Brief performance review
On July 29, 2024, the company released its 24 annual report: 1) In the first half of '24, the company achieved revenue of 0.92 billion yuan, an increase of 37.96% over the previous year. Achieved net profit of 0.152 billion yuan to mother, an increase of 134.85% year over year. Achieved net profit of 0.146 billion yuan after deduction, an increase of 170.12% over the previous year. The comprehensive gross profit margin was 43.2%, and recent operating conditions exceeded market expectations. 2) In the second quarter of a single quarter, the company achieved revenue of 0.533 billion yuan, an increase of 52.78% over the previous year. Net profit to mother was 0.098 billion yuan, an increase of 191.87% year over year. Achieved net profit of 0.098 billion yuan after deduction, a year-on-year increase of 242.78%.
Management analysis
New categories are rapidly released, and new customers and new business expansion drive increased revenue. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 0.92 billion yuan, an increase of 37.96% over the previous year. According to product categories, chip products achieved revenue of 0.381 billion yuan, accounting for 41.4%, and a gross profit margin of 49.0%.
The module and development kit achieved revenue of 0.532 billion yuan, accounting for 57.8%, and a gross profit margin of 38.9%.
We attribute the company's performance growth to the following points: 1) The global semiconductor market is gradually recovering, and downstream demand is picking up at the same time: WSTS predicted in June that the global semiconductor market size will increase 16% year on year in 24. Combined with smart homes and consumer electronics, the degree of intelligence continues to increase, and other industries such as industrial control have begun intelligent transformation, leading to an increase in demand for various SoCs.
2) The company's product line expanded, and the second new material number began to be released: in September '23, the company's chip shipments exceeded 1 billion units, and ESP-S3/C2/C3 in the second new product gradually began to relay classic products such as ESP32/8266/S2 to become the main distribution force. At the same time, the company continued to lay out more new products such as P4, H4, and C5 in the two dimensions of connection+processing. 3) Strengthen software and hardware collaboration: Through complete and rich software solutions, we quickly help customers achieve product intelligence and shorten the development cycle. ESP RainMaker has formed a complete AIoT platform, implementing a one-stop product service strategy for hardware, software applications, and the cloud.
R&D investment is gradually showing results, and the scale effect brings profit elasticity. The company's R&D expenses in the first half of the year were 0.219 billion yuan, an increase of 22.7% over the previous year. When the company's revenue growth rate is higher than the growth rate of R&D expenses, we see that the scale effect brings more profit flexibility to the company. The company's comprehensive gross profit margin in the first half of '24 was 43.2%, +2.35pct year-on-year, due to multiple factors such as low raw material prices, increased chip share in shipments, introduction of new customers, and improved competitive landscape.
Profit forecasting
We expect revenue for 24-26 to be 2.04 billion yuan, 2.526 billion yuan, and 3,073 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother of 0.339 billion yuan, 0.457 billion yuan, and 0.586 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding EPS is 3.02 yuan, 4.07 yuan, and 5.22 yuan respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Downstream demand falls short of expectations; market competition intensifies; risk of exchange rate fluctuations; risk of controlling shareholders' holdings being reduced.