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财报前瞻 | 亚马逊Q2财报公布在即 ,华尔街关注点有哪些?

Financial report preview: What are Wall Street's focus points for Amazon's upcoming Q2 financial report release?

Zhitong Finance ·  14:08

Wall Street analysts predict that Amazon's Q2 revenue will be $148.6 billion with an EPS of $1.02.

$Amazon (AMZN.US)$The Q2 2024 financial results will be announced on August 1. Wall Street analysts predict that Amazon's Q2 revenue will be $148.6 billion, with an EPS of $1.02. They also expect an operating profit of $13.7 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of $32.1 billion. Additionally, analysts predict that AWS revenue, their cloud computing business, will grow 17.2% YoY to $25.9 billion, while advertising revenue will increase 21.1% YoY to $13 billion.

During the earnings call following the announcement of the financial report, traders may seek information on the expected financial impact of Amazon Prime Day, which took place on July 11-12, and will be included in the Q3 results.

Morgan Stanley believes that Amazon's AWS revenue needs to grow at least 18% YoY to demonstrate some growth momentum and establish AWS's position in the generative AI and their ability to grow rapidly during a period of large capital expenditures.

Bank of America expects Amazon's Q2 earnings to exceed expectations, with new 3P (third-party seller) fees and Prime advertising pushing profit margins up. The biggest risks to profit margin guidance are rising shipping costs and the tendency to launch new capacity before the holiday season in Q3. In terms of valuation, Bank of America analyst Justin Post and his team believe that the stock's valuation of 30.7x the 2025 GAAP EPS is reasonable, considering that Amazon's two-year GAAP EPS is expected to grow at an annual rate of 27%.

Wedbush Securities is interested in Amazon's retail performance and continued market share growth. Analyst Dan Ives expects the company's operating profit margin to increase, driven by the transition to higher-profit businesses, accelerating AWS growth, and AI monetization. Before Amazon's earnings announcement, the analyst set a target price of $225 for Amazon, showing confidence in the company.

Jefferies Financial remains optimistic about Amazon's financial results. Analyst Brent Thill focuses on EBITDA. He said, "The market generally believes that EBITDA will be 14% higher than the median expectation, far below the average level of 74% since Q4 2020, and on par with the lowest level since Q3 2021." He reminded investors that Amazon's EBITDA guidance is usually conservative, and that the positive mix effect of faster-growing and higher-margin AWS and advertising, as well as continued growth in e-commerce fulfillment optimization, should allow Amazon to expand its 'harvesting' mode.

Amazon is one of the most popular large-cap stocks in the US stock market. Among the 61 analysts who gave ratings, 59 of them rated Amazon as "buy" or higher. Amazon has exceeded earnings expectations for five consecutive quarters, averaging 35% higher than market expectations. The company's revenue has also exceeded expectations for five consecutive quarters, averaging 2.2% higher than the market's expectations. The options market suggests that the company's stock price will rise 7% after the earnings report is released.

It's worth noting that Amazon has a close relationship with many retail stocks. In the week following Amazon's earnings release, the stocks most closely related to the company are: $MercadoLibre(MELI.US)$, $Wayfair(W.US)$, and dollar general. The trading correlation between these stocks and Amazon is negative after the financial report is released.$Costco (COST.US)$,$Walmart (WMT.US)$,$MercadoLibre (MELI.US)$, $Instacart(Maplebear) (CART.US)$) and$Wayfair (W.US)$.$Target (TGT.US)$And.$Dollar General (DG.US)$The correlation between the company's release of its financial report and trade with Amazon is negative.

Another important stock to watch is$Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$MercadoLibre holds 17% of this company's stocks. Amazon currently has 0.015 million electric delivery vehicles and plans to reach 0.1 million by 2030. Since Amazon's last financial report, Rivian has announced a partnership with Volkswagen.

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