煤-油价差扩大，煤制烯烃成本优势凸显。2Q24 布伦特原油均价达到85.0美元/桶，环比1Q24 上涨3.3 美元/桶；国内秦皇岛动力煤价格为848 元/吨，环比1Q24 下降53.3 元/吨；油价相比煤价运行较为强势。2Q24 煤制烯烃价差达3,755 元/吨，环比1Q24 扩大18.2%，煤制烯烃成本优势持续凸显。公司烯烃三期项目投产后平稳运行。公司宁东三期100 万吨烯烃项目投产后运行平稳，工艺指标不断优化，且公司烯烃产能实现大幅提升。1H24 net profit to mother increased 46.4% year over year
The company announced that 1H24 expects revenue of 16.895 billion yuan, +29.1% year over year; net profit to mother of 3.304 billion yuan, +46.4% year over year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 3.543 billion yuan, +45.5% year over year. In other words, 2Q24 achieved revenue of 8.868 billion yuan, +36.4% year over month; net profit to mother of 1.883 billion yuan, +75.7% year on year, +32.5% month on month; net profit without return to mother 2.061 billion yuan, +78.3% year on year, +39.1% month on month. Olefin production increased year-on-year after the company's Phase III olefin project was put into operation, and the performance was in line with our expectations.
Key points of interest
The coal-oil price gap has widened, and the cost advantage of coal-to-olefin has become prominent. The average price of Brent crude oil reached 85.0 US dollars/barrel in 2Q24, up 3.3 US dollars/barrel from 1Q24; domestic thermal coal prices in Qinhuangdao were 848 yuan/ton, down 53.3 yuan/ton from 1Q24; oil prices were strong compared to coal prices. The 2Q24 coal-to-olefin price spread reached 3,755 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.2% over 1Q24, and the cost advantage of coal-to-olefin continued to be prominent. The company's Olefin Phase III project ran smoothly after it was put into operation. After the company's Ningdong Phase III 1 million ton olefin project was put into operation, process indicators were continuously optimized, and the company's olefin production capacity was greatly increased.
Since 0.25 million tons of EVA were put into production in 1q24, the conversion from foam materials to photovoltaic materials has been completed, and the design production capacity has been reached.
The Inner Mongolia project is progressing steadily, and profit certainty is high. The company's 3 million ton coal-to-olefin and green-hydrogen coupled olefin project in Inner Mongolia progressed smoothly, and the company plans to start production in 3Q24. The project uses DMTO-III technology, further reducing the investment cost per ton, and we think it is expected to obtain a higher level of profitability compared to the East Ningxia base. This technical route has been verified in the Ningdong Phase III project, and there is a high degree of certainty that production will be achieved in 4Q24. After the project is put into operation, the company's olefin production capacity will increase to 5.2 million tons, which we believe is expected to bring a significant increase in the company's performance.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Maintain 2024/2025 net profit of 7.121 billion yuan/14.869 billion yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 15.7 times the 2024 price-earnings ratio and 7.5 times the 2025 price-earnings ratio. Maintaining an outperforming industry rating and maintaining a target price of 20.3 yuan, corresponding to 20.9 times the price-earnings ratio of 2024 and 10.0 times the price-earnings ratio of 2025, there is 33.0% upside compared to the current stock price.
risks
The risk of polyolefin price fluctuations; the risk of coal price fluctuations; the risk of coking coal and coke price fluctuations; the risk of project approval and construction falling short of expectations.
