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One-picture preview | Amazon's performance is coming! AWS business focuses on growth rate, Prime Day may bring new impetus to retail business

Futu News · 17:45

$亚马逊 (AMZN.US)$将于美东时间8月1日周四美股盘后公布业绩。机构普遍预期，亚马逊Q2将实现营收1485.95亿美元，同比增长10.58%；每股收益1.02美元，同比增长57.63%。

今年亚马逊股价整体呈现震荡往上的态势，并于7月8日盘中触及201.2美元的历史新高。然而，随着7月下旬宏观不利因素增加，亚马逊股价自高点回调约8%，年内累计涨幅缩窄至20%。

展望本次季度业绩，投资者将主要聚焦于零售业务和AWS业务的具体情况。此外，投资者也将关注亚马逊的现金储备是否会用于提升资本回报。

Prime Day或给亚马逊零售业务带来新动力

尽管AWS是亚马逊最赚钱的部门，但零售业务仍然是公司销售的主要贡献者。根据彭博社的数据，2023年亚马逊的在线商店收入占公司总收入的40.3%，而24.4%的收入来自向在亚马逊网站上列出商品的第三方卖家提供的佣金和其他服务。

亚马逊最近的收入预测较为疲软，反映出市场对电子商务业务的谨慎态度，尤其是在零售数据不尽如人意的情况下。然而，人们乐观地认为，Prime Day将缓解这些担忧，亚马逊新推出的AI购物助手将为公司带来更多动力。

摩根大通分析师Doug Anmuth表示：“Prime Day将在零售日历较为清淡的时段推动消费者提前开始返校/大学购物，其财务利益远远超出了为期两天的活动期。”他强调，这将为亚马逊的广告业务和会员趋势带来正面影响。

摩根大通预计，此次活动的总商品交易额(GMV)将达到124亿美元，同比增长12%，总零售净销售额将达到79亿美元。据估计，其中58亿美元是亚马逊在没有Prime Day的情况下无法创造的收入。

正是由于这样的增长速度和在电子商务领域不断扩大的市场份额，摩根大通上个月预测亚马逊将在今年超越沃尔玛，成为美国最大的零售商。

在财报公布后的电话会议期间，交易员可能会寻找有关亚马逊Prime Day活动的预期财务影响的消息，这些消息或将包含在第三季度的业绩指引当中。

AWS业务重点关注增长率

亚马逊的AWS业务将继续成为投资者关注的焦点，该业务是亚马逊的主要利润驱动力。2023年，AWS占亚马逊370亿美元运营利润（Operating Income）当中的三分之二，同时占到公司总收入的16%。

亚马逊是目前最大的企业云服务提供商，但微软Azure和谷歌云平台等竞争对手正竞相增加人工智能产品，以获得更多的市场份额。因此，亚马逊Q2业绩当中，AWS的增长率将受到投资者的密切关注。

据彭博预期，亚马逊AWS业务2024年Q2收入为259.75亿美元，同比增长17.32%。摩根士丹利认为，亚马逊的AWS营收至少需要同比增长18%，才能显示出一定的增长势头，并在投资者心目中树立起AWS的生成式人工智能定位、以及其在大量资本支出投资期间实现高速增长的能力。

与此同时，亚马逊AWS业务迎来了一位新的主管，Matt Garman在6月3日正式接任AWS首席执行官。

在接任AWS首席执行官后，Garman将面临一系列挑战和机遇。首先，他需要在AI时代继续保持AWS在云计算领域的领先地位。随着人工智能技术的快速发展，云计算已成为AI应用的重要基础设施。Garman需要领导AWS不断创新，以满足客户对高性能、可靠和安全的AI服务的需求。

其次，Garman需要应对AWS在过去两年遇到的困难。由于企业在疫情期间的支出增加后开始削减技术开支，云部门的增长速度降至历史新低。

此外，AWS在新一代AI服务的商业化方面也落后于竞争对手，如微软和谷歌。

为了迎头赶上，AWS已经采取了一系列措施，包括向Anthropic投资数十亿美元，开发自己的工具以与ChatGPT竞争，并与其他公司合作通过其服务器支持AI服务。

不断增长的现金储备为增加股东回报创造条件

2023年，亚马逊产生了322亿美元的自由现金流，现金储备超过了860亿美元；而根据彭博社汇编的数据，分析师预计2024年亚马逊的自由现金流将增长至612亿美元，现金储备将超过1000亿美元。这对于亚马逊而言，与其他大型公司一样，为向股东派息提供了前所未有的有利条件。

虽然亚马逊可能不一定会在公布Q2业绩时宣布这一消息，但包含Ami Asset Management投资经理Andrew Zamfotis在内的许多分析师认为，派息将在未来的几个季度发生。

该公司的一位发言人指出，在上个季度的电话会上，首席财务官Brian Olsavsky表示亚马逊将继续优先考虑资本支出和偿还债务，而非资本回报。但随着今年自由现金流预计将增长近一倍，许多投资者认为亚马逊可以开始为股东做更多的事情。增加回购是其中一个途径，但也有部分人猜测亚马逊将首次派发股息，尤其是其他的科技巨头最近也这样做了。

历次财报日股价如何表现？

根据Market Chameleon，回测过去12个季度业绩日，亚马逊在业绩发布当天上涨和下跌概率相等，均为50%，股价平均变动为±7.7%，最大跌幅为-14.0%，最大涨幅为+13.5%。

当前，亚马逊的隐含变动为±7.8%，表明期权市场押注其绩后单日涨跌幅达7.8%；对比来看，亚马逊前4季度的绩后平均股价变动为±6.3%，显示该股当前期权价值被高估。

从期权波动率偏度来看，市场情绪对亚马逊看跌。

点击预约：亚马逊2024Q2业绩直播（即时传译）

编辑/Jeffy

$Amazon (AMZN.US)$US stock results will be announced after the market on Thursday, August 1, EST. Agencies generally expect Amazon to achieve revenue of 148.595 billion US dollars in Q2, up 10.58% year on year; earnings per share of 1.02 US dollars, up 57.63% year on year.

This year, Amazon's overall stock price showed a volatile upward trend and hit a record high of 201.2 dollars in the intraday session on July 8. However, as macro adverse factors increased in late July, Amazon's stock price retraced about 8% from its high point, and the cumulative increase during the year narrowed to 20%.

Looking ahead to this quarter's results, investors will focus mainly on the specific situation of the retail business and AWS business. Additionally, investors will also be concerned about whether Amazon's cash reserves will be used to enhance return on capital.

Prime Day may bring new impetus to Amazon's retail business

Although AWS is Amazon's most profitable division, the retail business is still a major contributor to the company's sales. According to Bloomberg, Amazon's online store revenue in 2023 accounted for 40.3% of the company's total revenue, while 24.4% of revenue came from commissions and other services provided to third-party sellers listing products on the Amazon site.

Amazon's recent revenue forecast is weak, reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards e-commerce businesses, especially when retail data is unsatisfactory. However, people are optimistic that Prime Day will ease these concerns, and Amazon's new AI shopping assistant will give the company more momentum.

Doug Anmuth, an analyst at J.P. Morgan Chase, said, “Prime Day will push consumers to return to school/college shopping early during periods when the retail calendar is less clear, and the financial benefits far exceed the two-day event period.” He emphasized that this will have a positive impact on Amazon's advertising business and membership trends.

J.P. Morgan predicts that the total commodity transaction volume (GMV) for this event will reach $12.4 billion, an increase of 12% year over year, and total net retail sales will reach 7.9 billion US dollars. It is estimated that $5.8 billion of this is revenue that Amazon would not have been able to generate without Prime Day.

Precisely because of this growth rate and growing market share in the e-commerce sector, J.P. Morgan last month predicted that Amazon would surpass Walmart this year and become the largest retailer in the US.

During the conference call after the announcement of the earnings report, traders may seek information on the expected financial impact of Amazon's Prime Day activities, which may be included in the third quarter results guidance.

AWS business focuses on growth rate

Amazon's AWS business, which is Amazon's main profit driver, will continue to be the focus of investors' attention. In 2023, AWS accounted for two-thirds of Amazon's $37 billion operating income (operating income), while accounting for 16% of the company's total revenue.

Amazon is currently the largest enterprise cloud service provider, but competitors such as Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud Platform are competing to increase artificial intelligence products to gain more market share. Therefore, in Amazon's Q2 performance, the growth rate of AWS will receive close attention from investors.

According to Bloomberg's forecast, Amazon's AWS business revenue for Q2 2024 was 25.975 billion US dollars, an increase of 17.32% over the previous year. Morgan Stanley believes that Amazon's AWS revenue needs to increase at least 18% year over year to show a certain growth momentum and establish AWS's generative artificial intelligence position in the minds of investors and its ability to achieve rapid growth during a period of large capital expenditure investments.

Meanwhile, Amazon's AWS business welcomed a new head, and Matt Garman officially took over as AWS CEO on June 3.

After taking over as CEO of AWS, Garman will face a series of challenges and opportunities. First, he needs to continue to maintain AWS's leading position in the cloud computing field in the AI era. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, cloud computing has become an important infrastructure for AI applications. Garman needs to lead AWS's continuous innovation to meet customer needs for high-performance, reliable, and secure AI services.

Second, Garman needed to deal with the difficulties AWS has experienced over the past two years. The growth rate of the cloud sector fell to a record low as companies began cutting technology spending after spending increased during the pandemic.

In addition, AWS also lags behind competitors such as Microsoft and Google in commercializing next-generation AI services.

To catch up, AWS has taken a range of steps, including investing billions of dollars in Anthropic, developing its own tools to compete with ChatGPT, and partnering with other companies to support AI services through its servers.

Growing cash reserves create conditions for increased shareholder returns

In 2023, Amazon generated 32.2 billion US dollars of free cash flow, and cash reserves exceeded 86 billion US dollars; according to data compiled by Bloomberg, analysts expect Amazon's free cash flow to grow to 61.2 billion US dollars in 2024, and cash reserves will exceed 100 billion US dollars. For Amazon, like other large companies, this provides unprecedented favorable conditions for dividends to shareholders.

Although Amazon may not necessarily announce this news when announcing Q2 results, many analysts, including Ami Asset Management investment manager Andrew Zamfotis, believe that dividends will occur in the next few quarters.

A company spokesperson pointed out that during last quarter's conference call, Chief Financial Officer Brian Olsavsky said Amazon will continue to prioritize capital expenditure and debt repayment over capital return. But as free cash flow is expected to nearly double this year, many investors think Amazon can start doing more for shareholders. Increasing repurchases is one way, but there are also speculations that Amazon will pay dividends for the first time, especially as other tech giants have recently done the same.

How did the stock price perform on previous earnings days?

According to Market Chameleon, after backtesting the past 12 quarterly results days, the probability of Amazon rising and falling on the day of the results release was equal, at 50%. The average change in stock price was ± 7.7%, the maximum decline was -14.0%, and the maximum increase was +13.5%.

Currently, Amazon's implied change is ± 7.8%, indicating that the options market's single-day rise and fall rate after betting on its performance reached 7.8%; in comparison, Amazon's average post-performance stock price change in the first 4 quarters was ± 6.3%, indicating that the current option value of the stock is overvalued.

Judging from the bias in the volatility of options, market sentiment is bearish on Amazon.

Click to make an appointment:Amazon 2024Q2 results live broadcast (simultaneous interpretation)

Editor/Jeffy

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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