煤炭业务：热值改善叠加高比例长协，综合售价同比小幅上涨。产销量方面，2024 年上半年，公司实现商品煤产量936 万吨，同比-4.8%，商品煤销量910 万吨，同比-10.2%，吨煤售价564 元/吨，同比+4.5%，吨煤成本339 元/吨，同比+2.7%，吨煤毛利225 元/吨，同比+7.4%。公司上半年吨煤毛利上涨，得益于售价的同比上涨，主要原因：1）长协比例高、市场价格影响小，2024 年公司长协煤占比维持在85%；2）煤质同比改善，公司2023 年三季度煤炭平均发热量回归至4400-4450 卡/克左右，预计2024 年以来维持该水位的热值。Incidents:
On July 31, 2024, Xinji Energy released its 2024 semi-annual report: in the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 5.99 billion yuan, -4.4% year on year, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies reached 1.18 billion yuan, -10.1% year on year, and basic earnings per share was 0.45 yuan, -10.0% year on year. The weighted average ROE was 8.42%, down 2.29 percentage points year over year. On a quarterly basis, revenue for the second quarter was 2.93 billion yuan, -4.3% month-on-month, -13.0% year-on-year, and net profit to mother reached 0.58 billion yuan, -3.3% month-on-month, and -19.0% year-on-year. There was little change in performance from month to month.
Investment highlights:
Coal business: Calorific value improvements compounded a high proportion of long-term cooperation, and comprehensive sales prices rose slightly year-on-year. In terms of production and sales volume, in the first half of 2024, the company achieved commercial coal production of 9.36 million tons, -4.8% year on year, commercial coal sales volume of 9.1 million tons, -10.2% year on year, sales price of 564 yuan/ton, +4.5% year on year, ton coal cost 339 yuan/ton, +2.7% year on year, and gross profit of 225 yuan/ton. The company's gross profit of tons of coal rose in the first half of the year, thanks to the year-on-year increase in sales prices. The main reasons: 1) the proportion of Changxie coal remained at 85% in 2024; 2) the coal quality improved year-on-year, and the average calorific value of the company's coal returned to around 4400-4450 cal/g in the third quarter of 2023, which is expected to maintain the calorific value of this water level since 2024.
On a quarterly basis, in the second quarter, the company achieved commercial coal production of 4.67 million tons, -0.6% month-on-month, -7.9%, commercial coal sales volume of 4.58 million tons, +1.2% month-on-month, -14.5% month-on-month, -3.7% month-on-month, +1.9% month-on-month, +1.9% year-on-month, gross profit per ton of coal of 332 yuan/ton, -4.3% year-on-year, and +6.9% year-on-year.
Taken together, the month-on-month decline in volume and price of the coal sector affected profits. In the second quarter, the sector achieved gross profit of 1.02 billion yuan, -1.6% month-on-month and -8.6% year-on-year.
Electricity business: The amount of electricity generated increased year over year. In the first half of 2024, power generation reached 4.61 billion kilowatt-hours, +12.4% year over year (base figure for the same period last year was low), and feed-in electricity reached 4.35 billion kilowatt-hours, +12.7% year over year. According to the 2023 annual report, with the expected commissioning of the second phase of the Panji Power Plant within the year, the planned power generation capacity will reach 11.5 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024, which is a steady increase from 10.4 billion kilowatt-hours of power generation in 2023.
Construction of all power plants under construction has begun, and the integrated coal and electricity layout has been further improved. As of April 2024, the company holds two low calorific value power plants with an installed capacity of 7.984 million kilowatts (phase 1 x 2 million kilowatts), Shangrao power plant (2 x 1 million kilowatts), Chuzhou power plant (2 x 0.66 million kilowatts), and wholly owned two low calorific value power plants, Xinji 1 Power Plant and Xinji 2 Power Plant, with an installed capacity of 7.984 million kilowatts. million kW), installed capacity 1.29 million kW, total equity installed capacity 5.6301 million kW. As of June 2024, the company has started construction of all power plants under construction. Among them, the Shangrao Power Plant, Chuzhou Power Plant and Lu'an Power Plant began construction in March, March and June 2024, respectively. Assuming that in the future, with the exception of a small amount of external coal used for the Shangrao power plant, all other power plants will use their own coal after completion, we expect that the company's self-supply rate of coal may exceed 90% (by the end of June 2024, the self-supply rate is 40%), and the degree of upstream and downstream integration will continue to deepen, which will further guarantee stable profits.
Profit forecast and investment rating: We forecast that the company's 2024-2026 revenue will be 13.535/14.794/17.204 billion yuan, up 5%/9%/16% year on year, and net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.323/2.525/3.035 billion yuan respectively, up 10%/9%/20% year on year, equivalent to EPS of 0.90/0.97/1.17 yuan/share, respectively. The current stock price corresponding to PE is 9.5/8.7/7.3 times, respectively. Considering that the company's share of coal is high and there is little fluctuation in performance, coal quality may gradually return to normal levels. At the same time, the degree of upstream and downstream integration of power assets will deepen after production. At the same time as performance increases, stability will further improve, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of a sharp drop in coal market prices; risk of production safety accidents; risk of coal mine production progress falling short of expectations; risk of thermal power plant commissioning falling short of expectations; risk of policy regulation exceeding expectations.