There are expected to be many varieties in the field of domestic ADC drugs with sales of tens of billions of yuan. Both Biopharma and Biotech have a lot of focus on layout. It is recommended to actively pay attention to pharmaceutical companies with smooth clinical progress and prospects for going abroad.
Zhongyoud Securities released a research report stating that ADC drugs combine the high specificity targeting ability of antibodies and the strong killing effect of drugs, which can achieve precise attack on tumor cells. Especially in the field of solid tumor treatment, it has great advantages. Frost & Sullivan predicts that the global ADC market is expected to reach $64.7 billion by 2030, and the domestic market is also expected to reach RMB 66.2 billion. There are expected to be many varieties in the field of domestic ADC drugs with sales of tens of billions of yuan. It is recommended to actively pay attention to pharmaceutical companies with smooth clinical progress and prospects for going abroad.
Process optimization, combination therapy, and dual antibody ADC drive the innovative development of the industry.
From the perspective of technological development, ADC drugs have been developed from the beginning of the 20th century to the fourth generation today. The strategy of pursuing high-activity loading in the process emphasizes the selectivity and precision of effective loading. Currently, the development of ADC drugs has entered a stage of diversified development. According to Insight data, there are 519 domestic ADC new drugs under development, accounting for 43.8% of the world, and Chinese pharmaceutical companies have become core participants in global ADC research and development. There are a total of 155 domestic ADCs that have entered clinical trials, accounting for 41.1% of the world. Especially in target points such as HER2, Nectin-4, CLDN18.2, and B7-H3, they have shown significant efficacy and good safety. Some drugs have been recognized at international academic conferences, and the results of combination therapy and dual antibody ADCs have demonstrated the competitiveness and influence of domestic innovative drug companies on the international stage.
Strong commercialization, rich product portfolio, and heavyweight single product advantages are evident among manufacturers.
Internationally, in 2023, Roche's products Kadcyla and Polivy have a total sales of $3.133 billion, accounting for about 30.72% of the total market share and occupies the first position in the market. The ADC developed by the collaboration between Daiichi Sankyo and AstraZeneca, Enhertu, will become the top-selling ADC in the field in 2023 with a growth trend in sales. As an old player in the ADC field, Seagen was acquired by Pfizer for $43 billion in April 2023, and its ADC product sales also performed well in 2023.
In the analysis of Roche, Daiichi Sankyo, AstraZeneca, and Seagen's layout in the ADC drug field, Zhongyoud Securities believes that the top multinational pharmaceutical companies in the world have their own advantages in commercialization, self-developed products, rich product portfolios, and heavyweight single products. Domestic companies, Rongchang Bio has been approved for the first domestic ADC drug, taking the lead, and laying out multiple emerging targets such as cMET, Nectin-4, and Claudin18.2; Kelunbio's core product SKB264 has made new breakthroughs and is expected to enter the international market; Lepu Biologics IO+ADC combination therapy fully demonstrates the synergistic effect of pipeline coordination; Bailitaiheng has established the SEBA dual antibody platform and the HIRE-ADC technology platform, with the first EGFR x HER3 dual antibody ADC and three four-specificity antibodies that have entered clinical stages. Domestic manufacturers are vigorously conducting research and development while actively carrying out business development, and the industry's high prosperity is expected to continue.
Benefit targets: Rongchang Bio (09995), Kelun Bio (06990), Lepu Bio (02157), Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (600276.SH), Innovent Bio (01801), Bailitaiheng (688506.SH), Bio-Thera Solutions (688177.SH), and InnoCare Pharma (688382.SH).
Risk warning: Industry competition intensifies risks, new drug research and development is less than expected risks, and sales are less than expected risks.