At the just-concluded Bitcoin 2024 conference, Trump made a series of eye-catching promises to the crypto industry, demonstrating his determination to win support in this area. Specifically, Trump promised to list Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset of the United States, dismiss the current SEC chairman, establish a Bitcoin Presidential Commission, encourage power plants to strengthen electrical utilities supply for Bitcoin mining, and stated that Bitcoin market cap will surpass gold in the future.

Inspired by this news, Bitcoin's price accelerated, and it approached the $70,000 mark today, with a cumulative rebound of nearly 20% since the low point on July 5th. The market is currently closely watching whether Bitcoin can return to the 'high point' of March and even create a new all-time high.

It's worth noting that US Democratic presidential candidate Harris seems to be unwilling to be outdone. According to reports, she is in contact with the US crypto industry to ease the tense relationship between the Democratic Party and the crypto industry.$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$Speeding up, it reached nearly $70,000 today, up nearly 20% since the July 5th low. The market is closely watching whether bitcoin can return to the "highlight moment" of March or even set a new historical high.

How is the future of the crypto market? In addition to the stimulation of the two candidates' attempts to win over the crypto industry, the crypto market has seen multiple bullish factors this year, including the approval of Bitcoin spot ETF and Ethereum spot ETF, the arrival of the fourth 'halving', and the gradual entry of the Federal Reserve into the interest rate reduction cycle.

In fact, for highly volatile assets like Bitcoin, historical data is not only valuable wealth in the hands of investors, but also the key to insight into future price trends.

According to comprehensive reports, the Harris team has recently contacted with some people related to major cryptos companies, who come from well-known enterprises such as the largest US cryptos exchange Coinbase, stablecoin company Circle and blockchain payment company Ripple Labs.

First of all, the price trajectory of Bitcoin shows a very significant cyclical characteristic, of which the four-year bull market cycle is particularly prominent, which undoubtedly provides important clues for predicting market trends.

Previously, we wrote an article stating that Bitcoin follows the rule of 'rise for three years, and fall for one year', that is, it rises in the year before halving, the halving year, and the year after halving, and then falls for one year.

In addition, this trend is further evident in this round of the cycle. In 2023, the year before halving, BTC realized a 157% increase, and the cumulative increase this year (the year of halving) has reached 50%.

Secondly, since this year, the approval of Bitcoin spot ETF has stimulated a wave of outbreak in the crypto market, and Bitcoin has even surpassed silver to become the world's eighth-largest asset. With the recent approval of the Ethereum spot ETF, the market is looking forward to the arrival of the second round of the crypto market bull run.

Finally, although Bitcoin is considered a highly speculative asset, analysts believe that its further rise may partially depend on the situation of interest rate reductions. In fact, the chart below shows that the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2020 accompanied Bitcoin's strong rebound.

It has been mentioned in previous articles that Bitcoin follows the rule of "rising for three years and falling for one year," that is, rising in the year before the halving, the halving year, and the year after the halving, and then falling for a year.

Furthermore, this trend has become even more obvious this round as Bitcoin achieved a 157% gain in 2023, the year before the halving, and has already risen by 50% cumulatively since the beginning of this year (the halving year).

Secondly, this year, the approval of Bitcoin spot ETF has stimulated a boom in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin even surpassing silver to become the world's eighth largest asset at one point. With the recent approval of Ether spot ETF, the market is even more anticipating the arrival of the second wave of bull market in the "coin circle."

Finally, although Bitcoin is regarded as a highly speculative asset, analysts believe that its further rise prospects may depend in part on the situation of interest rate cuts. In fact, as can be seen from the chart below, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2020 have been accompanied by a strong rebound in Bitcoin.

What are the investment opportunities in the Hong Kong and US stock markets other than cryptocurrencies?

As the enthusiasm of the cryptocurrency market has been ignited, ETFs and concept stocks related to Bitcoin in the Hong Kong and US stock markets have also erupted.

From the recent stock price performance, cryptocurrency ETFs have performed well in the Hong Kong stock market, with double-digit gains this month, of which Xie Shares Ether-ETF rose as high as 51% this year and Yixin Precious Metals ETF rose as much as 32%.$Harvest Bitcoin Spot ETF (03439.HK)$,$Bosera HashKey Bitcoin ETF (03008.HK)$,$ChinaAMC Bitcoin ETF (03042.HK)$,$CSOP Bitcoin Futures ETF (03066.HK)$This month has seen double-digit growth, with $CSOP Bitcoin Futures ETF (03066.HK)$an increase of up to 51% so far this year, and $CSOP Ether Futures ETF (03068.HK)$a high of 32%.

In the US stock market, cryptos concept stocks rose across the board in pre-market trading, and these companies have also performed well this year.$MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$Mining stocks rose by more than 40%, among others, increasing 177% this year, becoming one of the few stocks on the US market to outperform Nvidia. Exchanges also recorded a nearly 40% increase. As of press time, all crypto concept stocks are rising pre-market.$TeraWulf (WULF.US)$,$CleanSpark (CLSK.US)$,$Cipher Mining (CIFR.US)$Exchanges also recorded an increase of nearly 40%. As of press time, all cryptos concept stocks are rising before the market opens.$Coinbase (COIN.US)$Also recorded a nearly 40% increase.

Mooers,

In the US stock market, cryptos stocks have also performed well this year, with a staggering increase of 177%, becoming one of the few stocks in the US market that outperforms Nvidia, with mining stocks and others rising by more than 40%, and exchanges also recording nearly 40% of the increase. As of press time, all cryptos concept stocks are rising before the market opens.

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Editor/Somer