传统行业需求改善拉动下PLC 增长超预期。1H24 期间公司PLC/驱动/人机界面/智能装置分别实现营业收入3.1/3.7/0.9/0.2 亿元营业收入，同比增长25%/1%/2%/40%。根据MIR 数据，终端需求较为清淡，1H24 整体工业自动化市场同比下滑2.8%，OEM 市场同比下滑7.3%，小型PLC 市场同比下滑3.9%，但分结构来看，纺织、食品饮料、包装等消费链行业仍然实现正增长，考虑到信捷下游整体以传统行业为主，因此也表现出较好的PLC增长态势，增速远超行业。根据MIR 数据，2Q24 期间信捷市占率约为8.2%，同比提升2.1ppt，位列国产第二，仅次于汇川技术。1H24 results higher than market expectations
The company announced 1H24 results: the company achieved revenue of 8.0 yuan, YoY +11%; net profit to mother 0.13 billion yuan, YoY +22%, after deducting non-net profit of 0.11 billion yuan, YoY +31%. Among them, 2Q24's revenue was about 0.46 billion yuan, YoY +17%, net profit to mother 0.082 billion yuan, YoY +30%, after deducting non-net profit of 0.075 billion yuan, YoY +35%. Due to the improved sales volume of the company's 2Q24 small PLC with high gross margin, the company's gross margin increased year-on-year, which in turn led to an increase in net profit margin, and overall performance exceeded market expectations.
Development trends
PLC growth exceeded expectations, driven by improved demand in traditional industries. During the 1H24 period, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.1/0.37/0.09/0.02 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 25%/1%/2%/40%. According to MIR data, demand for terminals is relatively light. The 1H24 overall industrial automation market fell 2.8% year on year, the OEM market fell 7.3% year on year, and the small PLC market fell 3.9% year on year. However, in terms of structure, consumer chain industries such as textiles, food and beverage, and packaging still achieved positive growth. Considering that the overall downstream of Xinjie is dominated by traditional industries, it also shows a good PLC growth trend, which far exceeds the industry. According to MIR data, during the 2Q24 period, Xinjie's market share was about 8.2%, up 2.1ppt from the previous year, ranking second in China, after Huichuan Technology.
Gross margin has increased steadily, leading to an improvement in overall profitability. The gross margin of the company's small PLC/drive system/man-machine interface/intelligent device during the 1H24 period was 56.7%/24.3%/33.0%/38.1%, respectively. Among them, the gross margin of the small PLC/drive system improved by 1.7ppt and 2~3ppt year-on-year. We believe that the improvement in the company's gross margin is due, on the one hand, to the year-on-year decline in the price of key components, and on the other hand, to the increase in the company's product self-control rate.
The cost ratio is still expanding, and the company is still adopting an active R&D and marketing strategy. The company continues to strengthen sales network construction and product research and development such as inverters/servo/PLC. Therefore, during the 2Q24 period, the company's sales/management/R&D expenses rate was about 9.4%/4.4%/8.9%, an increase of 1.6/0.1/0.9ppt over the previous year.
The company's actual controller subscribed to a fixed increase quota, demonstrating the company's confidence in development. Li Xin, the controlling shareholder and actual controller of the company, fully subscribed for this fixed increase of 0.5 billion yuan. Before the issuance, the actual controller Li Xin's holding ratio was about 23.1%, and the holding ratio is expected to rise to 33.2% of the total share capital after issuance.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We maintain the net profit forecast of 0.24/0.29 billion yuan in 2024/25. The current stock price is trading at a price-earnings ratio of 17.2/14.1x in 2024/25, maintaining an outperforming industry rating and a target price of 40 yuan, which corresponds to a price-earnings ratio of 23.7x/19.5x in 2024/25. Compared with the current stock price, there is still room for increase of 37.6%.
risks
Downstream demand falls short of expectations, industry competition intensifies, and upstream raw material prices fluctuate.
