Core views:

The 24Q2 performance recovery was significant. According to the performance forecast released by the company on July 29, in the first half of '24, the company achieved revenue of about 94.7 million yuan, +2.22%, net profit to mother of about 12.4 million yuan, +18.16% year over year, after deducting 1.3 million yuan from non-return mother, +90.39% year on year; looking at 24Q2 alone, the company achieved revenue of about 71.44 million yuan, +76% year over month, +207% month-on-month, net profit to mother of 23.57 million yuan, month-on-month reverse loss (24Q1 approximately- 11.17 million yuan, 23Q2 about 4.68 million yuan), with a year-on-month loss of 15.55 million yuan (24Q1 about -14.25 million yuan, 23Q2 about -4.12 million yuan). The equipment entered the inspection period, and the performance recovered significantly.

China's spent fuel processing capacity is scarce, and the increase in processing capacity is certain, and the company is expected to benefit. According to the company's prospectus, at present, China's spent fuel processing capacity is only 50 tons/year. China's spent fuel reprocessing demonstration plant is still under construction, and treatment capacity is very scarce. It is expected that future spent fuel reprocessing plants will continue to be built, and the company will benefit significantly.

New energy, health and other fields continue to be deployed, and a new growth curve is gradually taking shape. According to the company's annual report for 23 years, in response to the demand for intelligent upgrades in the field of national defense and military industry, the company achieved military special robot AGV business expansion through the acquisition of Tianjin Jiazi. The special robot industry pioneered technological leadership, and has completed batch shipments in some scenarios and scientific research verification for some scenarios; in the field of new energy, the company plans and lays out an industrial chain related to the cutting-edge development direction of new energy sources.

Profit forecast and investment suggestions: We expect Jingye Intelligence's 2024-2026 EPS to be 0.82/1.44/2.13 yuan/share. Considering that the vast majority of the company's revenue comes from the nuclear power industry, which is the scarce nuclear power and spent fuel target company among listed companies, the company will usher in a stage of rapid revenue growth with the gradual advancement of spent fuel projects, and the company is rapidly entering the fields of nuclear medicine, military industry, etc., and a new growth curve has been formed. Therefore, we have given a PE valuation of 40 times in 24 years, corresponding to a reasonable value of 32.64 yuan/share, and maintain” “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: Risk of excessive business concentration and policy changes, risk of high customer concentration, risk of performance fluctuation due to discontinuous order acquisition, seasonal risk of performance.