Baijiu stocks fell, and the alcohol ETF, food ETF, consumer ETF leader, consumption 30ETF, consumption ETF, food and beverage ETF, and drink ETF fell by more than 2%.
From the fund flow of ETF, funds flowed slightly into Huabao Fund Food ETF, Huahan Fund Food and Beverage ETF Fund, CCB Fund Food and Beverage ETF, and Yinhe Fund Food ETF in July.
From the perspective of the fund's heavy holdings, the proportion of food and beverage of the 2024Q2 configuration (the ratio of the market value of heavy holdings to the total market value of heavy stocks) fell from 14.1% in 2024Q1 to the level of 11.0%, a decrease of 3.2% from the previous quarter, and at a low level in recent years. In terms of decomposition, it is mainly due to the 2.6% decrease in the proportion of baijiu-heavy holdings to 9.9%.
The decline was mainly due to the decrease of baijiu-heavy holdings by 2.6% to 9.9%.
In the second quarter, the market turned weak, consumer demand was weak, and the market's expectations for the baijiu sector were low. Coupled with the disturbance of Feiteng Moutai liquor prices in the second quarter, the market's sentiment towards food and beverage further declined in stages. On the capital side, a significant decline in baijiu positions can be observed. Since July, with the recovery of Moutai wine prices, the sector has shown a bottoming trend.
From the number of shares of food and beverage held by the fund, the overall holding of food and beverage in Q2 2024 decreased compared to Q1 2024. Funds significantly reduced their holdings of food and beverage companies in the second quarter. The market value of food and beverage holdings in Q2 2024 fell by 24.6% month-on-month from Q1 2024. The changing trends of the number of shares held by the fund and the market value held by the fund of most companies are the same, indicating that the reduction of food and beverage holdings by funds is a common behavior, and the reduction preference is basically the same.
Food and beverage dropped to two seats among the top ten heavy positions of the fund. In the second quarter of 2024, among the top ten heavy positions of the fund, food and beverage seats dropped to two seats: Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye Yibin. Compared with the top ten heavy positions of the fund in the first quarter of 2024, Luzhou Laojiao, Ping An Insurance, and Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals fell out of the top ten in the second quarter, and Tencent, Luxshare Precision, and China Yangtze Power were selected as new companies.
In the second quarter, the food and beverage sector adjusted on low volume. The second quarter is traditionally a low season for consumption. Consumption data indicators such as CPI and social and retail data did not perform well, and terminal demand was also running low.
For baijiu stocks, Galaxy Securities believes that both the warehousing risk and the valuation risk of the baijiu sector have been released. Under the dual trend of weak industry prosperity and increasing market concentration, coupled with the low risk appetite of the market, it is more inclined to trade after-the-fact performance rather than forward-looking performance. We are not pessimistic about the performance of the high-quality symbols.
For the food and beverage sector, KYY Securities' research report pointed out that the clear distinction between the peak and low seasons may be the normal state of the market in recent years. In the process of building commercial demands, more consumption is driven by residential demands, and residential demands have strong seasonal characteristics. The release of consumption in the low season is not strong. The second quarter performance is also within expectations. Subsequently, with the arrival of the consumption peak season, it is expected that industry demand will also marginally rebound. The current industry demand is still in a slow recovery process, but some positive factors are also emerging. From the external environment, the super-expected changes in real estate policies are promoting the overall economy to improve; from the sector itself, the channel order is relatively stable in the off-season, and companies are also adjusting their own strategies. The industry is accumulating momentum and preparing for the next peak season. The valuation of the sector has reached a historical low after the recent decline. At present, the differentiation within the sector has increased, and the leading enterprises can still maintain stable growth with brand and channel advantages, with strong performance certainty and sustainability. Moreover, most of the leading enterprises have the trend of increasing dividends. "Stable growth, low valuation, and multiple dividends" may become the common characteristics of the leading enterprises in the future. The current capital market is more inclined to thematic investment, the industry rotation is fast, and the duration is short, while the food and beverage sector is at the bottom of the fundamental situation, and the market's expectations are low. It is recommended to pay more attention and lay out at a low level.
