Airfinity has revised its forecast for the U.S. RSV vaccine market from $4.7 billion per year to $1.7 billion, down 64%, to reflect revised guidance. Product structure, 10-30 billion yuan products operating income of 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.
After a panel of experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) narrowed its recommendations for RSV immunization last month, healthcare analytics firm Airfinity lowered its market forecast for elderly respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines in the United States this week by 64%.
In June of this year, the U.S. CDC Advisory Committee recommended a single lifetime RSV vaccine for people aged 75 and over, after which Airfinity revised its forecast. The Immunization Practice Advisory Committee (ACIP) of the U.S. CDC also refused to recommend RSV vaccines to adults aged 60-74 who were not at high risk for RSV.
The latest data prompted Airfinity to revise its forecast for the U.S. RSV vaccine market from $4.7 billion per year to $1.7 billion, down 64%, to reflect the revised guidance, which the company said would reduce the estimated eligible population by 44%, to 46 million.
The U.S. RSV vaccine market includes three companies. In May of this year, the FDA approved the RSV vaccine (mRESVIA), which is designed to prevent lower respiratory tract disease caused by the disease in people aged 60 and over.$Moderna (MRNA.US)$Last year,
Last year, $GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.US)$And.$Pfizer (PFE.US)$became the first FDA-approved RSV vaccine, and the agency approved their more traditional vaccines, Arexvy and Abrysvo, for the same indications.
In addition, ACIP delayed its expected recommendation for the high-risk population aged 50 to 59, and the FDA expanded Arexvy's label in June.
This delay could have an impact of about $0.3 billion on $GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.WI.US)$and an even greater impact on GlaxoSmithKline, which used priority review vouchers worth $20 million to $0.1 billion to accelerate brand expansion.
Isabella Huettner, Airfinity's RSV lead, said, "ACIP's recommendation could hinder revenue growth in the U.S. market unless new data can support the benefits of strengthening the vaccine." She added that the three market-paying companies would benefit from global promotion.
This winter, major countries in the UK, Canada, and the EU will launch their first RSV immunization programs. Huettner added, "Nevertheless, the trend appears to be recommending a lifetime vaccine for those aged 75 and over, as confirmed recently by the UK."
Editor/ping