Three points to watch in the afternoon session: Financial stocks are supporting the market despite the decline in high-tech stocks.

Fisco Japan · Jul 31 11:21

31日の後場の取引では以下の3つのポイントに注目したい。

・日経平均は反落、ハイテク株下落も金融株が下支え

・ドル・円は底堅い、日銀の政策発表待ち

・値下り寄与トップはソフトバンクG＜9984＞、同2位は東エレク＜8035＞

■日経平均は反落、ハイテク株下落も金融株が下支え

日経平均は反落。前日比156.41円安（－0.41％）の38369.54円（出来高概算8億1000万株）で前場の取引を終えている。

30日の米国株式市場はまちまち。ダウ平均は203.40ドル高（＋0.50％）の40743.33ドル、ナスダックは222.78ポイント安（－1.28％）の17147.42、S&P500は27.10ポイント安（－0.50％）の5436.44で取引を終了した。米連邦公開市場委員会（FOMC）の結果発表を控えた調整が続き、寄り付き後、まちまち。ダウは金融セクターが支援し、終日底堅く推移し終盤にかけ上げ幅を拡大した。一方、ナスダックはローテ―ションに加え、FOMCや主要ハイテク企業の決算を控えた警戒感にハイテクの手仕舞い売りが加速し、下落。まちまちで終了した。

ナスダック下落やエヌビディアが7％下落したことなどが影響して、東京市場はハイテク株中心に売り優勢で取引をスタートした。一部で日本銀行が開催されている金融政策決定会合で、政策金利を0－0.1％から0.25％に引き上げると報じられたことで、長期金利の指標となる10年物国債利回りが前日比0.06ポイント上昇の1.055％まで上昇。為替が1ドル152円台まで円高ドル安が加速したことも日本株の重しとなった。

日経平均採用銘柄では、第1四半期営業利益が二けた減益となったオリエンタルランド＜4661＞が大幅安となったほか、同社株の大株主の京成電鉄＜9009＞も売られた。また、村田製作所＜6981＞、ANAホールディングス＜9202＞も決算がネガティブ視されて下落。このほか、ソフトバンクG＜9984＞、エーザイ＜4523＞、日東電工＜6988＞、太陽誘電＜6976＞、トヨタ自＜7203＞、ソニーグループ＜6758＞が売り優勢となった。

一方、第1四半期大幅増益で市場予想を上回る着地となったTDK＜6762＞が買われたほか、金利上昇を受けて、三井住友トラストHD＜8309＞、三井住友＜8316＞、野村＜8604＞、みずほ＜8411＞、三菱UFJ＜8306＞、りそなHD＜8308＞など金融株が総じて上昇した。このほか、フジクラ＜5803＞、清水建設＜1803＞、ファナック＜6954＞が買われた。

業種別では、空運業、サービス業、輸送用機器、医薬品、精密機器などが下落した一方、銀行業、証券・商品先物取引業、パルプ・紙業、水産・農林業、倉庫・運輸関連業などが上昇した。

11時40分時点では、日銀の金融政策決定会合の結果は発表されていない。事前の報道通り、追加利上げ実施となった場合、多少、為替の円高ドル安及び株安が進む可能性はあるが、既に昨日の155円台から152円台まで円高ドル安が進行したことから一段の円高ドル安は回避されよう。同じく日経平均も既に38000円を割りこんだことから、株式市場への影響も限定的と考える。15時30分から開始される植田日銀総裁の記者会見で「低金利を継続する」といった話が出て段階的な利上げを打ち消した場合、日本株はナイトセッションで持ち直す可能性もあろう。記者会見にて、「脱デフレ」を意識するようなポジティブな利上げの流れが市場に伝われば、日本株買いの流れが強まると考える。

■ドル・円は底堅い、日銀の政策発表待ち

31日午前の東京市場でドル・円は底堅く推移。円買い先行で一時152円11銭まで下げたが、その後は日銀金融政策決定会合での政策発表を控え様子見ムードが広がった。仕掛け的な円売りに振れる場面もあったが、ドルはおおむね下げづらい値動きに。

ここまでの取引レンジは、ドル・円は152円11銭から153円28銭、ユーロ・円は164円59銭から165円92銭、ユーロ・ドルは1.0812ドルから1.0828ドル。

■後場のチェック銘柄

・Ｌｉｂｅｒａｗａｒｅ＜218A＞、ハイパー＜3054＞など、5銘柄がストップ高

※一時ストップ高（気配値）を含みます

・値下り寄与トップはソフトバンクG＜9984＞、同2位は東エレク＜8035＞

■経済指標・要人発言

【経済指標】

・日・6月鉱工業生産速報値：前月比-3.6％（予想：-4.5％、5月：+3.6％）

・中・7月製造業PMI：49.4（予想：49.4、6月：49.5）

・中・7月非製造業PMI：50.2（予想：50.3、6月：50.5）

・豪・4-6月期消費者物価指数：前年比+3.8％（予想：+3.8％、1-3月期：+3.6％）

・豪・6月消費者物価指数：前年比+3.8％（予想：+3.8％、5月：+4.0％）

・豪・6月小売売上高：前月比+0.5％（予想：+0.2％、5月：+0.6％）

【要人発言】

・報道

「日銀、追加利上げを実施するかどうかを検討。2％の物価安定目標達成に近づいているとの見方が高まる一方、物価高による個人消費の低迷を懸念する声もあり慎重に判断。政策金利を0.25％程度へ引き上げる案を検討」

＜国内＞

・日銀金融政策決定会合（最終日）

・15:30　植田日銀総裁会見

＜海外＞

・特になし

In the afternoon trading on the 31st, you should pay attention to the following three points.

- The Nikkei Average fell back, with high-tech stocks falling but financial stocks supporting.

- The dollar-yen rate is solid, waiting for the BOJ's policy announcement.

- SoftBank G <9984> contributed most to the price decline, and Tōden <8035> was the second.

- The Nikkei Average fell back, with high-tech stocks falling but financial stocks supporting.

The Nikkei Average fell. At the end of the morning session, it was 38,369.54 yen (volume estimate of 800 million 10 million shares), down by 156.41 yen (-0.41%) from the previous day.

The US stock market on the 30th was mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 40,743.33, up 203.40 points (+0.50%), while the Nasdaq closed at 17,147.42, down 222.78 points (-1.28%), and the S&P500 closed at 5,436.44, down 27.10 points (-0.50%). Adjustment continued as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) awaited the results, leading to mixed results after the opening. The Dow was supported by the financial sector and remained strong throughout the day, with gains expanding towards the end. On the other hand, the Nasdaq fell due to rotation and the cautious sentiment ahead of FOMC and major tech company earnings, accelerating selling of technology stocks and closing mixed.

The Tokyo market started with selling pressure on high-tech stocks due to the impact of the Nasdaq's decline and Nvidia's 7% decline. At the financial policy decision meeting of the Bank of Japan currently being held, it was reported that the policy interest rate would be raised from 0-0.1% to 0.25%, causing the benchmark 10-year government bond yield to rise 0.06 points to 1.055% from the previous day. The yen appreciated and the dollar declined to 152 yen, weighing on Japanese stocks. In Nikkei adopted stocks, Oriental Land <4661>, which saw a double-digit decline in first-quarter operating profit, became significantly cheaper, and its major shareholder Keisei Electric Railway <9009> was sold. In addition, Murata Manufacturing <6981>, ANA Holdings <9202> and others fell due to negative views on earnings. On the other hand, TDK <6762>, which had a significant increase in the first quarter and landed above market expectations, was bought, and financial stocks such as Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings <8309>, Sumitomo Mitsui <8316>, Nomura <8604>, Mizuho <8411>, Mitsubishi UFJ <8306>, and Resona Holdings <8308> rose across the board. In addition, Fujikura <5803>, Shimizu Construction <1803>, and Fanuc <6954> were bought.

Among the Nikkei adopted stocks, Oriental Land Co., Ltd. <4661>, whose operating profit for the first quarter decreased by two digits, became significantly cheaper, and Kesei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. <9009>, who is a major shareholder of the same company, was also sold. In addition, Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd. <6981> and ANA Holdings Inc. <9202> also fell as their earnings were viewed negatively. In addition, SoftBank Group Corp. <9984>, Eisai Co., Ltd. <4523>, Nichicon Corporation <6998>, TDK Corporation <6762>, Tokyo Electron Limited <8035>, and Sony Group Corporation <6758> were biased towards selling. On the other hand, TDK <6762>, which had a significant increase in the first quarter and landed above market expectations, was bought.

On the other hand, TDK Corporation <6762>, which had a significant increase in the first quarter and landed above market expectations, was bought, and financial stocks such as Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings <8309>, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. <8316>, Nomura Holdings, Inc. <8604>, Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. <8411>, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. <8306>, and Resona Holdings, Inc. <8308> rose across the board. In addition, Fujikura Ltd. <5803>, Shimizu Corporation <1803>, and Fanuc Corporation <6954> were bought.

In terms of industries, air transportation, services, transportation equipment, pharmaceuticals, precision instruments, etc. fell, while banking, securities and commodity futures trading, pulp and paper, fishery and agriculture, and warehousing and transportation-related industries rose.

As of 11:40 a.m., the results of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision meeting have not yet been announced. As reported in advance, if an additional rate hike is implemented, there is a possibility that the yen's appreciation against the dollar and a decline in stocks will accelerate somewhat, but further appreciation/depreciation of the yen is likely to be avoided as it has already progressed from the 155 yen level to the 152 yen level. In addition, considering that the Nikkei Average has already fallen below 38,000 yen, the impact on the stock market is also considered limited. If Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's press conference, which starts at 3:30 p.m., issues positive rate hike comments with a focus on "escaping deflation", it is expected that the flow of buying Japanese stocks will strengthen.

- The dollar-yen rate is solid, waiting for the BOJ's policy announcement.

The dollar-yen rate remained solid on the morning of the 31st in the Tokyo market. It fell to 152.11 yen at one point due to yen buying, but then the wait-and-see mood spread ahead of the Bank of Japan's financial policy meeting announcement. There were also moments of swinging to a yen-seller approach, but the dollar moved sluggishly with little downward movement.

The trading range so far is 152.11 yen to 153.28 yen for dollar-yen, 164.59 yen to 165.92 yen for euro-yen, and 1.0812 dollars to 1.0828 dollars for euro-dollar.

Check stocks for the afternoon session

- 5 stocks such as Libertewa <218A> and Hyper <3054> hit the limit high.

*Includes temporary stopper (indicated price)

- SoftBank G <9984> contributed most to the price decline, and Tōden <8035> was the second.

Economic indicators and remarks by important people

[Economic indicators]

- Japan's June Mining and Manufacturing Production Index Report: -3.6% month-on-month (forecast: -4.5%, May: +3.6%).

- China's July Manufacturing PMI: 49.4 (forecast: 49.4, June: 49.5).

- China's July non-Manufacturing PMI: 50.2 (forecast: 50.3, June: 50.5).

- Australia's April-June Consumer Price Index: +3.8% year-on-year (forecast: +3.8%, Q1: +3.6%).

- Australia's June Consumer Price Index: +3.8% year-on-year (forecast: +3.8%, May: +4.0%).

- Australia's June retail sales: +0.5% month-on-month (forecast: +0.2%, May: +0.6%).

[Important Person's Remarks]

- Report.

"The Bank of Japan is considering whether to implement an additional interest rate hike. While some believe that achieving the 2% price stability target is becoming closer, there are also concerns about the stagnation of personal consumption due to high prices. They are cautiously determining whether to raise the policy interest rate to around 0.25%."

Bank of Japan concludes its financial policy meeting.

- 3:30 pm: Mr. Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, will hold a press conference.

Not applicable.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

後場に注目すべき3つのポイント～ハイテク株下落も金融株が下支え

Three points to watch in the afternoon session: Financial stocks are supporting the market despite the decline in high-tech stocks.

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