FUTU Morning Post

Futu Morning News | Strongly recommended by Morgan Stanley! Tesla up nearly 6%; interest rate cut expectations rise, US bonds will see the longest consecutive rise in three years in July.

热点要闻

美国财政部下调Q3融资预期超千亿美元至7400亿美元，且年底前所持现金余额减少

7月29日周一，美国财政部最新宣布下调7月至9月的今年第三季度向私人出售可销售债务的净融资规模预期至7400亿美元，较4月29日发布的预期8470亿美元调降了1070亿美元，同时预计10月至12月的第四季度将净借款5650亿美元，基本符合市场预期。

美国财政部还称，到9月底、也就是三季度末其持有的现金余额预期维持在8500亿美元不变，并预计到年底所持有的现金余额将为7000亿美元，等于年底前的现金缓冲将进一步减少。

美国联邦政府债务规模突破35万亿美元

美国财政部网站最新数据显示，美国联邦政府债务规模已达34.997万亿美元，距35万亿美元大关仅一步之遥。美国财政部数据显示，截至7月25日，联邦政府债务规模已无限逼近35万亿美元关口。根据美国彼得·彼得森基金会的测算，将这些巨额债务分摊到美国民众身上，相当于每人负债近10.4万美元。

降息预期高涨，美债7月将创三年来最长连涨

随着市场降息预期持续高涨，美国国债价格本月继续攀升。由于近期美债价格上涨，追踪美国国债的彭博美国国债指数7月初迎来累涨约1.3%，自4月末以来回报率增长约3.9%，7月将连续第三个月累涨，创2021年7月以来最长期月度连涨。

尽管周一债券现货市场出现获利回吐的抛售现象，但多位分析师和财经人士预测美联储将在本周的货币政策会议中发出降息信号，为9月降息铺路。富国银行、贝莱德等知名机构预测美联储年内将至少降息两次，甚至有交易员押注9月降息幅度可达50个基点。

高盛：对冲基金“投降式”抛售工业股，继续轮换到能源和材料类股票

据高盛数据，上周工业股是美股中遭遇净抛售最为严重的行业板块，自7月11日以来的两周时间内，工业股以美元计的平仓总额更是创下历史纪录。能源和材料是上周和过去四周净买入最多的行业板块，化学品、石油、天然气和消耗性燃料以及能源设备和服务是上周净买入最多的子行业。

特朗普、哈里斯争相“拉票”加密货币，比特币冲击7万美元后回落

$比特币 (BTC.CC)$在周一早些时候短暂突破了70,000美元，主要受近期比特币 2024大会上，特朗普发出将比特币列为美国战略储备资产等一系列震撼承诺影响；此外，美国民主党总统候选人哈里斯也正积极接触加密货币行业，旨在缓和民主党与该行业的紧张关系。

然而，截至发稿，比特币逆转下跌0.57%，降至66844美元。

美股复盘

美股三大指数涨跌不一，特斯拉大涨超5%

周一，三大指数涨跌不一，道指小幅下跌，标普500指数微涨，纳指盘中一度涨1%，并一度转跌，但最终录得微涨。

截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.12%，报40,539.93点；标普500指数涨0.08%，报5,463.54点；纳斯达克指数涨0.07%，报17,370.20点。

大型科技股多数上涨，英伟达跌1.30%，奈飞跌0.70%，Meta平收，苹果涨0.13%，微软涨0.34%，亚马逊涨0.38%，谷歌涨1.51%，特斯拉涨5.60%。

热门中概股涨跌不一，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.25%，小鹏汽车跌3.17%，拼多多跌2.45%，蔚来汽车跌0.90%，京东涨0.19%，理想汽车涨0.78%，哔哩哔哩涨1.27%，百度涨1.71%，阿里巴巴涨2.73%。

取代福特！大摩将特斯拉列为首选汽车股，预计股价还有40%上涨空间

美东时间7月29日周一，摩根士丹利知名汽车分析师、特斯拉多头Adam Jonas周一发布最新研报，重申对特斯拉股票的增持评级和310美元的目标价。在摩根士丹利的榜单上，特斯拉领跑美国汽车股，福特排名第二。

Jonas强调，由于电动汽车的需求预测已经下降，特斯拉正在减少对其汽车业务的资源投入。削减成本措施和重组努力已经减轻了特斯拉电动汽车业务的下行风险，并在零排放汽车积分市场上占据了主导地位。截至收盘，$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$隔夜涨近6%。

苹果发布AI功能的测试版，目前只对开发者开放

$苹果 (AAPL.US)$周一发布了iOS 18.1、iPadOS 18.1和macOS Sequoia 15.1的开发者测试版，让用户得以体验“苹果智能”的部分功能，目前只对苹果开发者开放。只有部分苹果设备才能提前体验“苹果智能”的功能，包括iPhone 15 Pro、15 Pro Max以及搭载苹果自研芯片的iPad和Mac。

苹果称其人工智能模型是在谷歌的定制芯片上训练，谷歌涨超1%

此外，苹果公司周一在一篇技术论文中表示，支撑其人工智能系统Apple Intelligence的两个人工智能模型是在谷歌设计的云端芯片上进行预训练的。这表明，在训练尖端人工智能方面，大型科技公司正在寻找英伟达以外的替代品。截至收盘，$谷歌-A (GOOGL.US)$收涨1.51%。

英伟达发布新的软件和服务工具，旨在推动人工智能

美东时间7月29日周一，在美国丹佛市举行的计算机图形学和交互技术年度大会和展会SIGGRAPH 2024上，$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$又亮出新工具。

英伟达CEO黄仁勋在SIGGRAPH 2024透露，本周英伟达发送Blackwell架构的样品，这是今年首发的新款芯片架构。同时，英伟达公布了一系列软件更新，主要涉及用于优化人工智能推理的云原生微服务——Nvidia inference micro service，推动企业大规模部署AI模型。

快速普及美FDA批准新的结直肠癌筛查方法，Guardant Health股价大涨近7%

美东时间周一，美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)批准了Guardant Health公司名为Shield的血液检测方法来筛查结直肠癌。虽然这种检测方法并不能取代结肠镜检查，但却可以有效提高美国结直肠癌的筛查率。截至收盘，$Guardant Health (GH.US)$涨近7%。

全面丧失“涨价权”之际，麦当劳果断开打价格战获资本市场好评

$麦当劳 (MCD.US)$最新财报显示，在截至6月30日的二季报中，麦当劳报告营收64.9亿美元，低于市场预期的66.1亿美元；净利润20.2亿美元，同比下降12%，同样低于市场预期。同时，麦当劳计划继续扩张，预计2024年净增1600家门店。

由于麦当劳在通胀压力下已丧失大幅涨价空间，为应对消费者购买力下降，麦当劳采取性价比策略，推出“5美元超值套餐”吸引顾客，当前成效显著并计划延长促销。此举虽未立即反映在财报中，但已助股价逆势上涨。截至收盘，麦当劳涨超3%。

美股成交额TOP20

港市前瞻

北水加仓腾讯近7亿港元，抛售盈富基金近12亿港元

7月29日（周一），南下资金净买入港股7.45亿港元。

$腾讯控股 (00700.HK)$、$中国海洋石油 (00883.HK)$、$洛阳钼业 (03993.HK)$分别获净买入6.79亿港元、2.13亿港元、1.6亿港元；

$盈富基金 (02800.HK)$、$建设银行 (00939.HK)$、$中国神华 (01088.HK)$分别遭净卖出11.64亿港元、3.93亿港元、1.52亿港元。

今日关注

关键词：日本6月失业率、欧元区第二季度GDP年率初值、美国6月JOLTs职位空缺、美国7月谘商会消费者信心指数、微软、AMD财报

周二，经济数据方面，日本将公布6月失业率；欧元区将公布第二季度GDP年率初值；美国将公布5月FHFA房价指数月率、6月JOLTs职位空缺、7月谘商会消费者信心指数等数据。

财经事件方面，国新办举办“推动高质量发展”系列主题新闻发布会，海关总署副署长出席介绍情况，并答记者问；$小鹏汽车 (XPEV.US)$将举行AI智驾技术发布会。

财报方面，$辉瑞 (PFE.US)$、$宝洁 (PG.US)$将于今日公布财报；$PayPal (PYPL.US)$、$瑞幸咖啡 (LKNCY.US)$将于美股盘前发布业绩；$微软 (MSFT.US)$、$美国超微公司 (AMD.US)$将于美股盘后发布业绩。

新股方面，$Pershing Square USA (PSUS.US)$将于今日上市。

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牛牛晨读：

我之所以能有今天的投资成就，是依靠自己的自律和别人的愚蠢。
——巴菲特

编辑/ping

Hot news

The US Treasury Department revised its Q3 funding expectations by more than $100 billion to $740 billion, with a decrease in cash balance held by the end of the year.

On Monday, July 29th, the US Treasury Department announced the latest downward revision of net financing expectations for the sale of privately owned marketable debt in the third quarter of this year to $740 billion, compared to the previously announced expectation of $847 billion on April 29th, which was reduced by $107 billion. At the same time, it is expected that the net borrowing in the fourth quarter from October to December will be $565 billion, basically in line with market expectations.

The US Treasury Department also said that it expects to maintain a cash balance of $850 billion by the end of September, the end of the third quarter, and predicts that its cash balance at the end of the year will be $700 billion, a further reduction in cash reserves before the end of the year.

The US federal government's debt has exceeded $35 trillion.

According to the latest data from the US Department of the Treasury website, the size of the US federal government's debt has reached $34.997 trillion, just one step away from the $35 trillion mark. US Department of the Treasury data shows that as of July 25th, the size of the federal government's debt has approached the $35 trillion mark. According to calculations by the Peter Peterson Foundation, this huge debt burden on the American people is equivalent to nearly $0.104 million per capita.

Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising, and US Treasury bonds are set to record the longest consecutive increase in three years in July.

As the market's interest rate cut expectations continue to rise, the price of US Treasury bonds continued to rise this month. Due to the recent rise in US Treasury bond prices, the Bloomberg US Treasury Index, which tracks US Treasury bonds, saw an accumulated increase of about 1.3% in early July and a growth rate of about 3.9% since the end of April. July will mark the third consecutive month of accumulation since July 2021, which is the longest consecutive monthly gain this year.

Despite the profit-taking selling in the bond spot market on Monday, many analysts and financial experts predict that the Federal Reserve will issue an interest rate cut signal at this week's monetary policy meeting, paving the way for a rate cut in September. Well-known institutions such as Wells Fargo & Co. and BlackRock predicted that the Fed will cut interest rates at least twice this year, and some traders even bet on a rate cut of up to 50 basis points in September.

Goldman Sachs: Hedge funds 'surrender-style' sell-off of industrial stocks, continuing to rotate into energy and materials stocks.

According to Goldman Sachs data, industrial stocks were the most heavily sold industry sector in the US stock market last week, breaking the all-time record for net selling in the past two weeks since July 11th. Energy and materials were the most net-bought industry sectors last week and in the past four weeks, with chemicals, petroleum, natural gas and consumable fuel, and energy equipment and services being the most net-bought sub-sectors last week.

Trump and Harris compete to 'campaign' for cryptos, and Bitcoin falls after challenging the 0.07 million dollar mark.

$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$Earlier on Monday, Bitcoin briefly surpassed $70,000, mainly influenced by a series of shocking promises made at the recent Bitcoin 2024 conference, in which Trump listed Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for the United States, etc. In addition, Democratic presidential candidate Harris is also actively contacting the cryptocurrency industry to ease tensions between the party and the industry.

However, as of press time, Bitcoin reversed its decline and fell by 0.57%, dropping to $66,844.

Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.

The three major US stock indexes rose and fell, and Tesla rose more than 5%.

On Monday, the three major indices rose and fell, with the Dow slightly down, the S&P 500 index slightly up, and the Nasdaq rising 1% at one point and then falling, but ultimately ending slightly higher. At the close, the Dow fell 0.12% to 40,539.93 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.08% to 5,463.54 points; and the Nasdaq rose 0.07% to 17,370.20 points. Most major technology stocks rose, with Nvidia down 1.30%, Netflix down 0.70%, Meta flat, Apple up 0.13%, Microsoft up 0.34%, Amazon up 0.38%, Google up 1.51%, and Tesla up 5.60%.

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.12% to 40,539.93 points; the S&P 500 index rose by 0.08% to 5,463.54 points; and the Nasdaq index rose by 0.07% to 17,370.20 points.

Most large technology stocks rose, with Nvidia down 1.30%, Netflix down 0.70%, Meta flat, Apple up 0.13%, Microsoft up 0.34%, Amazon up 0.38%, Google up 1.51%, and Tesla up 5.60%.

China concept stocks fluctuated, Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.25%, XPeng Auto fell by 3.17%, PDD Holdings fell by 2.45%, NIO Inc. fell by 0.90%, JD.com rose by 0.19%, LI Auto Inc. rose by 0.78%, Bilibili rose by 1.27%, Baidu rose by 1.71%, and Alibaba rose by 2.73%.

Replacing Ford! Daiwa Securities has listed Tesla as its preferred auto stock, expecting a 40% increase in stock price.

On Monday, July 29th, Eastern Time, Adam Jonas, a well-known automotive analyst at Morgan Stanley, reiterated his "buy" rating on Tesla's stock and the target price of $310 in his latest research report. According to Morgan Stanley's ranking list, Tesla leads the US auto stocks, and Ford ranks second.

Jonas emphasized that as the demand for electric vehicles has stagnated, Tesla is reducing its resource investment in its automotive business. Cost cuts and restructuring efforts have reduced the downside risk of Tesla's electric vehicle business and enabled it to dominate the zero-emission vehicle credit market. At close, Tesla rose more than 5%.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Up nearly 6% overnight.

Apple released a test version of its AI feature, which is currently only available to developers.

$Apple (AAPL.US)$Apple released developer test versions of iOS 18.1, iPadOS 18.1, and macOS Sequoia 15.1, allowing users to experience some of the features of "Apple Intelligence," which is currently only available to Apple developers. Only a few Apple devices can experience the features of "Apple Intelligence" in advance, including the iPhone 15 Pro, 15 Pro Max, and iPad and Mac equipped with Apple's self-developed chips.

Apple said that its AI model was trained on Google's custom chips. Google rose more than 1%.

In addition, Apple said in a technical paper on Monday that two AI models supporting its Apple Intelligence system were pretrained on cloud chips designed by Google. This indicates that in training cutting-edge AI, large technology companies are looking for alternatives to Nvidia. At close, Google rose by 1.51%.$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$It rose by 1.51%.

Nvidia has released new software and service tools to promote AI.

At SIGGRAPH 2024, the annual computer graphics and interactive technology conference and exhibition held in Denver, USA on Monday, July 29th Eastern Time,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$It has introduced new tools again.

Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun revealed at SIGGRAPH 2024 that Nvidia sent samples of the Blackwell architecture this week, the new chip architecture launched this year. At the same time, Nvidia announced a series of software updates, mainly involving cloud-native microservices for optimizing AI inference-Nvidia inference microservices, promoting large-scale deployment of AI models by enterprises.

With the rapid promotion of a new colon cancer screening method approved by the US FDA, Guardant Health's stock price soared nearly 7%.

On Monday Eastern Time, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Guardant Health's blood test method called Shield to screen for colon cancer. Although this detection method cannot replace colonoscopy, it can effectively improve the screening rate of colon cancer in the United States. At the close, $Guardant Health (GH.US)$ rose by nearly 7%.$Guardant Health (GH.US)$Electronic component producer, KEMET, rose nearly 7% this week.

On the occasion of losing all price-raising rights, McDonald's decisively launched a price war and won praise from the capital market.

mcdonald's (MCD.US) According to the second-quarter report ending on June 30, McDonald's reported revenue of $6.49 billion, lower than the market's expected $6.61 billion; net profit was $2.02 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, also lower thanmarket expectations. At the same time, McDonald's plans to continue to expand, with a net increase of 1,600 stores expected by 2024.

As McDonald's has lost considerable room for price increases under inflationary pressures, to cope the decreasing consumer purchasing power, McDonald's has adopted a cost-effective strategy and launched a "5-dollar value meal" to attract customers. This move has significantly contributed to its stock price rising against the trend. At close, McDonald's rose more than 3%.

If you want to play this game, you must believe in yourself and your judgment.

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

Northbound capital increased its position in Tencent by nearly HKD 0.7 billion and sold its holdings in Tracker Fund of Hong Kong by nearly HKD 1.2 billion.

On Monday, July 29th, capital outflows from the north resulted in a net purchase of HKD 0.745 billion in Hong Kong stocks.

$TENCENT (00700.HK)$,$CNOOC (00883.HK)$,$CMOC (03993.HK)$Received net purchase of HKD 0.679 billion, 0.213 billion and 0.16 billion respectively.

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$CCB (00939.HK)$,$CHINA SHENHUA (01088.HK)$Experienced net sales of HKD 1.164 billion, 0.393 billion and 0.152 billion respectively.

The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

On Tuesday, Japan will release its June unemployment rate. The eurozone will release the Q2 GDP annual rate initial value. The US will release May FHFA House Price Index, June JOLTs job openings, and the July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.

Regarding financial events, the State Council Information Office will hold a series of theme press conferences on promoting high quality development and the deputy director of the General Administration of Customs will attend to introduce the situation and answer questions. An AI driving technology release conference will be held.

Earnings will be released before the US stock market opens.$XPeng (XPEV.US)$Earnings will be released after the US stock market closes.

Regarding financial reports,$Pfizer (PFE.US)$,$Procter & Gamble (PG.US)$Financial report will be released today;$PayPal (PYPL.US)$,$Luckin Coffee (LKNCY.US)$Financial results will be released in pre-market trading;$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$,$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$Financial results will be released in post-market trading.

Regarding IPOs,$Pershing Square USA (PSUS.US)$Will be listed today.

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Futubull Morning News:

The reason for my investment success today is due to my own self-discipline and the foolishness of others.
- Buffett

Editor/ping

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