVs are expected to drive further growth.
Analysts from Maybank highlight that ASEAN companies engaged in battery value chains and those with partnerships with Chinese carmakers are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing shift towards electric mobility.
Maybank's research indicates that while global EV sales are projected to continue rising, with an estimated 17 million units expected in 2024, regional dynamics will play a crucial role in shaping the future of the EV market. Investors should consider the expanding opportunities in ASEAN's EV sector, supported by favourable regulations and a growing market presence.