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英伟达波动性已超比特币!佩洛西出手押注,大摩强力唱好,后市将如何演绎?

Nvidia's volatility has surpassed that of bitcoin! Pelosi made a bet, and Goldman Sachs strongly recommended it. How will the future be interpreted?

Futu News ·  Aug 1 18:13

After Powell's "ultimate signal" of a rate cut in September and positive news from AMD's performance, the entire US market was ecstatic overnight.

After a sustained half-month adjustment, global semiconductor investors also welcomed a day of "boiling and rising". At the same time, Pelosi, known as the "Congress Hill Stock God", also revealed her husband Paul Pelosi's recent holding operation.

According to the disclosure, Paul bought 0.01 million shares on July 26th.$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Bought stocks with a trading value between 1 million and 5 million US dollars and sold 5000 Microsoft stocks with a trading value between 1 million and 5 million US dollars.

According to another disclosure a few weeks ago, Paul purchased 0.01 million shares of Nvidia stock at the end of June. This means that Pelosi has increased her position in Nvidia twice in just one month.

In fact, Pelosi has an amazing trading record on Nvidia. In November 2023, she made a very exciting options trading, buying 50 call options on Nvidia with a strike price of $120 and a maturity date of December 20, 2024. Since November 22 of last year, Nvidia's stock price has soared by 140%.

In addition to Pelosi's bet, Nvidia also received support from Morgan Stanley.

Despite Nvidia's underperformance over the past month, it still receives support from Wall Street banks.

Morgan Stanley is optimistic about Nvidia's long-term growth potential, and market concerns will weaken over time. Morgan Stanley has re-evaluated Nvidia stock as a "preferred stock" while maintaining a "shareholding" rating. The bank believes that Nvidia's data center business will continue to contribute to most of the company's growth in the next five years, especially in AI/ML hardware solution. With the launch and delivery of Blackwell super chips, Nvidia is expected to further consolidate its competitive position in the AI field.

Morgan Stanley believes that this round of sell-off may be a very good buying opportunity and sets Nvidia's target stock price at $144.00, which means there is about 23% upside from the current latest closing price.

In addition, according to Bloomberg data, Nvidia's volatility has even exceeded Bitcoin, with the implied volatility of Nvidia's 30-day options rising from 48% to 71% recently, while the Bitcoin DVOL index (an indicator of 30-day implied volatility) has dropped from 68% to 49%.

Faced with market concerns, tech giants still respond with "burning money" - these companies would rather overinvest than invest too little, because falling behind in the tech industry means "having nothing." Overall, the latest round of performance provides support for the AI boom, indicating that the prosperity of AI may not be waning, but may be accelerating.

Investors still need to be wary that Huang Renxun conducted several large-scale stock selling transactions in July, with a total amount exceeding $0.25 billion, which has caused concern about Nvidia itself on Wall Street.

Facing the market's concerns, tech giants unanimously state that they will firmly commit to "burning money." Meta released its second quarter financial report overnight, with revenues and profits exceeding expectations and capital expenditures for the quarter lower than expected. The upper limit of capital expenditures for the whole year has not changed, but the lower limit has been raised by $2 billion. At the same time, Meta emphasizes that capital expenditures will increase significantly in 2025, and infrastructure costs are an important driving factor. This will continue to support AI research and product development work. Similarly, Microsoft also firmly states that it will continue to increase investment in AI. In the second quarter, Microsoft's capital expenditures increased by 77.6% year-on-year to $19 billion, almost all of which was spent on AI-related expenditures. Its annual capital expenditures in the 2024 fiscal year exceeded $50 billion.

As for the issue of returns on investment in AI, tech giants gave detailed explanations in their conference calls, which quelled some investors' concerns. First, let's look at Microsoft. Its focus was on how AI has brought growth to Azure. Microsoft said its Azure AI cloud service customers had increased nearly 60% in the most recent quarter, and average customer spending had also increased. Microsoft also explained that the slowdown in Azure growth was partly due to a shortage of GPUs. It said that due to a shortage of AI GPU servers, the production capacity of its Azure AI service has been limited, and this situation will continue until the end of this year. This clearly shows that enterprise customers have a strong demand for AI. Secondly, Meta emphasized how AI has helped drive advertising growth. Zuckerberg said in a conference call that AI has improved recommendation functions, helped people find better content, and made advertising more effective. These products have now become scalable products. Meta's advertising revenue in the second quarter increased by 22%, which is twice as much as its competitor Google's increase.

Do you remain bullish on Nvidia?

Do you still have a bullish view on Nvidia?

Overall, the latest round of performance provides support for the AI boom, indicating that the prosperity of AI may not be waning, but may be accelerating.

Despite the above mentioned concerns, Wall Street banks still support Nvidia.

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Mooers,

Do you remain bullish on Nvidia?

Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section~

Editor/Somer

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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