Key points of investment
Incident: The company launched the world's first hybrid mining excavator in June, leading the electrification process of large-scale mining excavators.
The electrification layout was early, and electric loaders were the most sold in 2023. Since 2018, the company has fully developed partial electrification of construction machinery and is in a leading position in the industry. In 2023, the sales volume of the company's various pure electric construction machinery products reached 9.3 billion yuan. Among them, the sales volume of new energy loaders is number one in the industry, with a market share of 23.8%; the electric excavators XE215E and XE270E have achieved mass sales and are widely used in Sichuan-Tibet Railway, mines, low-emission ports, tunnel construction and other scenarios; the electric aerial work platform has covered the 4-45 meter series of main models, with a market share of 35% for boom elevators; and built a mature hybrid technology platform for cranes, leading the world in product dynamics and economy.
Provide diversified customer service, shorten the payback cycle and reduce operating costs. The company develops diversified and flexible customer service (a new “three-motor” power system framework was designed for a coal mine customer, and the vehicle purchase cost can be recovered in 7,500h while improving work efficiency), laying a solid customer base. Second, the company provides a complete set of new energy solutions for each customer's operating scenarios, unify product energy replenishment methods, reduce investment in individual equipment infrastructure, facilitate fleet management, and greatly reduce unit operating costs.
The product is strong, and various technical paths such as hybrid/pure electric/hydrogen fuel cells have been laid out. The company's products are strong, and electrified products have significant advantages under extreme operating conditions. In high-altitude and mining scenarios, due to low air density, fuel is not fully burned, internal combustion engine power is reduced by an average of 10% and fuel consumption is increased by 6%, and work efficiency and economy are significantly reduced. The company's electrified products are resistant to high cold and high humidity, can still guarantee high stability and provide strong core competitiveness under extreme operating conditions. In terms of technical reserves, the company has laid out various technology paths such as hybrid/pure electric/hydrogen fuel cells to meet the needs of various scenarios.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Recently, the market sentiment is pessimistic about the export chain, but the company's exposure to North America is low, and the overall impact is limited. In the medium to long term, the company has outstanding advantages in the fields of mining machinery and electrified machinery, and there is plenty of room for growth. We expect the company's net profit for 24-26 to be 6.7/8.8/11.7 billion yuan. The current market value corresponds to PE12x/9x/7x. The valuation is at the bottom, and the recommendation is to focus on maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Downstream investment falls short of expectations; industry cycle fluctuations; international trade disputes; breakthroughs in electrification technology fall short of expectations.