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美股前瞻 | 三大股指期货齐涨，加密货币概念盘前狂欢；“新美联储通讯社”发声：美联储本周或释放9月降息信号

Preview of US stocks: three equity index futures rose together, with a pre-market frenzy of cryptos concept; 'New Fed Communication Agency' speaks out: Fed may signal a rate cut in September this week.

Futu News ·  Jul 29 20:20

Hot news

  • Before the market opens on Monday, equity index futures rose together.

  • Most of the growth tech stocks rose in pre-market trading, with Tesla up nearly 2%, Microsoft, Google and Meta up over 1%.

  • $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$The performance of the four tech giants will be crucial as they are on the verge of a pullback. Whether they can avoid this hurdle or not will depend on the performance of the four companies with a total market capitalization of nearly 10 trillion USD. Investors will mainly focus on Tuesday's company performance and the upcoming financial reports in the following days. Analysts say, 'If it doesn't exceed expectations, it can be explained as AI not delivering the expected returns to the market.'

Analysts said, 'If performance fails to exceed expectations, it can be attributed to artificial intelligence not generating returns in the manner the market expected.'$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$The performance of companies and upcoming financial reports over the next few days will be the main focus.$Meta Platforms (META.US)$,$Apple (AAPL.US)$And.$Amazon (AMZN.US)$Gurman: Apple Intelligence's main AI features may be delayed until October. Bloomberg Technology correspondent Mark Gurman revealed that the company plans to delay most of its Apple Intelligence AI features until iOS/iPadOS18.1, and the related formal version will be available to the public as early as October this year. Gurman also revealed that Apple's new release strategy means that the iPhone 16 series may be launched without Apple Intelligence features and that these devices will need to obtain related AI functionality through software updates later this year.

  • Gurman: Apple Intelligence's main AI features may be delayed until October.

According to Mark Gurman, a Bloomberg technology reporter, the company plans to delay most of its Apple Intelligence AI features until iOS/iPadOS 18.1, with the earliest official version to be released to the public this October. Gurman also revealed that Apple's new release strategy means that the iPhone 16 series may be launched without Apple Intelligence features, and these devices will need to receive relevant AI features through software updates later this year.$Apple (AAPL.US)$Jefferies expects that after completing the dual primary listing on August 24, there is a potential opportunity to be included in the 'Hong Kong Stock Connect' on September 24, which is expected to have a positive impact on the stock price. It maintains a 'buy' rating on Alibaba's US stock with a target price of $116.

  • Tesla rose 2% in pre-market trading.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Tesla has replaced Ford as Morgan Stanley's top pick for US auto manufacturers, with a 2% rise in pre-market trading. Morgan Stanley believes that electric vehicles will dominate in the next few years and believes that Tesla is one of the most competitive and innovative companies in the field. This move marks the loss of Ford's position in investors' eyes as a traditional fuel automaker.

  • Alibaba rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading, listed in Hong Kong rose nearly 5%, and institutions said it is expected to be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect in September.

Jefferies expects that after completing its dual primary listing on August 24, there is a potential opportunity to be included in the 'Hong Kong Stock Connect' on September 24, which is expected to have a positive impact on the stock's performance. It maintains a 'buy' rating on Alibaba's US stocks, with a target price of $116.$Alibaba (BABA.US)$After completing its double listing on August 24th, there is a potential opportunity for inclusion in the "Hong Kong Stock Connect" on September 24th, which is expected to have a positive impact on the stock price. Maintaining a "buy" rating on Alibaba's stock with a target price of $116.

  • Taiwan Semiconductor rose nearly 1% in pre-market trading, and Morgan Stanley continues to be bullish on high growth.

Morgan Stanley's report pointed out that the recent adjustment of Asian tech stocks is similar to the mid-term adjustments in August to September 2023 and April 2024, and believes that AI hardware spending will continue to grow in the next one to two years. After the significant adjustments in the past few days, investors can re-focus on high-growth shares, including Taiwan Semiconductor.$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$etc.

  • Philips' Q2 net income skyrocketed fivefold, and strong demand in North America drove a 9% surge in orders. It rose nearly 11% in pre-market trading.

$Royal Philips (PHG.US)$After announcing its second-quarter results, sales were 4.46 billion euros, with market expectations at 4.49 billion euros, and comparable order volumes achieved a significant increase of 9%; adjusted pre-tax profits were 0.495 billion euros, with market expectations at 0.4263 billion euros; and net income surged 5.1 times from the previous year to 0.452 billion euros, with an earnings per share of 0.48 euros, higher than the same period last year's 0.07 euros.

  • AstraZeneca rose more than 2% before the market, and achieved good results in the treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

$AstraZeneca (AZN.US)$It is favourable that its drug Calquence is used to treat chronic lymphocytic leukemia. The company stated that Calquence, in conjunction with venetoclax, has shown statistically significant and clinically important improvements in progression-free survival for untreated adult patients in the Amplify Phase III trial with or without obinutuzumab.

  • Daiwa Securities reaffirms "buy" rating on New Oriental, and estimates that Dong Yuhui's departure will have a negative impact on profits of about 5% to 7%. Daiwa's research report pointed out that Dong Yuhui's departure is estimated to cause a decline in revenue by 2% to 4% for the fiscal year 2025, and a negative impact on profits of about 5% to 7%, which is within the manageable range as there is operating leverage in its core business to offset the above impact. In addition, with the decline in the profitability of New Oriental from live e-commerce, the market will see New Oriental's profits coming from its core educational business. The bank reiterated its "buy" rating on New Oriental.

According to Daiwa's research report, Dong Yuhui is expected to leave.$New Oriental (EDU.US)$Most polls in the past week have shown that Harris and Trump are evenly matched, laying the foundation for the November election. Harris' campaign team said Sunday that within a week of her becoming the Democratic Party's presidential nominee, they had raised $200 million and recruited 1.7 million new volunteers, after raising $81 million on the first day Biden dropped out. Harris has already received enough delegates to make it likely that she will become the Democratic nominee. The Democratic National Convention will be held in Chicago from August 19-22.

  • Jikeyue rose more than 2% before the market, and the official image of Jikeyue MIX was updated, which is expected to be listed in the second half of this year.

$ZEEKR (ZK.US)$Auto Video announced the latest official image of Jikeyue MIX, a pure electric MPV, on July 26. The official revealed in April that the new car is expected to be launched in the second half of this year.

  • Super financial report is coming! Microsoft certainly buys call options worth millions before the results.

Super earnings week is coming!$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$,$Meta Platforms (META.US)$,$Amazon (AMZN.US)$,$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$,$Apple (AAPL.US)$This week, the latest earnings reports were successively disclosed. Among them, Microsoft, Meta, and AMD all saw a slight increase in call options compared to the previous trading day. Looking closer, Microsoft's options contracts had a trading volume of 0.44 million, of which the highest trading volume of 430-dollar call option, which is set to expire on September 20, sold 0.011 million.

In addition, in recent large-scale transactions, Microsoft which was the first to release its earnings report this week, had three super buying call transactions, with the highest total investment of 35 million US dollars. The call contracts include an expiration date of October 18, 435 and 440-dollar exercise price calls, as well as a major buying call of September 20 with a 430-dollar exercise price, all with high buying volumes.

Related recommendations: Daily options tracking| Super financial report week is coming! Microsoft pre-announcement revealed millions of dollars in call options; Cryptos are the 'hot cake,' with mining company MARA seeing call options increasing to nearly 80%.

Global macro

  • The suspense of the election is back! Harris raised 0.2 billion US dollars in the first week of taking over, and her approval rating is equivalent to Trump's.

Most polls over the past week have shown that Harris and Trump are evenly matched, laying the foundation for the November election. Harris' campaign team said Sunday that within a week of her becoming the Democratic Party's presidential nominee, they had raised $200 million and recruited 1.7 million new volunteers, after raising $81 million on the first day Biden dropped out. Harris has already received enough delegates to make it likely that she will become the Democratic nominee. The Democratic National Convention will be held in Chicago from August 19-22.

  • "New American Federal Reserve Communication Agency" says: Federal Reserve may release a signal to cut interest rates in September this week.

The Fed will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday morning Beijing time. Nick Timiraos, a well-known financial journalist known as the "new Fed News Agency," said in his latest article, "A Rate Cut Is Coming to the Fed," that the Fed is unlikely to adjust rates at its policy meeting in July, but may hint at a rate cut in September. He believes that the Fed's recent preparations for interest rate cuts reflect three factors: improvement in inflation, signs of cooling in the labor market, and changes in the consideration of allowing inflation to remain at high levels and causing unnecessary economic weakness.

  • Worried about a recession! Some traders are betting on a 50 basis-point rate cut by the Fed in September.

As U.S. Treasuries rose for a third consecutive month, speculation about whether the Fed will cut rates sharply has been rampant. Some traders are doubling down and betting that the Fed will make a one-time 50 basis-point cut in September. The market has fully digested predictions that the Fed will cut rates by at least 25 basis points twice this year. Although the 50 basis-point bet is not mainstream, analysts say it reflects concerns about a recession. Currently, the U.S. bond yield curve is steeply steepening, and the market is closely watching the Fed's rate decision and press conference on Wednesday.

  • Trump: If elected, will fire the SEC chairman! Wants to make USA the capital of cryptos.

Trump said last Saturday that he would fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and hire regulators who support cryptocurrencies if elected president. Gensler's term is due to expire in 2026. Trump said at the 2024 conference in Nashville, "This afternoon I'm developing a plan to make the United States the global capital of cryptocurrencies and the world's superpower of Bitcoin. We will achieve this goal."$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$Latest survey: Gold is the best "Trump trade", and the dollar is losing out. Although the form of the "one-sided" situation has eased with Harris joining the presidential election this year, investors are still quite concerned about the "Trump trade". According to the latest MLIV survey, if Trump wins the election again, gold is the best investment choice. It is reported that among the 480 respondents, twice as many people support gold as a hedge tool in the event of Trump's re-election as those who support the dollar. The survey was conducted from July 22nd to 26th and included portfolio managers, economists, and retail investors.

  • The latest survey shows that gold is the best "Trump Trade", and the dollar is losing out. Although the form of the "one-sided" situation has eased with Harris joining the presidential election this year, investors are still quite concerned about the "Trump trade". According to the latest MLIV survey, if Trump wins the election again, gold is the best investment choice. It is reported that among the 480 respondents, twice as many people support gold as a hedge tool in the event of Trump's re-election as those who support the dollar. The survey was conducted from July 22nd to 26th and included portfolio managers, economists and retail investors.

In most polls over the past week, Harris and Trump have been found to be evenly matched, laying the foundation for November's election. Harris' campaign team said on Sunday that within a week of her becoming the Democratic Party's presidential nominee, they had raised $200 million and recruited 1.7 million new volunteers, after raising $81 million on the first day Biden dropped out. Harris has already received enough delegates to make it likely that she will become the Democratic nominee. The Democratic National Convention will be held in Chicago from August 19-22.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

22:30 Beijing Time: Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for July.

Editor/Emily

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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