业绩稳健增长 ，维持“增持”评级。公司2024H1实现营收、归母净利润、扣非归母净利润27.63 亿、6.29 亿、6.34 亿元，同比+15.13%、+15.46%、+16.27%；其中24Q2 实现营收、归母净利润、扣非归母净利润14.06 亿、3.64 亿、3.67 亿元，同比+15.09%、+14.61%、+16.02%，利润端增速略高于收入端，业绩整体呈稳健增长态势。考虑到公司限制性股票激励计划的相关费用、以及院内销售环境变化，调整2024-2026 年EPS 预测为1.21/1.50/1.87 元（原1.28/1.58/1.87元）。参照行业平均给予公司24 年PE 26 X，上调目标价至31.46 元（原29.53 元）。维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The anesthesia business maintained a rapid growth trend, the mental & neurological business rebounded steadily, and major new products such as oselidine fumarate entered the release cycle. Maintain an “Overweight” rating.
Key points of investment:
The performance grew steadily and maintained the “gain” rating. In 2024H1, the company achieved revenue, net profit after deducting net profit of 2.763 billion yuan, 0.629 billion yuan, 0.634 billion yuan, +15.13%, +15.46%, and +16.27% year-on-year; of these, 24Q2 achieved revenue, net profit to mother, net profit after deduction of 1.406 billion yuan, 0.364 billion yuan, 0.367 billion yuan, +15.02% year-on-year. The profit side growth rate was slightly higher than the revenue side, and overall performance showed a steady growth trend. Taking into account the costs associated with the company's restricted stock incentive plan and changes in the hospital sales environment, the 2024-2026 EPS forecast was adjusted to 1.21/1.50/1.87 yuan (originally 1.28/1.58/1.87 yuan). Referring to the industry average, the company was given a 24-year PE 26X, and the target price was raised to 31.46 yuan (originally 29.53 yuan). Maintain an “Overweight” rating.
The anesthesia business maintained a rapid growth trend, and the mental & neurological business rebounded steadily. 2024H1's anesthesia business revenue was 1.522 billion yuan, +20.04% over the same period, accounting for 55.09% of revenue; with relifentanil, sufentanil, oxycodone, and alfentanyl being released one after another, the company's anesthesia business is expected to maintain a rapid growth trend; furthermore, from July 2024, midazolam injections will be adjusted from Class II psychotropic drugs to Class I psychotropic drugs. The market pattern is expected to stabilize and the company's leading domestic position is expected to be maintained for a long time. The company's 2024H1 psychotropic and neurological products achieved revenue of 0.595 billion yuan and 0.08 billion yuan respectively, +8.17% and +8.51% over the same period. As the impact of collection cleared up, it achieved a steady recovery.
The cost ratio declined during the period, and the operating cash flow situation was good. 2024H1's sales expense ratio and management expense ratio were 30.03% and 4.16%, respectively. The year-on-year ratio was -2.58 pcts and +0.22 pcts. Expenses were well controlled, and the overall cost rate declined during the period. 2024H1's net operating cash flow was 0.622 billion yuan, +39.51% year over year, and the cash flow situation improved.
R&D investment has increased, and new products have entered the release cycle. 2024H1 invested 0.319 billion yuan in R&D, +13.03% year-on-year, and major new products entered the harvest period one after another. The release of oxelidine fumarate is expected to continue to accelerate after it is included in medical insurance; the company reached a cooperation agreement with TEVA in February '24, and according to the cooperation agreement, it is expected to complete a total sales revenue of 2-2.5 billion yuan in 2024-2028, which is expected to further contribute to the increase in performance. The company continues to advance in the research pipeline. Currently, there are more than 20 innovative drug projects under development. Among them, NH600001 emulsion injection has entered phase III clinical stage.
Risk warning: risk of uncertainty in drug development; risk of policy changes.
