核心品种稳步增长，我们看好麻醉类产品长期增长潜力。据公司公告，单季度来看，1Q/2Q24 收入分别同比增长15.2%/15.1%，归母净利润分别同比增长16.6%/14.6%。分板块来看，1H24 麻醉类收入15.22 亿元，同比增长20.04%；精神类收入5.95 亿元，同比增长8.17%；神经类收入8,000万元，同比增8.51%。麻醉类产品占总收入比例已达55.09%，同比增长2.25 个百分点，并贡献主要业绩增量，主系公司加强近年获批麻醉系列产品（瑞芬太尼、舒芬太尼、阿芬太尼、羟考酮以及TRV130 等）的市场持续推广，同时公司加大对县域医疗机构的覆盖力度，深度挖掘基层市场。此外，公司于2024 年2 月获Teva 安泰坦在中国大陆地区独家商业化权益，进一步丰富公司神经产品线，帮助神经产品管线重回正增长。1H24 results are in line with our expectations
The company announced 1H24 results: revenue of 2.763 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.13%; net profit to mother was 0.629 billion yuan, an increase of 15.46% year-on-year, and the performance was in line with our expectations.
Development trends
The core variety is growing steadily, and we are optimistic about the long-term growth potential of anesthetic products. According to the company's announcement, in a single quarter, 1Q/2Q24 revenue increased 15.2%/15.1% year on year, respectively, and net profit to mother increased 16.6%/14.6% year on year, respectively. By sector, 1H24 anesthesiology revenue was 1.522 billion yuan, up 20.04% year on year; psychiatric revenue was 0.595 billion yuan, up 8.17% year on year; neurological revenue was 80 million yuan, up 8.51% year on year. Anesthetic products accounted for 55.09% of total revenue, an increase of 2.25 percentage points over the previous year, and contributed to the main performance increase. The main company strengthened the continuous market promotion of anesthetic products (remifentanil, sufentanil, oxycodone, TRV130, etc.) approved in recent years. At the same time, the company increased its coverage of county medical institutions and dug deeper into the grass-roots market. Furthermore, in February 2024, the company obtained exclusive commercial interest in Teva Antitan in mainland China, further enriching the company's neurological product line and helping the neurological product pipeline return to positive growth.
R&D is progressing steadily, and the simulation R&D pipeline continues to be realized. According to the company announcement, 1H24 invested 0.319 billion yuan in R&D, an increase of 13.03% over the previous year. In terms of innovative drugs, the company currently has 20 research projects, including NH600001 emulsion injections (etomide upgraded products) in phase III clinical trials and 2 projects in clinical phase II (NHL35700 tablets, YH1910-Z02 injections). In addition, the company is expected to submit IND applications for 3 innovative products on 2H24. In terms of generic drugs and consistency evaluation, alfentanyl hydrochloride injection (5 ml: 2.5 mg), lacosamide injection, and pregabalin capsules were approved for marketing, and 9 generic drugs were declared for production in the review project; pentanediquil hydrochloride injection (1 ml: 0.5 mg) passed the consistency evaluation, and 4 others were under review. Looking at the pipeline layout, generic drugs and consistency evaluations are gradually being implemented, and innovative research products are expanding to the layout of refined narcotics control drugs. We believe it is expected to further enrich the company's pipeline layout in the future.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We remain unchanged in our 2024 and 2025 earnings forecasts. The current stock price corresponds to the 2024/2025 price-earnings ratio of 19.8/16.8 times. We maintain our outperforming industry rating and maintain a target price of 30.0 yuan (corresponding to 24.8/20.9 times the 2024/2025 price-earnings ratio), which has 24.9% upside compared to the current stock price.
risks
Drug collection price reduction risk; clinical progress falls short of expectations; product commercialization falls short of expectations.
