Event: Shengnuo Biotech released its 2024 mid-year report. In 2024 H1, the company achieved revenue of 0.199 billion yuan (YoY +14.44%), net profit attributable to mother 0.022 billion yuan (YoY +8.14%), and net profit of non-attributable net profit of 0.019 billion yuan (YoY +106.55%). In Q2 2024, revenue of 0.095 billion yuan (YoY +2.78%), net profit attributable to mother was 0.005 billion yuan (-13.08% YoY), and net profit not attributable to mother was 0.004 billion yuan (+28.71% YoY).
Comment:
Due to collection, gross profit margin and sales expense ratio have all decreased, and R&D expenses have increased in stages. In terms of profit margin, 2024 H1 achieved a comprehensive gross profit margin of 59.58% (-5.28pp), a net profit margin of 10.95% (-0.64pp), a net interest rate of 9.61% (+4.29pp) after deducting non-return net profit, and a reduction in the price of collected products and lower comprehensive gross profit margin; the increase in operating income and reduced government subsidies led to an increase in net interest after deducting non-return mother. In terms of cost ratio, the cost rate for the 2024 H1 period was 46.99% (-7.47pp), of which the sales/management/R&D/finance ratio was 17.93% (-10.12pp)/15.32% (-2.35pp)/11.98% (+4.40pp)/1.76% (+0.60pp), respectively. After winning the bid for injectable somatostatin and injectable Atostatin in June 2023, the market business expenses decreased, which reduced the company's sales expense ratio; the increase in R&D expenses was 1) 12.5 million yuan was invested to cooperate with Zhejiang Dingchang Pharmaceutical to develop an injectable octreotide acetate microsphere project. The initial investment of 5 million yuan was all included in R&D expenses. 2) Simeglutide and salmon calcitonin entered the pilot phase, and the cost R&D investment for the KJMRT-YF001 (cyclic peptide-113) self-development project increased.
Self-developed products are growing at a high rate, and CDMO has declined. 2024H1, the company achieved revenue of 0.095 billion yuan (+48% year over year), gross profit margin of 63% (year-on-year -20.24pp), driving sales growth after winning the bid for injectable somatostatin and injectable atosiban; self-developed APIs achieved revenue of 0.057 billion yuan (+11% year over year), gross profit ratio 66% (+2.37pp), overseas API sales increased 97.51% year on year, driving sector growth; CDMO achieved revenue of 0.035 billion yuan (YoY- 10%), with a gross profit margin of 36% (+7.01pp), of which pharmaceutical research services achieved revenue of 0.024 billion yuan, pharmaceutical customized R&D and production achieved revenue of 0.01 billion yuan; contract processing services achieved revenue of 0.013 billion yuan (-30% YoY), and gross profit margin of 94% (YoY +1.90pp).
R&D drives development, and production capacity is about to be released. 2024 H1. Focusing on the strategic direction, the company continues to strengthen R&D investment. The fund-raising project “Engineering Technology Center Upgrade Project” has been successfully completed, and R&D capabilities have been further improved: as of July 30, 2024, the company's participation in R&D and R&D projects, estibatide injections, posaconazole injections, and eltivant injections have obtained registration approval; Ganerick injections have been declared for production; simeglutide raw materials have obtained US DMF registration, and linaclotide APIs have been submitted for marketing registration; Cetrorelix raw materials, posa Conazole APIs and bevibatide citrate APIs obtained approval notices for marketing applications; the injectable octreotide acetate microsphere project was completed. In terms of production capacity, the main construction of the “Polypeptide API Production Line Project with an Annual Output of 395 kg”, the “Formulation Industrialization Technology Transformation Project”, and the “Innovative Peptide Drug CDMO, API Industrialization Project” has been completed and has entered the equipment commissioning stage. We believe that continuous investment in R&D and capacity building will continue to build a competitive advantage for the company.
Profit forecast: We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 0.554/0.703/0.905 billion yuan, up 27.4%/26.8%/28.7% year on year; net profit to mother will be 0.101/0.12/0.141 billion yuan, respectively, up 43.3%/19.0%/17.2% year on year, corresponding to 2024-2026 PE 22.9/19.3/16.5 times.
Risk factors: Industry competition increases risk, risk of falling demand for R&D investment and outsourcing, policy risk, risk of R&D failure, financial risks such as unrecoverable accounts receivable, exchange rate fluctuations, etc., and macro-environmental risks.