Guolian Securities: Pre-promotion of e-commerce led to a slowdown in the growth rate of express delivery in June, and the limited increase in prices during the peak season.

由于今年“618”大促电商平台取消预售，发货周期延长，部分件量前置到5月，6月快递件量增速环比5月下降6.1pct。

智通财经APP获悉，国联证券发布研报称，由于今年“618”大促电商平台取消预售，发货周期延长，部分件量前置到5月，6月快递件量增速环比5月下降6.1pct。6月份，电商快递品牌件量保持高增速，顺丰/圆通/韵达/申通分别完成业务量11.08/22.02/20.23/19.65亿件，同比增速分别为8.95%/22.85%/27.96%/29.00%。单价方面，6月行业平均单票价格环比5月上升0.11元，较23年同期环比涨幅缩窄，旺季提价幅度有限。此外，6月行业集中度环比提升，头部快递市场份额整体保持稳定。

国联证券主要观点如下：

业务量：受618发货前置影响，件量增速回落

6月，社零增速环比小幅回落。6月社零总额为4.07万亿元，同比增长2.0%，增速环比5月下降1.7pct。由于今年“618”大促电商平台取消预售，发货周期延长，部分件量前置到5月，6月快递件量增速环比5月下降6.1pct。6月份，电商快递品牌件量保持高增速，顺丰/圆通/韵达/申通分别完成业务量11.08/22.02/20.23/19.65亿件，同比增速分别为8.95%/22.85%/27.96%/29.00%。

单票价格：旺季提价幅度有限，快递经营策略分化

6月行业平均单票价格环比5月上升0.11元，较23年同期环比涨幅缩窄。6月行业单票价格为7.95元，较2023年同期下降13.06%，剔除国家邮政局数据口径调整影响后同比降幅为7.73%，降幅环比5月扩大1.11pct，局部地区出现价格波动，行业仍处于温和竞争状态。6月，顺丰/圆通/韵达/申通单票价格分别为15.77/2.25/2.00/2.01元，同比降幅分别为3.96%/4.85%/13.79%/9.05%。

行业格局：集中度环比提升，头部快递格局稳定

6月，快递服务品牌集中度指数环比提升。6月份，品牌集中度指数CR8为85.3，环比5月提升0.1。头部快递市场份额整体保持稳定，顺丰/圆通/韵达/申通市占率分别为7.60%/15.11%/13.88%/13.49%，剔除国家邮政局数据口径调整影响后同比变动-0.61/0.64/1.11/1.18pct。

投资建议：建议关注细分行业盈利能力稳健的龙头标的

伴随行业件量增速预期上修，价格竞争整体可控，预计2024年快递板块盈利能力相对2023年显著修复。推荐龙头地位稳固、盈利能力领先的中通快递(02057)，份额提升、网络稳定性与成本优势并存的圆通速递(600233.SH)；建议关注业务量增速修复、产能利用率提升下有望释放业绩弹性的韵达股份(002120.SZ)，以及产能扩张期业务量保持高增、降本增效能力提升的申通快递(002468.SZ)。

风险提示：宏观经济复苏不及预期；快递行业价格竞争超预期。

Due to the cancellation of pre-sales on e-commerce platforms during this year's “618” promotion and the extension of delivery cycles, some of the shipments were pushed forward to May, resulting in a 6.1% MoM decrease in express delivery volume in June compared to May.

Zhixin Finance APP learned that Guolian Securities released a research report stating that due to the cancellation of pre-sales on e-commerce platforms during this year's “618” promotion and the extension of delivery cycles, some of the shipments were pushed forward to May, resulting in a 6.1% MoM decrease in express delivery volume in June compared to May. In June, the volume of e-commerce express brands maintained high growth rates, with Shunfeng, YTO, Yunda, and STO completing business volumes of 1.108/0.2202/0.2023/1.965 billion pieces respectively, with YoY growth rates of 8.95%, 22.85%, 27.96%, and 29.00%. As for unit price, the average unit price of the industry in June increased by 0.11 yuan MoM, with a narrower MoM increase compared to the same period in 2023. The seasonal price increase was limited. In addition, the concentration of the industry in June increased MoM, and the overall market share of top express delivery brands remained stable.

Guolian Securities' main points are as follows:

Business volume: Impacted by the pre-shipping of orders before the “618” promotion and the shipment cycle extension, the growth rate of shipments has slowed down.

In June, the growth rate of social retail sales fell slightly MoM. The total social retail sales in June were 4.07 trillion yuan, a YoY growth rate of 2.0% and a MoM decrease of 1.7%. Due to the cancellation of pre-sales on e-commerce platforms during this year's “618” promotion and the extension of delivery cycles, some of the shipments were pushed forward to May, resulting in a 6.1% MoM decrease in express delivery volume in June compared to May. In June, the volume of e-commerce express brands maintained high growth rates, with Shunfeng, YTO, Yunda, and STO completing business volumes of 1.108/0.2202/0.2023/1.965 billion pieces respectively, with YoY growth rates of 8.95%, 22.85%, 27.96%, and 29.00%.

Unit price: Limited seasonal price increase, divergence in express delivery strategies.

In June, the average unit price of the industry increased by 0.11 yuan MoM, with a narrower MoM increase compared to the same period in 2023. The average unit price of the industry in June was 7.95 yuan, a YoY decrease of 13.06% compared with the same period in 2023, and a YoY decrease of 7.73% after excluding the impact of the data caliber adjustment by the National Post Office. The MoM decrease expanded by 1.11pct, with price fluctuations appearing in some areas. The industry is still in a state of mild competition. In June, the average unit prices of Shunfeng, YTO, Yunda, and STO were 15.77/2.25/2.00/2.01 yuan respectively, with YoY decreases of 3.96%, 4.85%, 13.79%, and 9.05%.

Industry pattern: Concentration ratio increased MoM, stable top express delivery pattern.

In June, the express delivery service brand concentration index increased MoM. In June, the brand concentration index CR8 was 85.3, an increase of 0.1 compared to May. The overall market share of top express delivery brands remained stable, with market share percentages of Shunfeng, YTO, Yunda, and STO being 7.60%, 15.11%, 13.88%, and 13.49% respectively, and with YoY changes of -0.61/0.64/1.11/1.18pct after excluding the impact of the data caliber adjustment by the National Post Office.

Investment advice: Recommend paying attention to leading symbols in subdivided industries with stable profitability.

With the increase in expected volume growth rate of the industry, the overall price competition is controllable. It is expected that in 2024, the profitability of the express delivery sector will significantly recover relative to 2023. We recommend investing in leading symbols such as ZTO Express (02057), with a stable leading position and leading profitability, YTO Express Group (600233.SH) with a combined increase in market share, network stability, and cost advantages, and Yunda Holding (002120.SZ) with business volume growth and improved operational efficiency during expansion periods, as well as STO Express Co., Ltd. (002468.SZ) with high growth in business volume and cost reduction.

Risk warning: Macroeconomic recovery is lower than expected; the express delivery sector's price competition exceeds expectations.

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国联证券：电商促销前置导致6月快递件量增速放缓 旺季提价幅度有限

Guolian Securities: Pre-promotion of e-commerce led to a slowdown in the growth rate of express delivery in June, and the limited increase in prices during the peak season.

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国联证券：电商促销前置导致6月快递件量增速放缓旺季提价幅度有限