Middlesex Water Company (NASDAQ:MSEX) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 26% share price jump in the last month. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 18% in the last twelve months.

After such a large jump in price, Middlesex Water may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 32.5x, since almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 18x and even P/E's lower than 10x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

It looks like earnings growth has deserted Middlesex Water recently, which is not something to boast about. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the benign earnings growth will improve to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Middlesex Water's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, we see that there was hardly any earnings per share growth to speak of for the company over the past year. Whilst it's an improvement, it wasn't enough to get the company out of the hole it was in, with earnings down 5.5% overall from three years ago. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 13% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that Middlesex Water is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Middlesex Water's P/E?

The strong share price surge has got Middlesex Water's P/E rushing to great heights as well. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Middlesex Water currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Middlesex Water (of which 1 is significant!) you should know about.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Middlesex Water. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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