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上美股份(02145.HK):24H1预告高增长 关注多渠道&产品&品牌发展

Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145.HK): 24H1 forecasts high growth, focusing on multi-channel & product & brand development

德邦證券 ·  Jul 29

Key points of investment

Shangmei Co., Ltd. announced the 24H1 performance forecast, with high revenue and profit growth. The company issued a profit forecast: 24H1 achieved revenue of 3.4-3.6 billion, an increase of 114.3%-126.9%; net profit of 0.39-0.41 billion yuan, an increase of 286%-306%. We expect high revenue growth: 1) High GMV growth on the Douyin channel in '24, 618, achieved a 136% year-on-year increase in GMV on the Douyin channel, top1 on the beauty list, and top 1 in the beauty brand popularity list; GMV on the Tmall channel grew 141% year over year, and on the top 1 in the domestic product light list; JD and Pinduo GMV increased 175%/225%, respectively; 2) Second-tier brand one-page high year-on-year growth. The net profit margin of 24H1 (10.8%-12.1%) was lower than 23H2 (13.85%). We estimate that sales expenses will increase due to the company's increased investment in media advertising.

Against the backdrop of a rising base, Han Shu continued to grow at a high rate on the Douyin platform. (1) Douyin channel: According to Feigua data, Han Shu brand's 24H1 Douyin channel achieved GMV3.593 billion/ +262.41%, of which Q1/Q2 was 2.051 billion/1.542 billion yuan, an increase of 540%/130%, and 0.249 billion yuan/ +112% from July 1-27; 2) Channel structure: The share of commodity cards has increased to 9% over the past 24 years, and the share of broadcast has increased to nearly 50%. Han Shu's brand Douyin topped the top 1 in 23, and the brand trend continued for 24 years. The company focused on the Douyin platform, took the lead in capturing the dividends of skits to reach the market, improved the “broadcast+broadcast” matrix to undertake transformation, and the team's operation efficiency was high.

Future highlights: Multi-channel & multi-product lines & sub-brands. (1) Multi-channel - Tmall, return to offline: Douyin's potential or continued in 24 years; at the same time, as the crowds increased and brand power increased, the Tmall platform may benefit from the Douyin channel spillover; and in January 24, the Hanshu brand held a CS channel conference to return offline to improve profitability. The company's offline revenue in 2019 reached 1.314 billion, accounting for 45.7%, and has rich offline resources. (2) Multiple product series - Bai Man Waist has hit the market. The Red Man Waist series has taken the top sales list many times. At the same time, the package was split into a large single product model, and the product matrix was improved through the White Man Waist and Blue Man Waist series, and the white man waist single product SKU continued to rise in Douyin rankings, becoming the core item after the Hongman Waist series. It is expected that there is still plenty of room for the future cost performance trend and market to sink. (3) Multi-brand layout - Comprehensive layout of the three tracks: At the beginning of the year, the company proposed a “2+2+2” strategy to form 2 10 billion super brands for skincare, 2 powerful brands for mother and child care, and 2 major nursing superbrands to jointly expand the influence of the US in multiple categories, multiple tracks, multiple price bands, and multiple audiences; Han Shu and Yizi laid out care tracks, and had brands such as Jiufang/2032/632, etc.; the one-page brand grew in volume and entered multiple e-commerce platforms during the initial growth stage., offline cooperative CS channels and mother and child stores, second brand The growth mindset is clear.

Investment advice: Shanghai Shangmei is building a group organization. It is optimistic that e-commerce will continue to grow at a high rate in the short term. In the medium to long term, it is expected that it will continue to develop new brands in the beauty care industry, and begin a second growth with strong marketing strength and mature channel support. The company's 24-26 revenue was raised to 7.184 billion/9.109 billion/10.832 billion, net profit was 0.9 billion/1.166 billion/1.414 billion, and the corresponding PE was 15.2X/11.8X/9.7X, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.

Risk warning: Competition in the industry has intensified, Douyin traffic costs have increased, and sub-brand incubation has fallen short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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