FUTU Morning Post

Morning briefing from Futu: Powell's dovish comments pave the way for a rate cut in September; US stocks skyrocketed overnight, with Nvidia rising over 12% in one night.

热点要闻

鲍威尔发布会“放鸽”：若满足条件，最早可能会在9月降息

美东时间周三，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，决策者更接近降息了，若满足条件，最早可能会在9月会议上降息。美联储周三保持利率不变，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在5.25%至5.5%，符合市场预期。自去年9月以来，美联储已连续八次会议按兵不动。

美国财政部维持季度长债发行规模不变，重申未来几个季度不增发

7月31日周三，美国财政部连续第二次维持季度长期债券发行量不变，并维持其指引，即预计在几个季度内不需要增加相关债券的发行量。美国财政部在最新的一份声明中表示，将于下周在所谓的季度再融资拍卖中发行1250亿美元的证券，期限涵盖3年、10年和30年。交易商们普遍预测了这一结果，认为财政部能够通过更多的短期票据拍卖弥补这段时期的任何资金短缺。

美联储释放降息信号，美股、美债、原油、黄金、日元走高，市场降息预期升温

美东时间周三，美联储公布7月利率决议后，并表示出美联储9月可能降息的信号，主要资产表现震荡，美股、美债、原油、黄金、日元走高，美元下挫。交易员们认为，美联储今年会降息70个基点，此前预计降息空间为64个基点。

行长放鹰叠加当局确认干预：日元汇率反弹至4个月最高水平

7月31日中午，日本央行宣布再次加息，将原本0至0.1%的短期利率提高至0.25%。同时敲定了一项方针，到2026年第一季度，把国债购买规模从当前的每月6万亿日元缩减至3万亿日元。美元兑日元一度走低至149.63，创3月19日以来的最低水平，跌幅最高达310点或1.9%，现小幅反弹至149.991。

美股复盘

三大指数齐涨，纳指大涨超2.5%，英伟达大涨超12%

美东时间周三，美股市场高开高走，三大指数集体上涨，标普500指数涨超1.5%，纳指涨逾2.5%，双双创下自2月以来最佳单日表现。

截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.24%，报40,842.79点；标普500指数涨1.58%，报5,522.30点；纳斯达克指数涨2.64%，报17,599.40点。

大型科技股全线上涨，但微软逆市跌1.08%，英伟达涨12.81%，特斯拉涨4.24%，亚马逊涨2.90%，Meta涨2.51%，苹果涨1.50%，谷歌涨0.73%。

热门中概股普涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.78%，理想汽车涨5.11%，拼多多涨4.65%，爱奇艺涨3.10%，腾讯音乐涨2.01%，哔哩哔哩涨1.54%，小鹏汽车涨1.51%，阿里巴巴涨1.09%。

盘后大涨近7%！Meta二季报和下季指引超预期，没再增加全年资本支出上限

$Meta Platforms (META.US)$第二财季营收390.7亿美元，分析师预期383.4亿美元；第二财季每股收益5.16美元，分析师预期4.72美元；预计第三财季营收385亿美元至410亿美元，分析师预期391.6亿美元；当季资本支出小于预期，预计全年资本支出370亿美元至400亿美元。

截至发稿，Meta盘后涨近7%。

盘后跌近13%，Arm第一财季总营收高于预期，但全年营收展望令人失望

$Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$第一财季总营收9.39亿美元，分析师预期9.05亿美元；第一财季调整后每股收益0.40美元，分析师预期0.34美元；受到部分市场疲软影响，年度销售指引保持不变，预计第二财季营收7.8亿-8.3亿美元，分析师预期8.06亿美元；维持全年营收预期在38.0亿-41.0亿美元不变，分析师预期40亿美元。

截至发稿，Arm盘后跌近13%。

盘后跌超1%，高通发布强劲的第四财季营收展望，但预计今年智能手机需求“稍微趋平”

$高通 (QCOM.US)$第三财季调整后营收93.9亿美元，分析师预期92.1亿美元；第三财季调整后每股收益2.33美元，分析师预期2.24美元；预计第四财季营收95亿-103亿美元，分析师预期97亿美元。财报发布后高通还称，智能手机市场今年将“稍微趋平”。

高通盘后一度涨超6%，截至发稿，转跌至超1%。

优步宣布引入10万辆比亚迪电动车，还要合作部署“自动驾驶汽车”

美股上市公司、全球出行平台$优步 (UBER.US)$周三发布公告称，公司与中国电动车龙头比亚迪签署战略合作协议，将10万辆比亚迪电动车引入全球主要市场。此外，令投资市场颇为在意的是，优步和比亚迪也在公告中宣布，两家公司还会合作，未来将“具有自动驾驶能力”的比亚迪汽车部署到优步平台，将自动驾驶技术大规模带给全球受众。优步收涨超2%。

美股成交额TOP20

港市前瞻

北水大幅加仓腾讯超21亿港元，甩卖汇丰超4亿港元

7月31日（周三），南下资金净买入港股22.91亿港元。

$腾讯控股 (00700.HK)$、$中国银行 (03988.HK)$、$美团-W (03690.HK)$分别获净买入21.44亿港元、5.74亿港元、5.39亿港元；

$盈富基金 (02800.HK)$、$南方恒生科技 (03033.HK)$、$汇丰控股 (00005.HK)$分别遭净卖出17.24亿港元、10.53亿港元、4.31亿港元。

8月01日周四

关键词：中国7月财新制造业PMI、欧元区7月制造业PMI终值、苹果、亚马逊、英特尔财报

周四，经济数据方面，中国将公布7月财新制造业PMI；欧元区将公布7月制造业PMI终值；美国将公布至7月27日当周初请失业金人数、7月ISM制造业PMI等一系列重磅数据。

财报方面，$苹果 (AAPL.US)$、$亚马逊 (AMZN.US)$、$英特尔 (INTC.US)$、$Coinbase (COIN.US)$、$MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$、$Marathon Digital (MARA.US)$将于美股盘后发布业绩。

新股方面，$Majestic Ideal (MJID.US)$将于今日上市。

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牛牛晨读：

一个人一生能积累多少钱，不是取决于他能够赚多少钱，而是取决于他如何投资理财，人找钱不如钱找钱，要知道让钱为你工作，而不是你为钱工作。
——巴菲特

编辑/ping

Hot news

Powell's press conference was dovish: if conditions are met, the earliest possible rate cut could come in September.

On Wednesday EST, Fed Chair Powell said that decision-makers are closer to cutting interest rates, and if conditions are met, the earliest possible rate cut could come at the September meeting. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, maintaining the federal fund rate target range at 5.25% to 5.5%, in line with market expectations. Since September last year, the Fed has kept its policy rates on hold for eight consecutive meetings.

The U.S. Treasury maintains the same quarterly long-term debt issuance size and reiterates no increase in the coming quarters.

On Wednesday, July 31, for the second consecutive time, the US Treasury kept the quarterly long-term bond issuance unchanged and maintained the guideline that no increase in the issuance of related bonds would be necessary in the coming quarters. The US Treasury issued $12.5 billion in securities in the so-called quarterly refinancing auction next week, including three-year, 10-year, and 30-year maturities. Traders widely anticipated the outcome and believed the Treasury would rely more on short-term bill auctions to fill any cash shortfall during the period.

The Fed signals rate cuts, the US stock market, bonds, crude oil, gold, and the Japanese yen all rise as expectations of rate cuts increase.

On Wednesday EST, after announcing the July rate decision, the Fed signaled that it may cut rates in September, causing major assets to fluctuate. US stocks, bonds, crude oil, gold, and the Japanese yen rose, while the dollar fell. Traders believe the Fed will cut rates by 70 basis points this year, up from the previous estimate of 64 basis points.

The governor hawks plus the authorities confirm intervention: the yen exchange rate rebounds to the highest level in four months.

On July 31 at noon, the Bank of Japan announced another rate hike, raising short-term rates from 0 to 0.1% to 0.25%. They also confirmed another guideline that the purchase of government bonds would be reduced from the current monthly rate of 6 trillion yen to 3 trillion yen by the first quarter of 2026. The dollar against the yen briefly fell to 149.63, the lowest level since March 19, down as much as 310 points or 1.9%, and is now slightly rebounding to 149.991.

Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.

The three major indices all rose, with the Nasdaq up more than 2.5% and Nvidia up more than 12%.

On Wednesday EST, the US stock market opened high and went up. The three major indices rose collectively, with the S&P 500 up more than 1.5% and the Nasdaq up more than 2.5%, both achieving their best single-day performances since February.

At the close, the Dow Jones index rose 0.24% to 40,842.79 points, the S&P 500 index rose 1.58% to 5,522.30 points, and the Nasdaq index rose 2.64% to 17,599.40 points.

Large-cap technology stocks rose across the board, but Microsoft fell 1.08%. Nvidia rose 12.81%, Tesla rose 4.24%, Amazon rose 2.90%, Meta rose 2.51%, Apple rose 1.50%, and Google rose 0.73%.

Popular China concept stocks rose across the board, with the Nasdaq China Dragon Index up 0.78%, Li Auto up 5.11%, Pinduoduo up 4.65%, iQiyi up 3.10%, Tencent Music up 2.01%, Bilibili up 1.54%, Xpeng up 1.51%, and Alibaba up 1.09%.

After-hours trading rose nearly 7%! Meta's Q2 report and next quarter's guidance exceeded expectations, and did not increase the annual capital expenditure limit.

$Meta Platforms (META.US)$Second-quarter revenue was $39.07 billion, higher than analysts' expectations of $38.34 billion; second-quarter EPS was $5.16, higher than analysts' expectations of $4.72; estimated third-quarter revenue is $38.5 billion to $41 billion, while analysts' consensus is $39.16 billion; capital expenditures for the quarter were lower than expected, with estimated full-year capital expenditures between $37 billion and $40 billion.

As of press time, Meta rose nearly 7% after hours.

After hours, it fell nearly 13%. Arm's first-quarter total revenue was higher than expected, but the full-year revenue outlook was disappointing.

$Arm Holdings (ARM.US)$First-quarter revenue was $0.939 billion, while analysts' consensus was $0.905 billion; first-quarter adjusted EPS was $0.40, while analysts' consensus was $0.34. Affected by sluggish markets, the annual sales guidance remains unchanged, and estimated second-quarter revenue is $0.78 billion to $0.83 billion, while analysts' consensus is $0.806 billion; the full-year revenue guidance remains unchanged at $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion, while analysts' consensus is $4 billion.

As of press time, Arm fell nearly 13% after hours.

After-hours, it fell more than 1%. Qualcomm released a strong fourth-quarter revenue outlook, but expects smart phone demand to stabilize slightly this year.

$Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$Adjusted revenue for the third quarter was $9.39 billion, Analysts had expected $9.21 billion; adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter were $2.33, Analysts had expected $2.24; expected revenue for the fourth quarter is $9.5 billion to $10.3 billion, Analysts had expected $9.7 billion. After the financial report was released, Qualcomm also stated that the smartphone market will "tend to be stable" this year.

Qualcomm rose more than 6% after the market, and fell more than 1% as of press time.

Uber announced plans to introduce 100,000 BYD electric vehicles and cooperate to deploy "autonomous driving cars".

US-listed company, global travel platform.$Uber Technologies (UBER.US)$On Wednesday, it announced that the company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with BYD, China's leading electric vehicle company, to introduce 100,000 BYD electric vehicles into major markets worldwide. In addition, what the investment market is also concerned about is that Uber and BYD also announced in the announcement that the two companies will also cooperate to deploy BYD cars with "autonomous driving capabilities" onto the Uber platform, bringing autonomous driving technology to global audiences on a large scale. Uber's share price rose more than 2%.

If you want to play this game, you must believe in yourself and your judgment.

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

Northbound funds significantly increased their holdings of Tencent by over HKD 2.1 billion and sold HSBC by over HKD 0.4 billion.

On July 31st (Wednesday), southbound funds net bought HKD 2.291 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

$TENCENT (00700.HK)$,$BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK)$,$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$Received net buy orders of HKD 2.144 billion, HKD 0.574 billion, and HKD 0.539 billion, respectively;

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index ETF (03033.HK)$,$HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$Received net sell orders of HKD 1.724 billion, HKD 1.053 billion, and HKD 0.431 billion, respectively.

Regarding financial events, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference.

Keywords: China's July Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone's July Manufacturing PMI Final Value, Apple, Amazon, Intel Financial Report.

On Thursday, as for economic data, China will release the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for July; the Eurozone will release the Manufacturing PMI Final Value for July; the United States will release a series of heavy-weight data including the initial jobless claims number for the week ending July 27th, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI for July.

Regarding financial reports,$Apple (AAPL.US)$,$Amazon (AMZN.US)$,$Intel (INTC.US)$,$Coinbase (COIN.US)$,$MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$,$Marathon Digital (MARA.US)$Financial results will be released in post-market trading.

Regarding IPOs,$Majestic Ideal (MJID.US)$Will be listed today.

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Futubull Morning News:

How much money a person can accumulate in his lifetime depends not on how much money he can earn, but on how he invests and manages his finances. It's better to let money work for you than to work for money.
- Buffett

Editor/ping

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.