维持“增持”评 级。公司2024 年上半年实现营收59.85亿元（-4.4%）、归母净利11.76 亿元（-10.11%），符合市场预期。其中Q2 实现营业收入29.27 亿元（-12.99％）、归母净利5.78 亿元（-19.03％）。我们维持公司24-26 年EPS 预测0.91/0.99/1.07 元。根据可比公司2024年平均12x PE 估值，上调目标价至10.92 元（+1.06 元）。Introduction to this report:
The performance was in line with expectations. Q2 Electricity is under slight pressure, coal is improving stability, and coal-electricity integration continues to develop.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. The company achieved revenue of 5.985 billion yuan (-4.4%) and net profit to mother of 1.176 billion yuan (-10.11%) in the first half of 2024, in line with market expectations. Among them, Q2 achieved operating income of 2.927 billion yuan (-12.99%) and net profit of 0.578 billion yuan (-19.03%) to mother. We maintain the company's 24-26 EPS forecast of 0.91/0.99/1.07 yuan. According to the comparable company's 2024 average 12x PE valuation, the target price was raised to 10.92 yuan (+1.06 yuan).
Changxie accounts for a high share to improve coal price stability. In the second quarter of 2024, the company produced 4.66 million tons (-8%) of commercial coal; sold 4.58 million tons (-15%) of commercial coal. Coal achieved revenue of 2.53 billion (-13%); gross profit from coal sales was 1.01 billion yuan (-8.6%). The price of Q2 tons of coal was 553 yuan/ton, +10 yuan/ton year over year, and -21 yuan/ton month over month. The company's share of high long-term cooperation (85%) makes the company's coal prices more stable, while better cost-side control keeps gross profit per ton at a good level. The average price of coal in Q3 is expected to remain flat at 860 yuan/ton, and Q3 ton profits are expected to increase year-on-year.
Q2 Electricity is slightly suppressed. The company's electricity generation in the first half of the year was 4.61 billion kilowatt-hours (+12.41%), feed-in electricity was 4.353 billion kilowatt-hours (+12.66%), and the average feed-in tariff was 0.4115 (+1.28%).
Among them, the 2024Q2 company's electricity generation capacity was 2.28 billion kilowatt-hours (-5.9%); the feed-in electricity capacity was 1.89 billion kilowatt-hours (-8.6%), and the average online electricity price was 0.4135 yuan/kilowatt-hour (+0.9%). The company's electricity generation and feed-in electricity volume declined year-on-year in the second quarter. We judge that it was mainly a sharp increase in hydropower in May-June, which suppressed part of the demand for thermal power.
The integration of coal and electricity continues to develop. Currently, the company holds the Lixin Power Plant Phase I (2*1000MW) and the Xuancheng Power Plant Phase I Phase II (1*660MW) and the participating Xuancheng Power Plant Phase I Phase II (1*630MW) have been put into operation to prepare for the construction of Shangrao Power Plant (2*1000MW), Chuzhou Power Plant (2*660MW), and Lu'an Power Plant (2*660MW). The advantages of integrated coal and electricity have been fully exploited. With the commencement and construction of the Panji coal mine and subsequent power projects, the company's coal production capacity and installed electricity capacity will gradually increase, further improving the company's profitability and resilience to risks.
Risk warning: Coal prices fell beyond expectations; the increase in the company's coal calorific value fell short of expectations.