According to Futu Securities, Cui Dongshu, the Secretary-General of China Passenger Car Association, stated that the retail sales of new energy vehicles in June were 0.855 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29% and a month-on-month increase of 6%. The accumulated retail sales in the first half of 2024 were 4.11 million units, an increase of 33% year-on-year. At present, it is expected that the growth rate of 2024 will gradually slow down, and the retail growth rate from July to December is expected to be lower than that of 2023. However, the annual expectations are still very hopeful. In June 2024, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the market showed a stable trend, with a continuous increase from May, achieving the end-of-quarter sales surge. Compared to last year, the recent trend has continued to strengthen.

In 2024, China's auto market achieved a strong performance in the first half of the year due to the earlier Spring Festival-related factors. The domestic new energy landscape changed dramatically in 2024, with more obvious head effects and relatively strong high-end market. Generally, new emerging forces like NIO and Li Auto did well, whereas traditional automakers like Wuling, Geely, and Changan had a strong performance in new energy vehicles in June.

Monthly manufacturer wholesale trend for new energy passenger vehicles in June 2024

From January to June 2024, the monthly manufacturer wholesale growth rate of new energy passenger vehicles maintained a steady growth rate of 30%. In June, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 0.982 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29% and a month-on-month increase of 9%. The 9% month-on-month increase in June 2024 was relatively low compared to the previous years.

The month-on-month trend of new energy vehicles in June 2024 showed a steady and upward trend, reaching a new high of the year. The rebound in the manufacturer sales of new energy vehicles in June was driven by new products and price stability, particularly the release of new product expectations from BYD and Xiaomi, promoting demand recovery and strong trends in June.

Export trend of new energy vehicles in June 2024.

In June 2024, the export of new energy vehicles was 0.08 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13% and a month-on-month decrease of 18%. The cumulative export from January to June 2024 was 0.59 million units, an increase of 21% year-on-year.

The beginning of the year for the export of new energy vehicles in 2024 was relatively good, but in February, it declined significantly. However, sales rebounded strongly from March to April, but declined significantly from May to June. Recently, due to the impact of external factors, the export market of automakers has become more diversified, offsetting the risks resulting from weak demand for exports to Europe and the impact of increased tariffs. Thus, the export in June remained at a relatively strong level. The export of independent new energy vehicles is differentiated, and the export of new energy vehicles by foreign companies declined significantly.

Features of new energy passenger vehicles use

From 2018 to 2019, the proportion of leasing new energy passenger vehicles continued to increase, but the proportion of pure electric leasing began to decline in 2020. In 2024, the proportion of leasing is 8.4%, and the proportion of rentals in June is 8.1%. Private consumption is strong.

Recently, the proportion of plug-in hybrids in the private market has also continued to increase, while the demand for plug-in hybrids in leasing has continued to decline, and pure electric is still the best choice for leasing. The proportion of pure electric leasing in June has significantly increased compared to before the Spring Festival.

The performance of regional markets is gradually improving.

In the past few years, new energy passenger vehicles were mainly in strong demand in cities with purchase restrictions, but they have been declining recently. After excluding the purchase restriction factors of massive cities, the proportion of pure electric new energy passenger vehicles in massive cities in 2024 accounted for a decrease of 3.3 percentage points compared to that in 2023, which also indicates that the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles in massive cities is gradually slowing down, and the vehicle and basic population scale constrain demand. Due to the large population base and poor public transportation, medium-sized cities have strong market demand recently, and new energy in county and township markets is gradually starting.

The performance of new energy city markets is gradually improving.

The main force in the increased quantity of new energy vehicles in June 2024 were high-sales cities such as Xi'an and Chengdu, which contributed a large quota. The new energy vehicle growth in cities such as Xuzhou in June was relatively strong. The regional markets that declined the most were markets such as Shanghai.

Relative to the same period in 2023, new energy is still growing significantly in 2024, and growth in cities such as Xi'an and Beijing is relatively strong, forming the core driving force for incremental growth.

Regional penetration rate of pure electric passenger vehicles in June 2024

The proportion of pure electric vehicles in cities with purchase restrictions has remained stable, increasing from 18% in June 2021 to 34% in 2024. In non-restricted cities, the sales proportion of pure electric vehicles in large, medium-sized and small cities is basically the same. In June 2024, the proportion of pure electric vehicles in medium-sized cities increased to 27%, while the penetration rate of county townships market rose to 21%.

The market penetration rate of plug-in hybrids is continuously increasing all over the country, especially in super cities, where the plug-in hybrid car market proportion reached 18% in June 2024. The market proportion of plug-in hybrids in small and medium-sized cities has also continued to increase. The gap in penetration rate of plug-in hybrids among various types of cities has relatively narrowed. Due to the impetus of the plug-in hybrid license plate policy, Shanghai's plug-in hybrid proportion in June rebounded by 7% to 10%.

Market trend in Beijing.

The market trend of new energy vehicles in Beijing is relatively stable in 2024, with sales reaching 0.029 million units in June, which is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years, and license plate indicators are fully digested. Since the relatively tight supply of new energy vehicle indicators in 2018, the Beijing new energy vehicle market has shown a contrast with the national trend in 2022, and the current growth rate is relatively low. Some users who purchased cars in 2018 should change their vehicles, but the overall market volume is still not high, which is the effect of the restrained consumption caused by the indicator issuance rhythm. The sales of new energy vehicles in Beijing in the second half of last year were good, which is considered relatively strong in June, considering the lack of indicators and the limited supply of Tesla. The overall level of new energy vehicles in Beijing is pragmatic, which is also a reflection of good household demand.

The trend of new energy markets in Shanghai

The new policy trend in Shanghai market is significantly different from that in Beijing market, and the trend from 2019 to 2021 is extremely stable. From December 2022, there was a year-end shopping spree, which brought overdraft depression at the beginning of the year, and the early sales volume in 2024 dropped significantly. In June 2024, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Shanghai reached 0.024 million, a 35% decrease from 0.037 million in June last year. The impact of the policy adjustment on Shanghai's new energy vehicles last year has gradually recovered, and the impact of the license plate policy tightening on the early Shanghai car market is relatively large.

The trend of new energy passenger vehicles in limited cities

The performance of new energy vehicles in limited cities is relatively strong, reaching a level of 0.224 million units in June 2024, with a good growth rate of 34%. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2024 reached 1.04 million, reflecting the continued growth of new energy vehicle demand in limited cities.

The trend of new energy passenger vehicles in areas without purchase or running restrictions

Non-doubly restricted cities, that is, areas where fuel vehicles are unrestricted in terms of purchase and running. Since traditional cars are unrestricted in terms of purchase and running, the demand for new energy vehicles in these cities is true market demand. At present, non-doubly restricted cities are also growing relatively rapidly. These cities have relatively wide regional distribution in the country, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles is currently at a relatively high level. In 2022, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in non-doubly restricted cities reached 2.73 million units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 96%, showing a strong growth trend. The performance of new energy vehicles in non-doubly restricted cities in 2023 was excellent, with sales volume of 4.06 million units, and the sales from January to June 2024 were strong, with a growth rate of 34% and sales volume of 2.32 million units.