occurrences
On July 29, 2024, the company announced the 2024 employee stock ownership plan (draft), and the performance target was significantly improved.
profiling
Publish employee stock ownership plans to maintain the company's competitiveness. The company's 2024 employee stock ownership plan aims to increase the work enthusiasm and loyalty of core employees, and at the same time establish a long-term remuneration and incentive system for core talents, combining employee benefits with the company's long-term performance. The participants in the employee stock ownership plan are company supervisors, senior management personnel, core management personnel and other core key personnel, etc., with a total number of no more than 122 people. The source of the shares is that the company's special repurchase account has repurchased the company's A shares of common stock. The total number of shares is no more than 3,068,966 shares, accounting for 0.31% of the company's current total share capital. The transfer price is 50% of the average repurchase price of 22.83 yuan/share, or 11.42 yuan/share. Employee stock ownership plans are expected to attract and retain core talents, motivate employees, and maintain the company's competitiveness.
Raise performance growth targets and demonstrate confidence in future development. The current employee stock ownership plan assessment year is the three fiscal years 2024-2026. Target values are set according to the growth rate or cumulative growth rate of net profit to mother in the assessment year compared to 2023. If any of the indicators reaches the set value, the company-level attributable ratio is 100%. Among them, in terms of growth rate, the target net profit growth rate for 2024 is 50%, the growth rate for 2025 is 103%, and the growth rate for 2026 is set at 153%; in terms of cumulative growth rate, the net profit growth rate target for 2024 is 50%, the growth rate for 2025 is set at 252%, and the growth rate for 2026 is 506%. According to estimates, the corresponding net profit targets for 2024-2026 were 1.56 billion yuan, 2.1 billion yuan, and 2.6 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 50%, 35%, and 25%, respectively, showing the company's confidence in future development.
The China-Mongolia and China-Africa markets will continue to break through, and the business volume will increase dramatically. In the China-Mongolia market, the company signed a long-term coal cooperation agreement with MMC, agreeing to purchase 17.5 million tons of coal within ten years to guarantee the stable supply of coal from the supply side. The “resource+trade+logistics” business model is in a virtuous cycle, and the business volume is expected to grow dramatically. In the African market, the company plans to continue to expand its fleet size after acquiring BHL, the largest truck transport company in Zambia. At the same time, after the Sakania project in Zambia is put into operation, traffic volume is expected to increase further, driving corresponding revenue growth.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
The company's 2024-2026 net profit forecast was raised to 1.58 billion yuan, 2.13 billion yuan, and 2.65 billion yuan (originally 1.45 billion yuan, 1.65 billion yuan, 1.86 billion yuan), maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
The construction of the African Highway project fell short of expectations; the risk of railway construction in Mongolia exceeding expectations; the risk of the government increasing investment in port resources; geopolitical risk; risk of shareholder reduction; and exchange risk.